Kerry Only Dem Leading Bush in California According to New Poll

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)

Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).

The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040218005946&newsLang=en

[SerpentX]

1. May or may not be true

The Hoover Institute is a nasty little rathole.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. You think they falsified their findings?

[MurikanDemocrat]

5. Like maybe the true results would show Bush further behind

[SerpentX]

7. Not falsified, just possibly biased.

I don't take anything from Frank Luntz without a few lbs of salt either. Kerry's my candidate, but to say that Edwards couldn't beat Bush here is disingenuous.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Well, no one said

"Edwards couldn't beat Bush here" did they? Not me, and not the poll. So who exactly are you accusing of being "disingenuous"?

[SerpentX]

14. Not you, the propellerheads over at Hoover.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Where did they say that?

[SerpentX]

16. Let me rephrase

- Edwards hasn't campaigned here.
- Edwards can beat Bush anywhere in this state that Kerry can.
- Edwards can beat Bush in places in this state where Kerry can't.
- A poll from a hard-right think tank before Edwards has had the opportunity to really introduce himself isn't particularly persuasive.
- I'm for Kerry, not against Edwards.

Sabe?

[TheDonkey]

3. why would shrub being doing so well in california??

i don't buy it. Even Kucinich should be beating that assmunch.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. It's a mighty small sample, for one thing.

[Desertrose]

6. you mean anyone here still believes polls?

good grief

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. What do you mean by 'believe'?

[Anwen]

9. I can't buy that...

I've lived in sunny CA all my life...I am pretty positive ANY Democrat would squash Bush easily in this state.

[2004Donkeys]

10. California might be drifting Republican

With Gray Davis and all.

[Anwen]

13. It would seem that way, but I doubt it.

I think the whole Gray Davis/Ah-nold thing was an anomaly. Jeez I hope so anyway! :(

[DjTj]

12. This is pre-Wisconsin...

...What percentage of Californians knew who Edwards was?