Chris Bowers of MyDD: Hillary is Rising in the General Election, Too

[rinsd]

by: Chris Bowers
Sun Oct 14, 2007 at 15:09:12 PM EDT

Hillary Clinton’s increasing Democratic primary advantage in states like New Hampshire and Iowa can also be seen in her remarkable turnaround in general election matchups. Looking only at how Obama and Clinton, the two Democratic candidates who have opted out of public financing, fare against Rudy Giuliani (Clinton data here, Obama data here), check out how Clinton moves from performing significantly worse, to performing the same, to performing better over the past eight months:

Clinton and Obama vs. Giuliani, Non-Rasmussen polls
Note: ”Advantage” shows the relative advantage of Clinton or Obama in matchups against Giuliani

Poll Date Clinton Obama CAdvantage
NPR Oct 07 47-44 44-44 Clinton +3
FOX Sep 26 46-39 41-40 Clinton +6
CNN Sep 09 50-46 45-49 Clinton +8
Q-poll Aug 13 46-43 42-42 Clinton +3
NBC / WSJ Jul 30 47-41 45-40 Clinton +1
Fox Jul 18 46-41 45-41 Clinton +1
Battleground Jul 18 44-50 53-43 Obama +15
Gallup Jul 15 46-49 45-49 Clinton +1
Zogby Jul 14 46-41 46-42 Clinton +1
CNN Jun 24 49-48 46-48 Clinton +3
Cook Jun 23 45-44 42-41 Even
Newsweek Jun 21 51-44 49-44 Clinton +2
Cook Jun 17 42-42 41-41 Even
Gallup Jun 14 50-46 50-45 Obama +1
Q-poll Jun 11 45-44 42-42 Clinton +1
LA Times Jun 10 39-49 46-41 Obama +15
Zogby May 20 43-48 48-42 Obama +11
Hotline May 20 43-45 43-41 Obama +4
Newsweek May 03 49-46 50-43 Obama +4
Marist May 01 48-43 41-43 Clinton +7
Q-poll May 01 40-49 41-44 Obama +6
Hotline Apr 30 43-47 48-39 Obama +13
LA Times Apr 09 42-48 46-42 Obama +10
Time Apr 09 43-48 45-45 Obama +5
Fox Mar 28 44-45 43-43 Obama +1
Time Mar 26 41-50 44-45 Obama +8

Note: Only polls that collected data on Clinton vs. Giuliani and Obama vs. Giuliani in the same survey are included, as those are the only apples to apples comparisons possible.


In nine of the ten oldest polls in this chart, from March 26th through June 10th, Obama held a general election advantage over Clinton. At that time, the Marist poll showing Clinton with an advantage was clearly an outlier. However, over the next fifteen polls, from June 11th through today, Clinton held the advantage in twelve polls, two were tied, and the GW Battleground poll weighed in with a clear outlier. (As they say, one out of every twenty polls is way off, and so the presence of two outliers in this chart is not anomalous.)

At a quick glance, I am seeing three periods in this chart, the first showing Obama with about a six-point edge (late March through early June), the second showing a virtual tie (mid-June through early August), and the third period showing Clinton with a modest advantage of about four points (mid-August through today). Overall, Clinton has improved her performance against Giuliani relative to Obama by about ten points over the last seven months. It is entirely possible that will reverse itself at some point, since the five months of general election polling before this chart, Clinton actually started with the advantage in November 2006, but Obama caught up and passed her over the next five months. Then again, it is possible that Obama’s rise from comparative obscurity meant that his favorable ratings hit an all-time peak around March and April of 2006 during his “rockstar” media coverage phase, and now they have inevitably fallen a bit. That, combined with slowing lowering opinions of Giuliani and slowly improving opinions of Clinton, could also produce the trends we see here.

More stuff at the link including numbers vs Romney & Thompson

http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1888

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Didn't You Get The Meme Yet

She can't win!

[movonne]

2. God help us....our new war president...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. You Can Always Vote For Rudy

eom

[William769]

3. Great! Thanks for posting.