Zogby: Bush ahead in red states, Kerry barely ahead in blue states

[ringmastery]

The polls are everywhere. This certainly doesn't jive with CNN Gallup.

http://www.zogby.com/news/021804.html

Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States
Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gays Marriage

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O’Leary Report and Southern Methodist University’s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O’Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush’s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president’s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president’s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President’s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. So even if those 1,209 came from just 10 'strategic' states

that's only 120 voters from each. How the hell can you do a poll like this?

[TruthIsAll]

17. This Blue-Red state is BS: Zogby contradicts his own polls - here's

In the latest Zogby polls, a Dem beats Bush 45-41; and it's 48-41 that Bush does not deserve to be reelected.

How does this jibe with the Blue/Red numbers? Not one bit!

Bush is toast!

Zogby America Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.


"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated. Trend includes slight variations in wording.

George W. Bush Democrat Other(vol.) NotSure
% % % %
1/15-18/04 41 45 2 12
12/15-17/03 47 42 2 9
12/4-6/03 43 41 3 13
11/3-5/03 41 41 2 16
10/15-18/03 43 45 1 12
9/22-24/03 41 45 3 12
9/3-5/03 39 47 3 11
8/16-19/03 43 42 2 13
7/16-17/03 47 44 1 8
6/6-10/03 44 37 3 16
3/03 48 38 2 13
.

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?" Trend includes slight variations in wording.

.

Deserves Reelection Someone New Not Sure
% % %
1/15-18/04 41 48 10
12/15-17/03 45 47 8
12/4-6/03 44 46 10
11/3-5/03 43 49 8
10/15-18/03 42 50 8
9/22-24/03 43 49 8
9/3-5/03 40 52 8
8/16-19/03 45 48 8
7/16-17/03 46 47 6
6/6-10/03 49 38 13
1/24-26/03 49 41 10
1/4-6/03 51 36 13
10/02 49 35 16
7/02 47 32 21
6/02 51 28 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[elperromagico]

19. Unfortunately, we can't run "Unnamed Democrat" against Bush.

We can't run "Someone New" against Bush either. We have to put a person in there.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. you are the numbers maven here TIA

I am sure you are right. :thumbsup:

[Casablanca]

23. This is also month-old data ...

A month separated Howard Dean from dangerous insurgent to has-been. Don't think it can't happen, or hasn't happened, to Kerry.

Zogby was the most accurate in the Lewinsky affair, and stood against the media poll outlets in its reporting. I consider their credibility among pollsters to be above par.

[Nederland]

28. But Bush Isn't Running

...at least, that's what I remember you saying.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

2. FWIW

when I was a Zogby participant, the sample had Republicans overrepresented. (You could see the cumulative results after you had filled out the questionnairel.) That still may be true.

[LoneStarLiberal]

3. It's Closer But Still Uphill Considering MoE

Hmmm...quite interesting.

It's a lot closer if you consider MoE is 4.3.

Still, we need to put in some work in the Midwest and Florida.

[xray s]

4. This is bull

The poll methodology is bogus. Red state vs blue state in aggregate is meaningless. You have to break it down state by state.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. There are other problems as well with this poll and with polls

in general. For example, how did Zogby identify "likely voters?" Did he take into account the possibility that the polling places will be overrun with pissed people who didn't vote in 2000?

[Merusault]

7. You're right............

Zogby is taking red swing states (i.e. florida, missouri, ohio, nevada, N.H.) and lumping them in with solid red states (i.e. the south and mountain west), which is obviously takes the stats out of the proper perspective.

[Jawja]

15. Florida

is a red "stolen" state.

:-)

[DemMother]

5. O'Leary Report--something fishy

This is bull. It seems to be part of a survey done for this guy (I found a description of him on World Net):

"Bradley S. O'Leary


Bradley S. O’Leary has been involved in politics for more than twenty-five years, and his newsletter, the O’Leary Report, is one of the most influential publications in American politics. More than sixty senators and congressmen have been his clients, including Senators Bob Dole and Howard Baker. His NBC radio show ran for seven years, and he has also been a contributing columnist for USA Today Weekend magazine. O’Leary is currently president of Associated Television News in Los Angeles."


Do a search and check out Associated Television News. I didn't have time to do anything comprehensive--still googling.

And I've completely forgotten what World Net is? Right wing?

[lancdem]

8. World Net Daily?

RW news source. BTW, Zogby does tons of polls for clients with an agenda, with results that almost always favor that group's POV. I take his Reuters polls most seriously because Reuters is nonpartisan.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi DemMother!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[SaddenedDem]

9. Watching Kerry supporters chew their arms off

Calling Zogby all kinds of name when a few weeks ago, they were swearing by him!!!!!

Now he's all kinds of wrong when his poll goes against Kerry. But during Iowa he was on a pedestal so high I'm surprized he didn't get a nose bleed.

[DemMother]

11. read the above

When Zogby is working for a biased client you have to take that into account when you examine the results. This seems to be part of an overall "values" poll that is being done for O'Leary who clearly has right wing leanings. I'm neither for nor against Kerry. In fact I rarely post on any thread other than ABB or general interest.

[xray s]

12. Zogby will sell you anything you want to hear

I think he can come up with pretty accurate polls. On the other hand, if you ask him to do a bogus poll lumping all red states in one pile and all blue states in another, he is more than happy to take your money.

[cryofan]

10. This is why an Edwards-Kerry ticket beats a Kerry-Edwards ticket

better to get edwards at the top of the ticket.

[bornskeptic]

13. Why? There's no data here on Edwards.

In fact, I believe every national poll since the Iowa caucuses in which Bush/Kerry and Bush/Edwards matchups were included, Kerry has done better than Edwards. If you know of an exception, I'd sincerely like to hear about it, since I hate being inaccurate.

Actually, even if this is meaningful, averaging blue states and red states would leave Kerry within 4 or 5 points of Bush, which would normally be considered excellent for a challenger running against an incumbent this early in an election year.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.asp?ci=10531

[anti-NAFTA]

18. Because free trade is a more important issue

in the South and the battleground states than Kerry's military service. Sorry. ;(

[Champion Jack]

14. What were Zogbys predictions on the vote last night?

Didn't he predict a landslide for Kerry with Edwards a distanst 2nd?

[fujiyama]

20. It was even more...

off than that. He had Kerry ahead by a huge margin, with Dean in second (23%) and Edwards in third (20%).

I personally have never taken his polls seriously. They haven't been very accurate in this primary season.

[robbedvoter]

16. Zogby preparing Edwards "electability" PR

Wait for polls before the primaries: Edwards beats Bush. kerry who?

[DoctorBombay]

21. Entirely too small a sample to mean anything.

1209 is a decent sample for popular vote, but it's too small to be broken down into blue state/red state categories.

And, if only 10 states were used, the blues could have been close states like New Mexico and Iowa and the reds could have been states like Idaho and Utah, places we have no shot in.

I love how the map on the page on the link is tilted to the red states appear much bigger and the blues look even smaller. Almost like that crap on Limbaugh's site that had the 2000 results by county.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

25. Good analysis.

[John_H]

24. Another Zogby corporate sponsored push poll. Look at the ad

copy for the reports.

http://www.zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=210

[Atlant]

27. I'm shocked, shocked I say.

> Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue
> states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red
> states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins
> handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

I'm shocked, shocked I say. Anyone, *ANYONE* who thinks *ANY* of our
candidates is going to win in the Bush strongholds (where the issues
are God, Guns, and Gays 24x7) is going to be very sadly disappointed
on Wednesday morning, November 3rd.

And with a nice, safe middle-of-the-roader like Kerry, with no real
fire in his belly and no real hard-and-fast positions about anything,
those blue states will be heavily contended-for as well.

Atlant