Clinton -53% Obama 20% Edwards 13%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

I understand the theory that if Obama manages to win Iowa he will have so much momentum that he can overcome Clinton's lead in the national polls which would presumably translate into victories for him in primary states down the line... Intuitively that has some appeal but intuitively it's also hard to believe that so many folks will not vote for Clinton just because she lost Iowa...

If I remember correctly Bush Pere won some early primaries in 1980 and thought that would catapult him into the nomination...He called it the "Big Mo"... That strategy failed...

We shall see...

[durrrty libby]

1. Impressive

:woohoo: :applause: :woohoo:

[Tamburlaine]

2. Iowa 1980

Yes, Bush Snr did win in Iowa in 1980 but I don't think it was that big a shock. He had campaigned heavily, and focused his attentions there, while Reagan seemed to have the wider campaign outlook. As it was, Bush only edged out Reagan by 2 points. Hardly the 'Big Mo' that Daddy Bush claimed.

Anyway, anybody who comes up with terms like 'The Big Mo' deserves to lose a nomination. Heavily.

Iowa DID change the whole picture for John Kerry in 2004 but I always thought he had a far deeper pool of support that was waiting to be tapped (if he proved himself viable) than the media reported at the time.

I think the whole inevitability idea would, perhaps temporarily, be punctured (a little like McCain trouncing Bush in New Hampshire in 2000) if Senator Clinton faltered in Iowa. Her opponents are just looking for an opening, any opening, but she is showing precious little evidence of providing them with one at the moment.

'Big Mo' indeed....mutter....mutter....grumble....grumble.....

[BadgerLaw2010]

3. Kerry's gain is more because of Dean's massive self-inflicted implosion

Getting torched in Iowa as "unelectable" was bad enough, but apparently confirming that by going out on stage hyperactive and possibly a bit loaded compounded the issue severely.

So people get the following message from Iowa:

-- It's good to vote for Kerry. Iowa thought he was the most electable.
-- Dean is batshit crazy, don't vote for him.

-

Put it this way: There is no way on Earth that Hillary will make anything close to a Dean-type mistake. Her campaign is shockingly professional and disciplined. They know exactly how to protect a lead, and they are doing it.

[wellst0nev0ter]

4. Those Who Repeat Reich-Wing Media Myths Should Be Barred

from voicing political opinions.

The Truth Behind The "Dean Scream"

[Tamburlaine]

6. If I may diverge from the point

just a minute. What a peculiar way you have of writing your user name. Was there another Wellstone Voter on DU, or are you simply a blackmailer by profession?

I too agree that Governor Dean was rather hard done by. When Dean fell, they turned on Kerry, it was ever thus, unfortunately.

[wellst0nev0ter]

8. Yes, My Original Name Was "wellstonevoter"

but the password didn't work after I registered, so I just did another user name :dunce:

[BadgerLaw2010]

7. It doesn't matter what he actually did. It matters what people perceived through media.

If you think "truth" matters, you're the one who should be barred from voicing political opinions. How many people can see Dean in person there? How many see him on TV? How many see him on repeats on the TV?

The solution is to not do something like what Dean did in the first place, precisely because of the risk of it being treated the way it did. Risk-reward is tremendously out of whack. So you don't do it.

Gaffes don't have to be as bad as they look - George Allen's racism was at least as bad as it looked - to be lethal. So don't do anything that remotely looks like a gaffe.

[wellst0nev0ter]

10. Shorter BadgerLaw: "Only What's Shown On The Telescreens Matters" (eom)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Peception Trumps Reality

Say you were on trial for murder and the jury said you did it though you were factually innocent...Would that make you less dead when the state gives you the poison cocktail?

[wellst0nev0ter]

29. Does That Make It Right And Should We Perpetuate It?

God, I don't understand why we should easily capitulate to the artifices built up by the Washington press whore media jackholes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. The Scream Became Emblematic Of His Campqaign

It was up to Mr. Dean to demontrate the "scream" didn't define him...

How he could have done that is beyond my ken...

[ShortnFiery]

25. Dean's fall was MEDIA-inflicted. We have NO free press. USA = fully morphed Corporate Press. nt

[wellst0nev0ter]

30. Yeppers.

I can't believe so-called "progressives" still fall for that tired media myth even to this day.

