What's Edwards' strategy re: states to win?

[Lex]

Last night the pundits (yuck) were saying Edwards has the Big Mo now, but does anyone know what states he HAS to win in order to beat Kerry's delegate count? Some were saying California is a MUST win for Edwards.

And what happens to Dean's delegates and superdelegates that have pledged for him?

Will this possibly be a showdown at the Convention?

[cspiguy]

1. Florida, Texas, California, Ohio, to name a few

all of those could happen. NY is out of the question - I believe the personal Leer-Jet crowd is pretty well booked for The Presumptive.

[THUNDER HANDS]

2. he won't win California or New York

Which pretty much puts him a deeeeeeeeeeeeeeep hole that it'll be next to impossible to dig himself out of. Those are hundreds of delegates right there.

[David Dunham]

4. Kerry Gets Hugely Important AFL-CIO Endorsement on Thursday

Every candidate with the AFL-CIO endorsement has won the nomination. ALWAYS!!

[SangamonTaylor]

5. ***broken record alert***

[dawn]

10. I think he could certainly take California, or at least come close..

If he talks enough about his thoughts against outsourcing of tech jobs and his plans to battle this.

I talk a lot about this when talking to voters in this state. If only I lived in the Silicon Valley...

Plenty of tech workers here in Southern California alone have lost their jobs to cheap labor overseas.

[AP]

3. It's not about putting states in win column. It's about win %s.

There will probably come a point where the person in the lead will start winning 70%, 80% and then 90% or 95% of delegates.

Kerry hasn't been able to do that yet, and Edwards could possibly reach those ceilings.

[King of New Orleans]

9. He's got to win a couple

After March 2nd almost 2/3rds of the states will have voted. If he doesn't win somewhere (and probably somewhere other than GA) then he has no chance on March 9th.

[AP]

11. Of course. I'm saying it's about MORE than just winning states. It's about

delegates.

Kerry hasn't yet won by a landslide, and Edwards could possibly.

[Lex]

14. Okay AP so it's better to look at

the total number of delegates garnered?

The media makes so much of who's in the "win" column for each state.
Obviously that isn't the whole game though, because Clark dropped out and he and Edwards had the same number of states won.

[AP]

16. Right. Edwards had 2.5 times the delegates Clark had. It's all about

delegates.

[King of New Orleans]

6. It's really tough

California and New York are huge states, and Edwards name recognition probably still isn't all that great. Ohio,MD,GA,Mass,RI, and a few others are that day too. Edwards closed the gap because he a good campaigner and was able to spend all his time in Wisconsin. He does have an opening, but whether enough people will see him or will reconsider him in that short time span I don't know.

[Lex]

15. I guess Edwards could do really well

in California by doing lots of media appearances while there.

Obviously he was there last week (in LA anyway) because didn't he appear on Leno's show?

Lots of Hollywood movers-and-shakers were for Dean. Wonder who they'll throw their support to? Or if that matters much.

[GRClarkesq]

7. Georgia, Ohio, New York must be his next targets

Money to spend and organization will matter more now as Edwards will not be able to use his style of campaigning as effectively.

[Zynx]

8. He should also make an effort in Maryland.

[SangamonTaylor]

12. The debate is in California and could have a huge impact

[mohc]

13. Realistic Super Tuesday Strategy

First, I think Edwards needs to win the open primary in Idaho next week. Its not a lot of delegates, but he needs to show hes gaining, not just holding steady. It would also be nice to pick up Utah or Hawaii, but not so much I would concentrate a lot of attention there. 4 of the 10 contests on ST are open: GA, OH, MN, and VT. Edwards needs Dean to either win VT for himself or throw his support to Edwards so that he could possibly take it. The other 3 open contests are probably going to be where Edwards spends most of his time, and his calendar suggests that is the case. MA, RI, and CT are probably lost causes, which leaves NY, MD, and CA. According to his calendar, Edwards seems to be giving up on CA and will campaign in both NY and MD. If he picks up both, along with the 4 open contests, I think it makes Edwards the front runner. If he picks up neither, or only barely wins MD, things remain pretty much unchanged. Winning NY, however unlikely it may seem now, is probably what decides if Edwards can take this the distance.

[AP]

17. He can narrowly win a bunch of super tuesday states, but he'd have to

have landslides from that point on.

[Lex]

18. Wow mohc, thanks for that ---

I appreciate that run-down on the scenarios.

[amandabeech]

23. Does anyone know how far in advance independents

must change their registration to Dem in order to vote in their March 2 primaries? I'd be particularly interested in NY and CA.


Amanda

[amandabeech]

29. Answered my own question

as I should have to begin with.

California--Independents may vote for primary candidates, but not county central committees. No apparent method for Republican crossover. Lots of other state and local ballot action on March 2.

New York--closed. No provision for changing registration--determined by reg. at last election. New reg. for primary closed Feb. 6.


Amanda

[Perky]

19. Georgia and Ohio

Working class appeal just like Wisconsin
Southern Charm in GA.

I think he has a resonable shot at both.

Kerry still wins the lionshare

But Edwards ger to ride to the convention.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Big Mo?!? You'd think Edwards had won!

good grief and a handbasket.

[Lex]

21. Momentum is important right now.

Face it, the media is playing this like Kerry lost a huge lead at the last minute.

Kerry won the state, but the story today is Edwards.

[SangamonTaylor]

22. did Clinton win NH in '92? No I think I remember him placing 2nd

Big Mo.

[ShaneGR]

24. By my calculations, Ohio, California, Florida, Idaho, and Texas

Those would put him in position to win it.

[genius]

25. If he reverses himself on Yucca Mountain, he could win California

Labor is a big issue here. But so is the environment.

[Perky]

27. Yucca Mountain...Yuck Yuck

Its all about beating bush.... At best.....Yucca gets him maybe 2,000 votes.

[jpgpenn]

26. perhaps he is waiting for another 10% repuke turn out...

To pump up his numbers like in Wis.

[democratreformed]

28. Here's what the campaign is saying:

"Aides say his campaign will focus on Ohio, New York, Georgia and California and will run ads in targeted media markets."

Link: http://www.start.earthlink.net/newsarticle?cat=9&aid=D80PRQEO0_story

[Lex]

31. Okay thanks for that link.

It's a good one.

[On the Road]

30. Any Chance Dean's 200 Delegates Could Come in Handy?

Fascinating prospects if they turn out to make the difference.