Clinton Pollster Predicts Defection Of GOP Women

[RamboLiberal]

Mark Penn, the pollster and senior strategist of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, predicted Thursday that nearly a quarter of Republican women would defect from the GOP if the New York senator is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008.

At a breakfast with political reporters, Penn said his internal polling shows Clinton would win over some 24 percent of Republican women in the 2008 general election because of the “emotional” appeal of electing the country’s first woman president.

Penn said the trend is as evident in the South, a region Democratic presidential candidates have had trouble winning in recent elections, as in all other regions of the country.

Penn said the trend indicates that Clinton would be a stronger Democratic presidential candidate in the South than either Al Gore was in 2000 or John Kerry was in 2004.

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/washington/washington/entries/2007/10/18/clinton_pollste.html

I don't buy it, but hope he is correct if Clinton is the nominee.

[Clark2008]

1. Where are Democratic women going to go?

[aquart]

4. Members of the Democratic party who are women will vote the party choice.

Because we're Democrats and we respect democratic process. Do you?

[ShortnFiery]

23. Yeah!

PEOPLE (not HRC) over Party!

Now and always. :thumbsup:

[Clark2008]

24. Of course I do.

So respect me if I, as a woman, don't vote for the Democrat just because she's a woman. I haven't made up my mind on HRC in the general election, yet. Hell, I can't figure out which corporate slug to vote for in the primary, for that matter. I really think all the candidates - on both sides of the aisle - stink worse than my baby's diaper.

To be frank, she won't win my state by any stretch of the imagination, with or without my vote, so I'm pretty free to vote for a third party, should I democratically choose to do so.

[dugggy]

48. Are you saying we democrats vote like robots?

We vote our party regardless of who is nominated?
We don't have a thinking brain? And you call that
democratic? WOW!!

[sufrommich]

51. Democrats usually for for Democrats in the

presidential election.Hence,the label "Democrat".

[dugggy]

65. But the republicans don't follow that pattern, is that it?

So you are saying Mark Penn is wrong? The republicans are
"republicans" by your theory.

All I am saying is that a good chunk of either party votes
outside of party lines. How else can you explain the Reagan
landslide of 1984?

[sufrommich]

72. That didn't appear to be "all you were saying"

Here's what you said:
"We don't have a thinking brain? And you call that
democratic? WOW!!"
What's that got to do with jumping party lines?

[dugggy]

85. Conclusion: there are crossover votes in every election n/t

[LanternWaste]

81. I think the implication was that Democrats, by definition vote for Democrats

I think the implication was that Democrats, by definition vote for Democrats. I don't think the lack of a brain was implied in any sense (most likely a rather melodramatic bit of conjecture on your part).

[dugggy]

87. I understand that, but I got the impression from that post

that all democrats will vote 100% for democrats. That
has not been true in a single election. That is why we
have had landslides on both sides. LBJ had a landslide.
Reagan had a landslide. That conclusively proves my point
that you can not count on 100% compliance in either party.

[Schema Thing]

9. To hell if they don't change

lol, sorry, don't get too many opportunities to use that line.

[dugggy]

91. They could go where they went in 1984 n/t

[saracat]

2. ah! The honorable Mark Penn with the sleazy associations.Hillary's very own Rove.

We should believe him why? He is just continuing the inevitability meme.

[CK_John]

3. That is why they will have Mitt and a possible female VP as their ticket. n/t

[dugggy]

94. Best post of the day!!

[BootinUp]

5. Very interesting. n/t

[CK_John]

13. A possible Mitt/Melinda Gates combo to offset Hillary/K Sebelius. n/t

[Warpy]

6. Yeah, women are such purely emotional creatures

that we can't possibly look beyond a person's sex to her core belief system and the policies that flow from it.
:sarcasm:

Clinton needs to fire that idiot.

[wyldwolf]

12. fire him because he's pointing out a trend?

[ShortnFiery]

15. "a trend"

:rofl: No, I don't think so. The numerous right wing republican women I am acquainted with "spin out" at the mere mention of her name.

Sure, keep telling yer-selves this ... at least until Murdoch and Penn snags the Nomination for HRC? :crazy:

[wyldwolf]

27. uh, yeah. A trend. No one gives a rat's ass about the numerous Repug women you hang with

[ShortnFiery]

30. Awe, and here I thought you cared?

I'm crushed. :eyes:

[wyldwolf]

33. No, so go cry on the shoulders of your Republican women friends

[BootinUp]

37. heehee!

