Today CNN's Schneider posits that Repugs voted for Edwards to get at JK

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0402/19/ip.01.html

SCHNEIDER: Meanwhile, Republicans are spoiling for a fight between Edwards and Kerry. They want to see Kerry get bloodied up. You know, maybe that's why we found in our exit poll that Republicans who voted in Wisconsin's Democratic primary on Tuesday went strongly for Edwards -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Wasn't that interesting? We did notice that. All right. Bill Schneider, thank you very much.

[West Coast Democrat]

1. no duh!!

But it'll backfire, because the public loves both of them, and the more media time the better.

[lancdem]

15. Yep

You are correct!

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. Yesterday he was a RW shill, today he's a pundit.

I wish I could stay on the same page of the Kerry campaign's songbook as some of the rest of you.

[flpoljunkie]

6. A conservative pundit, but one who can read poll results, nevertheless

Guess he hadn't thoroughly reviewed his own organization's polling yesterday. Republican votes made up a total of 15.6% of Edward's vote total--44,343 out of 283,326.

[Cuban_Liberal]

8. So?

Your point? It's still not proof of a GOP strategic-voting effort. :shrug:

[flpoljunkie]

10. Then explain this inconsistency...

Perhaps this will explain it better...

Forty-four percent of the 12% of the Wisconsin voters who described themselves as satisfied with the Bush administration voted for John Edward's.

Thirty-six percent of the 5% of those Wisconsin voters who described themselves as enthusiastic about the Bush administration voted for John Edwards.

These kinds of questions are asked by pollsters to try to determine if people are perhaps voting strategically.

[spooky3]

11. source for this? The only exit poll I have seen does not break down by 2

variables at a time. This is the exit poll linked at CNN & MSN. There is no way to know how many Rethugs were satisfied with * adm. and voted for each candidate. You can ascertain only how many of ALL voters were satisfied with * adm. and voted for each Dem, or how many Rethugs voted for each.

[Cuban_Liberal]

13. Yep--- apples and oranges.

You nailed it. :)

[flpoljunkie]

16. Do you really think any Dems would be satisfied or enthusiastic about Bush

Please. These voters were Rethugs.

[spooky3]

17. I absolutely do, but what's more to the point is

if you do not have the data to back it up, don't expect to convince me. And please present accurately the data that you DO have. Your interpretation is not the same as the data.

I believe there are other errors in the your interpretations of the numbers from the CNN-linked exit poll. I carefully pointed these out to you on an earlier thread, so there is no need to repeat them here.

Finally, national polls usually show that at least 10% of Democrats say they will vote for Bush, and many more approve of the job he has done. Not all Democrats think the way DU Democrats do.

[gasperc]

22. and 32% of the enthusiastic Bush supports picked Dean

So why would 68% of enthusiastic Bush supporters pick Dean or Edwards, Snieder was a fuck wad the other day for saying that there was no evidence of Republicans voting strategically.
Shit a prison escapee could rob a bank with these assholes watching.
Fine, treat us like we're stupid. Chandler kicked major ass in Kentucky.

:kick:

[spooky3]

18. and about 20000 of Kerry's votes and a comparable proportion of Dean's

[flpoljunkie]

19. Actually 13,378...Four percent of JK's votes compared to Edwards's 15.6%

[spooky3]

24. well, since I was estimating the 20000 from your figure for Edwards above

because I recalled that Kerry got a bit less than half as many Repug. votes, then we need to check your original your figure for Edwards. Sure enough, your calculation is about 11000 Repug. votes too high.

[spooky3]

23. your calculations are wrong again

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.htm

Of approximately 825000 votes cast, 9% were cast by self-reported Republicans. Of these 44% went to Edwards. .44X.09X825000 = 32670 votes, not 44,343,

or 11.53%, not 15.6% of Edwards' total vote.

I really wish one didn't have to audit the calculations each time you post these things.

[flpoljunkie]

26. Correction. Edward's GOP vote totaled 11.5% vs. John Kerry's 4%.

Mistakenly used the difference between their vote totals (messy notes, not intentional) which was 44,343, rather than Edward's GOP vote total of 32,703, which was 44% of the total GOP Wisconsin vote in the Democratic primary.

This does not change the hypothesis that the GOP was trying to throw a wrench into the Democratic primary process.

[King of New Orleans]

3. I'd swear that the night before

Schneider said he didn't see any strategic voting by the Repugs.

For the record, I think there wasn't any strategic effort by the Repugs. There were other issue on the ballot, it was an open primary, they thought what the heck, I'll vote on this too, and Edwards was their choice, whether they would vote for him in the fall, I don't know.

Also, at most the effect was for only two or three points for Edwards. Edwards deserved the showing he got.

[Cuban_Liberal]

5. He said there was no strategic voting yesterday morning.

I heard him say it at on the 10:00 a.m. CST CNN segment.

[scarface2004]

4. golly gee bill!!!

didn t know that...thanks for the info you moron!

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Well I'll be damned!

:wow: :crazy: :eyes:

[Rowdyboy]

9. It was a cheap a shot as I've ever seen on that show

And thats saying a LOT! What unmitigated trash

[spooky3]

12. well at least he said "maybe" rather than asserting it as a fact

which some folks here have done! :-)

[Qutzupalotl]

14. The thing is, the longer Edwards stays in the race,

the more the Democrats get their message out in the media. This is a good thing for us, and a bad thing for Republicans. So it's a shortsighted strategy on their part, and therefore likely. :)

On edit: To Edwards' credit, he'll probably stay fairly positive the whole time. So it's a win for the Democrats if they keep debating.

[jpgpenn]

20. most here knew this long before this post!

[Cuban_Liberal]

27. Did many also know that 4% of Sen. KERRY'S votes came from Republicans?

Sorta shoots that whole 'strategic voting' thing in the ass, doesn't it? :eyes:

[Democat]

21. The right wingers aren't the only ones trying to destroy Kerry

Look around DU today. There are plenty of people here who would like to see Bush win because Kerry got more votes than their candidate and they want revenge.

[Cuban_Liberal]

28. Oh, the melodrama!

This whole 'revenge' thing is a figment of most people's imagination. Dare we consider the possibilty that many--- nay, I assert MOST--- who oppose Sen. Kerry's nomination/coronation do so on the simple basis that he will not be the strongest candidate to face Bush in November?

God forbid that we should think so, huh? :eyes:

[DaisyUCSB]

25. Bill Shneider, a senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute

but I'm sure he has democrat interests at heart here right?