[Tellurian]

5. Bravo for Senator Clinton...

Breaking over 50% in the polls at this stage of the game is truly brilliant. Hillary's numbers reflect the due diligence of her campaign team in doing their homework, laying out a strategy, achieving milestones and Hillary closely adhering to an unbelievable schedule orchestrated in double time.

[William769]

9. brilliant is a understatement..

[Tellurian]

14. most brilliant!

The thing is, we should never take anything for granted. We have to keep working as if we're 20 pts behind and fighting the good fight until the elections are over.

[SaveElmer]

11. Unbelievable...

At this point one could easily draw the conclusion that the master politician in the Clinton family isn't Bill...it's Hillary!!!

[CTyankee]

12. This is a Dem only poll since it asks questions about voting in the Dem primaries.

Don't most states only allow you to vote in your own party's primary? I know Wisconsin allows "cross-over" voting, but do NH and IA?

While this kind of poll has value, it doesn't tell us much about how Clinton will fare in the GE, altho I have seen one poll that suggests she will do well. So we have to wait and see...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The Poll Is Of Adults Who Say They Will Vote Democrats

eom

[CTyankee]

24. Yes, but in many states it is irrelevant if they can't vote in the primary.

The question was how they would vote in the primary. I have neighbors who told me they were going to vote for Ned Lamont in the primary last year. Well, I looked them up down at Ned's hq in New Haven. They were not registered Democrats and in CT you can only vote in the primary of the party where you are officially registered. In the GE of course it is a different story.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. All I Am Inferring From This Poll And The Other Polls Is She's Doing Really Well

Can she stumble?

I guess...

[CTyankee]

34. Yes, she is doing well. I think she learned some hard lessons over the years.

Of all of our candidates, she is the best one to face down the RW Slime Machine. She's faced it down before...

[sundancekid]

32. not hardly ... even the lean dem tiny sample has a FAR SMALLER

percentage representation in the poll than the overall proportion who is NEITHER AFFILIATED, NOR LEANS TO EITHER PARTY ... hello?????
Read all about how at some point, they then went and found some more "random" 200+ Afro Americans to add to the sample ... puhlease!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100107.html

We should all get into the habit of ACTUALLY VERIFYING the media's self-serving conclusions - to which they will point later and say: see? that's what the polls say ... now, whose rovian tactics does that remind me of???? hmmmmm ... never mind.

This media hype drives serious statisticians totally nuts. What a bunch of hooey - when it comes to the WaPo "parsing" attempt = well at least it's under the right heading: The Fix.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. There's A Plethora Of Polls

and they all show Hillary with leads of around twenty percent or more...

It's interesting that if every single one of them is spurious, they are all spurious in a fashion that's favorable to Ms. Clinton...

[Colobo]

15. She already won! Yiiiipeeee!!!

:sarcasm:

See you at the polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Reading Comprehension Must Not Be Your Forte

I said, based on the polls today, it's hard to envision a scenario where Ms. Cinton will lose the nomination...I never said, implicitly or explicitly it's impossible...

If you are confident your candidate will win the nomination I suggest you go here:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/nomination08.html

and put your money where your mouth, errr keyboard is...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. If I Can Ever Figure It Out I'm Going To Put A Couple Hundred On Clinton In The Primaries And In The

General.

[Ethelk2044]

27. Same thing was said about 2004. The polls are not capturing all the voters

A lot of voters only have Cell or VOIP. Those phone numbers are not captured in the polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I Don't Think Anybody Thought Dean Was Inevitable But Dean And Zogby

I hope we aren't going to get in some arcane discussion of the efficacy of polls...For all their flaws the final polls match up very well with the final election results...

[NewHampster]

16. After all - Bill Lost New Hampshire

First to win the presidency after losing the NH primary. It has been done.

Us locals just loved Paul Tsongas.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Clinton Lost IA To The Favorite Son (Harkin) And NH To The Boy Next Door (Tsongas)

eom

[William769]

21. Damn those pesky little facts.

[NewHampster]

22. I love the picture

Which event was that? Obviously one I missed.

[William769]

23. The last debate.

Needless to say it has some here seeing red. Just another added bonus.

[Tellurian]

35. K&R

:dem: