Gallup: Democrats have rarely had a front-runner as dominant as Clinton

Lobster Martini

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Mon Oct-22-07 02:21 PM
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Gallup: Democrats have rarely had a front-runner as dominant as Clinton

Clinton�s Lead in Historical Perspective
Leads greater than 20 points rare for Democrats

PRINCETON, NJ -- The most recent USA Today/Gallup poll finds Sen. Hillary Clinton extending her already sizable lead over Barack Obama for Democrats' 2008 presidential nomination preference. Half of Democrats say they are most likely to support her for the nomination, and her 29-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama is the largest she has held to date...leads greater than 20 percentage points have been rare in past Democratic campaigns, but historically those who have enjoyed such a large lead in Gallup Polls this late in the year won the nomination the following year.

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Clinton's Lead in Historical Perspective
Since the 1972 campaign -- when the power to choose the party nominees was shifted from national convention delegates to voters in state primaries and caucuses -- Democrats have rarely had a front-runner as dominant as Clinton. In four of eight contested nomination campaigns from 1972 to 2004, no candidate had a lead of 20 points in a Gallup Poll at any point during the year prior to the election. In two other campaigns, this occurred just once during that time. Only in 1979 (Sen. Ted Kennedy) and 1999 (former Vice President Al Gore) were front-runners able to sustain a lead of that magnitude for several polls.

Kennedy and Hart ultimately lost their nomination bids, but their large leads came much earlier in the campaigns. Kennedy's candidacy lost its steam when Jimmy Carter's popularity surged in late 1979 following the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Hart's 20-point lead occurred in the last poll taken before he suspended his campaign after the press was able to confirm rumors he was having an extramarital affair.

Mondale and Gore, who like Clinton held their large leads much later in the campaign, both went on to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Moreover, Mondale and Gore saw their leads expand between the start of the election year and the Iowa Caucuses. Both then won the Iowa caucuses, though Mondale would subsequently lose the New Hampshire primary to Hart and see his lead disappear. Mondale recovered and had the nomination well in hand by April. Gore won the 2000 New Hampshire primary over Bradley and easily won the nomination.

Clinton is also just the third Democratic presidential candidate to have reached 50% support on Gallup's national ballot in the year prior to the election, joining Kennedy in 1979 and Gore in 1999. Gore's long run of support in excess of 50% is partly attributable to the fact that he had just one challenger for the nomination.

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Implications
By now, it is obvious that Clinton is extremely well-positioned to win the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Her status as the front-runner seems to be strengthening at an opportune time with the Iowa Caucuses less than three months away. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that she could stumble and not win the nomination as did Kennedy and Hart, but those cases occurred under rather extreme circumstances. Also, those candidates held their large leads long before any votes were cast. Because of her large lead this close to the first official contest, one would expect the Clinton campaign to "play it safe" and not take the sort of risks that could derail her campaign. Indeed, the perception is that she is already "moving toward the center" by taking more moderate positions on issues that Democratic primary voters may not necessarily endorse, but that may position her better for the general election campaign against the Republican. At the same time, her chief rivals Obama and Edwards find themselves in a position where they may have no choice but to step up their attacks on her in an effort to weaken her standing.

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(Link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/102265/Clintons-Lead-Historical-Perspective.aspx)