[ShortnFiery]

64. Oh, your being catty now ... very atypical of a man ... Mark Penn would not approve.

:rofl:

[wyldwolf]

69. and, as always, you're running away from your statements

[LanternWaste]

82. Sure, we all have anecdotal evidence...

And the Bush women I'm acquainted with are trending towards viewing Sen Clinton as a serious candidate who appears more and more to represent their interests rather than the Republicans.

Sure, we all have anecdotal evidence.

(And I have neither chosen, nor ruled out any of the Democratic candidates as of yet...)

[Warpy]

26. Fire him because he's a sexis pig

who is making assumptions based on stereotype.

He's saying they could run Phyllis Schlafly and women would vote for her because she's a woman.

[wyldwolf]

32. because he's correct or because you just don't want people saying it?

Clinton leads all Repubs in head to head match-ups and she is the leading candidate among women (Gallup/Pew/Rasmussen, etc.)

:shrug:

Sounds to me like you just hate good news about Hillary.

[saracat]

29. No because he is a slimy "union busting Blackwater defending pig. But Hillary likes him!

[wyldwolf]

36. ...but not because of his polling on women voters? That is what the thread is about.

[saracat]

68. My point is his credibility is questionable on women voters and anything else.He would say or do

anything to get her elected.He has no moral compass so he cannot be trusted to state anything resembling the truth.

[wyldwolf]

70. no it isn't

:shrug:

He's a pollster. I would suggest that if he lacks a "moral compass" it makes him a better pollster.

[saracat]

89. Lacking a moral compass makes one a better pollster? Wow!

I guess it helps to have no guilt when you segue the results because you have no moral compass or integrity.Wow, just wow that anyone would think this.

[wyldwolf]

90. yep. WOW!

[Schema Thing]

14. meh. I'm male and the symbolism of a female president appeals to me.

I can only imagine it would carry at least a little more weight to women. I'd say there is both emotion and logic behind the appeal to me. A female president would not necessarily be "progressive", simply by virtue of being female, but, having a female president would represent "progress" to me.

[ShortnFiery]

22. Yes, ask the Brits what they thought of their "iron lady" war horse

Maggie Thatcher?

IMO, electing HRC is not only NOT PROGRESS, it's an insult to my beloved gender. :thumbsdown:

[wyldwolf]

49. Which has what to do with Hillary Clinton?

[ShortnFiery]

52. Do the words "Kyl-Lieberman" and "Iran" mean anything to you? n/t

[wyldwolf]

58. not as it applies to Margaret Thatcher.

:shrug:

Did Thatcher ever vote on a non-binding resolution that, if it WERE binding, would freeze the financial assets of a group that was killing British soldiers?

[sufrommich]

54. "Iron Lady" is her mantra of the day..

it doesn't have to make sense,just repeated over and over and ....

[ShortnFiery]

55. It makes perfect sense, HRC has repeatedly said that she admires Brittan's "iron lady"

Margaret Thatcher. Not only will we have "Free Trade" gut out the Middle Class but we will have perpetual war to feed her buddies in The Military Industrial Complex.

What Britain needs is an iron lady. Margaret Thatcher

What America needs is NOT an iron lady. SnF :thumbsup: ;)

[wyldwolf]

56. so, how many times can you cite her doing that?

[ShortnFiery]

61. You're off your game today wyldwolf. Here ya go ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29977-2003Jul8.html

While flogging her book in London last week, Hillary Clinton unexpectedly revealed her admiration for a great British political figure. Curiously, her kind words were not for Tony Blair, who is often compared to her husband, but rather for one of his illustrious conservative predecessors. Clinton has, it seems, been a fan of Margaret Thatcher's for many years. Following the Iron Lady's career from afar, Clinton particularly admired Thatcher's ability to adapt herself to fit the job. "My goodness, she changed her hair, she changed a lot of things," Clinton told a British interviewer, who gleefully described the junior senator from New York as a woman with an "iron simper."

[wyldwolf]

67. So your definition of "repeatedly" is one reference? Given your habit of exageration...

[ShortnFiery]

78. It's sourced and it proves that your heroine was thinking of the coveted Presidency back in 2003.

But continue to attack me personally - because Mark Penn would want you to do that to A WOMAN who will not allow herself to be assimilated into the Clintonian DLC bandwagon to elect their iron lady.

BTW you should have caught Donna Brazille just now on CNN. She's not only, IMO, a traitor to women but also to African Americans. ALL her words were slobbering all over the thought of HRC snagging the Presidency. Hell, she was almost giddy. :crazy: Oh, and the supposed other side, the republican strategist fully agreed with her ... and The Republicans will push HRC, right on up until the moment she snags the Nomination. Then the long knives come out. :evilgrin:

Yes, it's called "The Great Deceit" because the average Wage Slave American ends up being SCREWED regardless of whether Penn is able to capture the Presidency for the DLC or if The M$M can smear her enough to assist in a republican gaining The Executive Branch.

