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Edited on Wed Oct-17-07 05:55 PM by Bucky
The draft Gore movement may to play a key role in the 2008 nomination process, but only because it's an utter waste of time and good votes. It's obvious now that President-elect-for-life Al Gore is not going to run for president next year. But in several states, according to what I read on DU, it is possible for people to write in Gore's name for the nomination. This could be very important for this coming nomination battle, because voting for Al Gore has the effect of watering down the anti-Clinton vote.
People support Gore in large part because they are not thrilled with the current crop of candidates. Those who are satisfied with the current crop are, obviously, not supporting Gore, since Gore isn't encouraging the draft movement, it seems clear that Gore support is essentially made up of people who are disinclined to support Clinton for the nomination. This is meant as no slight against Mrs Clinton. It is merely the nature of a draft movement to be more passionate against the frontrunner than against the other candidates that it also finds inadequate.
So it's a safe bet that the preponderance of those still supporting Gore at this stage are people who won't back Clinton in Gore's stead. People who consider Clinton the best choice among the non-Gore candidates are already supporting her. So the votes diverted into the "Gore write-in" column are in general coming out of the totals that the non-Clinton candidates would otherwise have. Since the "anti-Clinton votes" are already split among several candidates (while the pro-Clinton votes are entirely concentrated in favor of Clinton, duh). Adding a popular guy like Gore to the candidate menu in particular reduces the final totals of the people running against Clinton.
A draft movement under these circumstances is bound to fizzle out before the votes start getting cast. The majority of the people who today hold onto the vain hope for Gore entering will slowly come to realize that Gore is not a liar and thus really isn't running. Those who still feel tempted to cast a write in vote for our beloved 10-minute-smoochmeister should understand that by not voting for an actual alternative to Clinton, they are helping to broaden the victory gap between Senator Clinton and her opponents. True, they aren't adding votes to Clinton's total, but there is a perceptional difference between a front runner winning a state by 10 percentage points and winning it by five percentage points. It could be the difference between a horserace and an inevitability.
I speak with some hypocricy on this issue. I'm supporting a candidate who probably won't break 5% in the Iowa or New Hampshire contests before he drops out. But my candidate at least enjoys the distinction of actually being a candidate. Mr Gore expressly says he isn't. By continuing to push for this elusive ideal candidate instead of accepting the pragmatic nature of voting and going with a Plan B candidate, Gore's hold-out fans may help create the impression that there's not a real contest going on this year. But then again, society is filled to the brim with people who wait for perfection only to gain disillusion with what's possible.
As fun as it would be to see how a presidential draft campaign works in the 21st century, the happy tragedy here is that Democrats have three very strong, very capable people dominating the media and the polls during this election cycle. And though I'm not planning on voting for any one of them (just yet), the fact that all three of the top tier candidates are so capable effectively dooms any draft campaign to failure. You can't sell water wings to dolphins, you can't sell parachutes to the Justice League, and you can't sell an emergency replacement candidate to a party with a surplus of strong leaders. Democrats simply have enough good choices that we don't have to go scouring popular TV shows for a new package.
PS,
If you're not from Iowa or New Hampshire, you have no business reading any of this. My article is meant only for people constitutionally permitted to choose their president. If you are not from one of those states, the jury is directed to disregard the preceding tirade.
PSS,
In a well armed society, Plaid Adder would already be my president.
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