What's truly sad is that many hopeful and good people here honestly believe that HRC won't be more of the same policies ... only welded by the soft hand of the velvet glove of Queen Hillary ... to be followed by King Jeb. :nuke:

[wyldwolf]

80. So there is a problem with thinking of running for President several years before you do?

:shrug:

And... where have I attacked you personally? :eyes:

[sufrommich]

31. I get emotional as a Democrat about our wins . If Clinton

gets the nomination,it would be silly to imagine that some women will not vote without taking into consideration our sense of the historical moment. I'm a woman,if she gets the nomination,I'll be taking my 10 year old niece with me into the voting booth.When she's 80 years old,I want her to be able to say she was there and remember it as a part of her personal history. So sue me.

[Warpy]

35. Would you do the same thing if, say, Ann Coulter was running

as the first female presidential nominee?

THINK.

See? That's the difference.

[BootinUp]

38. I can't imagine why you would even compare the two.

Its a factor not necessarily the deciding one.

[sufrommich]

42. Hillary Clinton is not Ann Coulter.

I'm a Democrat and I'm a woman. So this would be perfect scenario for me.I will be very happy indeed if the first female president of the U.S. is a Democrat,it should be. But I also recognise that if Clinton is the candidate in this election ,there will be an emotional factor involved which will have some who would not ordinarily vote for a Democrat,or at all for that matter,who will vote for her. It's not worth denying or ignoring.

[Zenlitened]

92. FWIW, I agree with you. I freely admit that the whole aspect...

... of electing a woman president is important to me. If she is someone I feel reflects my views and values to a great degree.

Heck, I could have voted for Elizabeth Dole years back -- but the thought never even crossed my mind! It's not enough that a candidate be a woman. But if she is a woman AND a Democrat... well, that matters. If she's someone I can agree with on most issues, then the historical and societal ramifications come into play, too.

My hunch is that many, many women across America are having this internal debate with themselves and may soon -- if they're not already -- be talking it over with friends. No one (hopefully) is going to vote for a candidate simply "because she's a woman." But if they arrive at the point where they are seriously weighing the pro's and cons of HRC as a presidential candidate, then it seems perfectly natural to me that the implications of electing America's first "Madame President" would be a part of the thinking process.

:hi:

[ShortnFiery]

40. I'd rather vote for Sarah Silverman than "an iron lady" - it shames my gender.

[Ian David]

7. Bookmark this thread. Watch for Republicans to suppress the female vote in 2008.

There will be lots of voter challenges to women who have changed from their maiden name to their married name, or divorced and changed back to their maiden name, etc.

[JohnnyLib2]

18. Good point.

Bookmarked.

[Clark2008]

25. The way to offset that is to vote in every election - even those

in which the only candidates are for dog catcher.

I was one of 8 percent of all registered voters in my town to actually vote in our recent city elections.

I know I'm a valid voter. :)

[ShortnFiery]

34. That is absurd. My mother was active in republican wives clubs.

Hey! I changed my name for the sake of our family. And no one is more pinko liberal than me.

Irrelevant, but somewhat comical.

Moderate or Conservative, Republican Women many times drink more koolaid than the men.

But thanks for playing. I think it's time to reset and try another obnoxious spin? :crazy:

[wyldwolf]

47. so your mother was one of the Republican women you hung with?

[ShortnFiery]

53. You're so damn cute wyldwolf ... you never surrender but that hole's getting real deep. n/t

[wyldwolf]

60. what hole is that?

[sufrommich]

8. I believe he's right. nt

[cobalt1999]

10. I know some examples of those GOP women.

...and their husbands would blow a gasket if they knew how they were planning to vote.

[riqster]

11. Women who vote Reep are fools

...as are Reep blacks, hispanics, gays...anyone who isn't rich, white, and over 50 is an idiot if they vote Reep.

Kinda like being a Jewish Nazi.

[ShortnFiery]

20. And many people forget the 1st rule of republican politics, moderate or right?

They do NOT EVER forgive. The moderates may eat crow and compromise but they do NOT forgive ... once those smears are set in motion they are perpetuated until the end of time. And guess which political POWER PLAYERS control the M$M? That's why McCain nor HRC don't stand a prayer of becoming the next President.

[wyldwolf]

39. Did your Repug women friends tell you that?

[ShortnFiery]

43. I have republican acquaintances as I live in a community of mostly military, government or retired ....

military members. Officer types so it's weighted republican.

Yes, it one of the "very few" social issues we have in common: we oppose HRC's bid for the WH (to me she's fine in the Senate if NY State wants to claim her :shrug: - but our rationale? We oppose HRC for VERY DIFFERENT reasons. :shrug:

[wyldwolf]

44. ...and they told you about the "First Rule?"

[ShortnFiery]

50. Hey, I know you are chiding me, but because I'm the one black sheep of my family

(liberal when all others are republican) I kind of have "a feel" for what this community thinks.

It ain't pretty.

Bottom line message: don't be counting on hordes of moderate republican women voting for your heroine. :shrug:

[wyldwolf]

59. so your "feel" for the Republican women's community gave you that "1st Rule" knowledge?

[ShortnFiery]

62. Now you're just being snotty. Game over. :( n/t

[wyldwolf]

71. for you it is. You won't even say where you got that silly "1st Rule" from

[JohnnyLib2]

16. Is this good news for Democrats?

It will be hard to tell from DU reactions, methinks.

:shrug:

[Rhythm and Blue]

17. If that's correct, does it imply a defection of Democratic males?

Just curious.

[SaveElmer]

19. How many here cannot understand how any gay person can be Republican?...nt

[BootinUp]

41. But, thats against the laws of the universe!

:sarcasm:

[Semper_FiFi]

83. I find it inconceivable! n/t

[zulchzulu]

21. It's true. 24 GOP women threaten to vote for her

:rofl:

Penn should upgrade his pot connection.

[ShortnFiery]

28. Yes, I think they're rioting out in the Cornfields of Nebraska.

:spray: ;)

[dugggy]

45. Penn is wrong....it will be more like 40 to 50%

[cobalt1999]

46. ...and they'll never tell their husbands either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. I'm Skeptical

I'd have to see some more data...

I suspect most professional women who would be sympathetic to a Hillary Clinton candidacy are already in the Democratic party or independent...

I'm also skeptical about turning any southern state blue at the national level except Arkasnas, Virginia, or Florida...After all we are 0-26 or 1-25 in the past two elections, both of which had southerners on the ticket...

[wyldwolf]

63. there's also young Republican women who were non-political but married a GOPer

I know quite a few of those. Pro-choice, pro-healthcare (at least for children.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. Maybe

Most of the Republican women I have the misfortune of knowing are your garden variety Republicans and I don't see them voting for Clinton...As you know, I'm weary of anecdotes so I have to see some data...I just think if they were Clinton voters they would be Dems already... At the end of the day most Dems will vote for their guy or gal and most Reps will vote for their guy or gal... The action is with the Indys, and since there are more Ds than Rs we're in better shape...

[wyldwolf]

73. yeah, I don't trust anedotes, either.

But the polling we've seen does suggest what Penn is stating. Clinton's numbers with women in the GE are a bit overwhelming.

[sufrommich]

75. I wouldn't be surprised

if it brought more women to the polls though. Some who rarely if ever vote. I also think there will be republican women cross - overs. If she gets the nomination,it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

[sampsonblk]

74. Sounds about right to me

As the time gets closer, as she campaigns more and gets seen more, her negatives keep dropping.

With the hate level diminished, it seems obvious to me that a lot of GOP women will go for Hillary. If she wins, the world will have changed instantly. (Same with Obama)

[sufrommich]

76. I agree.

Both would be very positive historic firsts.

[riqster]

77. Damn skippy

About time America grew up and acted in accordance with the values it purports to hold dear.

[rufus dog]

79. It would be interesting to see the data

Gut feel is that he is pulling the number out of his ass. But, I could see HRC peeling away some moderate republican votes. It is the perfect storm for her, a completely incompetent President along with her name recognition and ties to the administration that compares so favorably to shrubs. 25%, I find hard to believe 10 to 15% maybe. If she holds the Dems that would be a pickup of enough states to get her way over the top.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. If She Gets The Same % Of Dem Votes As Her Opponent Gets R Votes And Splits The Indies She'll Win

By Anywhere From Five To Ten Percent...

[Scout]

86. pro-choice repubs will vote dem.... n/t

[calteacherguy]

88. Landslide. nt

[WCGreen]

93. Something I posted a while back....

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/WCGreen/48

I didn't have to spend a lot of money to come to this conclusion...

I just used common sense and a keen eye for political reality...

[illinoisprogressive]

95. It turns out to be less than 7% on a good day.