Edwards crossover appeal vs. Clark crossover appeal

[ShaneGR]

Guess what? This isn't a flame on Clark! Many of Clark's supporters talked endlessly of Clark's appeal to moderate independents and Republicans. They said it was very important to have a candidate who had this appeal. I tended to agree while seeing the same thing in my candidate of choice

But, now that Edwards has demonstrated that crossover appeal it's suddenly a terrible thing. I must say, seems like a back-track to me.

[jpgpenn]

1. you are trying to compare an apple to an orange!

Crossover appeal and crossing party lines for the sole purpose of skewing a vote total are two totally different things!

[spooky3]

2. You have absolutely NO evidence as to why independents and

republicans voted as they did yesterday. You cannot support the conclusion that they crossed over for the "sole purpose of skewing a vote." There are alternative interpretations that are just as, or more, plausible.

It appears that you are simply trying to diminish the fact that Edwards did better yesterday than you hoped, and that Edwards has some real evidence to challenge the media claim that Kerry is "the most electable".

[BootinUp]

15. But why did they vote in the WI dem primary

I mean the ones that were so satisfied with the Bushmaster?

[AP]

6. Getting Republicans to skew outcome requires a GOTV effort. I don't

think anyone has claimed there was one.

For example, I worked a campaign once where the NRA got Charleton Heston-narrated phone messages to GOTV for a conservative Dem in a primary that were targeted to Republican-registered (voting 2 out of previous 3 elections, probably) homes.

Unless there were a GOTV effort like that in WI, it's absurd to argue these aren't people who were voting for the person they'll vote for in November.

[jpgpenn]

8. "GOVT effort"?

Have you ever heard of boards and blogs? You know sorta like, ummm DU?

[AP]

11. So, where's the evidence? If it was on the blogs and internet,

someone must have seen an email or something.

Got a link?

[jpgpenn]

14. here ya go!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1080247/posts

[AP]

16. I refuse to visit FR. Would anyone credible like to summarize honestly?

[krkaufman]

21. Here's a couple posts from FreeRepublic from WI voters

Here's a couple posts from FreeRepublic from WI voters proclaiming just that, that they voted Edwards in an effort to prolong the nomination process.

To: Jorge
I have to say I am from Wisconsin, and I wholeheartedly plan on voting for Bush in November. But today I went and voted for Edwards. The situation I want to see develop is a close race heading into the Rat Nat Convention in July. A close race will end up damaging whoever eventually wins the nomination and they will end up having to fight over delegates if no one wins the nomination outright. It will end up producing a weaker rat candidate in the end. I may take flak from this, but I'm just trying to do my part.

10 posted on 02/17/2004 8:34:17 PM PST by RealPiedPiper

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1080247/posts?page=10#10

To: GulliverSwift
Politics is a contact sport. The Rats certainly know it, and play the game that way. Thats why they clean the clocks of the Republicans even when we hold the reins.

If my vote today helps prolong the Rat nomination battle, and forces them to waste money and energy on it, good. Thats less they have to fight with in the general election.

14 posted on 02/17/2004 8:43:13 PM PST by Kozak

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1080247/posts?page=14#14

Separately, here's a Moderate Independent article concerning a blog entry from 'polipundit', strategizing on how to prevent a Clark nomination.

http://www.moderateindependent.com/v2i2elections2004gop.htm

It's done. Don't pretend it isn't.

[jpgpenn]

22. you first asked and now refuse?

This is something you need to work on!

[spooky3]

Have you seen the polls that ask average Americans how often they

go to internet sites to get info on politics. We are in a TINY minority. It is highly unlikely that Republican Wisconsin voters, who stopped in at the polls after dropping off their kids at day care, hurried to work, were busy colluding on the internet to split their vote among Dean, Edwards and Kerry.

[jpgpenn]

17. enlighten yourself ...

and read the post ( with link provided ) above!

[spooky3]

20. you think the average American reads FR or DU? They don't.

You'll have to do better than that to "enlighten" anyone.

[spooky3]

9. good point, AP

It's also possible that even the most ardent Bush supporters want a Democrat alternative that they could live with, if * is not elected in November. If I were in a state where the Democratic nominee was a foregone conclusion, but the Republican primary was up for grabs and I could vote, I might well consider voting for the most liberal Republican on the ballot.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Rethugs crossover to Edwards to try to stop Kerry's march to nomination?

Edwards received 32,703 Republican votes while the margin of victory between Kerry and Edwards was 44,343. These Republican crossover votes mattered.

Subtract these GOP votes and Edward's vote percentage total becomes 30%, rather than 34%-- and a 10 point loss to Kerry, rather than a 6 point loss.

[ShaneGR]

4. Is it possible that a good percentage of those are disaffected Repubs?

Of course it is. A fairly substantial amount of Republicans want Bush gone, but they're hesitant about who they want to replace him with. Hence the importance of crossover and swing voting.

And another thing, you act like Edwards got 100% of all Republican voters. Kerry got some and so did Dean.

[Carolina]

23. I live in an open primary state

and in 2/2000, I crossed over and voted for McCain to stop the Bush coronation, thinking that if the GOP did win, at least I could have stood it better with McCain rather than Dimson.

Some repukes may be of similar mindset. Maybe they sense Bush is in deep shit but find Kerry as unpalatable as we found Bush and hence are voting for the same man they too COULD vote for, or at least accept, in November.

[jpgpenn]

5. So True!

it's amazing how people turn a blind eye to what is really going on within this election!

[AP]

7. I'm almost positive these aren't registered Republicans, but Democrats

who describe their politics as more Republican than Democrats.

That's according to the exit polls, by the way.

[spooky3]

10. Your numbers are incorrect; the difference would be closer to 2.5%.

In the first place, unless I am mistaken, the only way to ESTIMATE the number of Republican votes is from exit polling, which is a SAMPLE and relies on self-reporting. This is not the same as having a tally of the votes and identifying who placed them and to whom they were given.

In the second place, you failed to account for the fact that Kerry got 18% of the Republican vote (per today's Washington Post, page 10--with 91% of voters counted, but not sure what % of exit poll takers). 18% X approximately 71000 Republican voters (9% of the total voting, a bit shy of 800000) = 12780 Republican votes for Kerry.

So Edwards netted about 20000 more Republican votes than did Kerry. Unless all of his votes would have shifted to Kerry (rather than to other candidates or had they not voted in the Dem primary at all), which is not realistic, the difference would have been about 2.5%, not 10 points.

[John_H]

12. The whole thing comes down to a single question:

Who helps the ticket more a 4star general who helps on national security reassurance or a good looking, optimistic southerner who helps with Kerry's charisma problem. To be honest,it's a 100 percent coin flip to me. I'm glad I don't have to make Kerry's decision.

[disenfranchised]

13. My Experience

I come from a Republican family and I've got several of my family members on board with Senator Edwards. They have made donations and helped me write letters. People may want to claim it is some sinister plot because they think Edwards is more beatable, but it is not. My family does not like Bush. They LIKE Edwards.

Take it for what it's worth. At least, in my view Edwards has brought some people to the party.

[SangamonTaylor]

18. same here. my mom is now reading Four Trials

They really like that he stood up against corporations, and that he seems to connect better with them than Bush (I wont even mention what they think about Kerry).

[DemDogs]

19. Edwards reaches economic Republicans, working people regardless of party

The notion that there is a right wing conspiracy to thwart John Kerry is complete nonsense. If there was evidence, we'd see it. Kerry's crowd must be sweating.

[Lefta Dissenter]

24. Without reading all of the responses,

I'll just say that my republican brother-in-law had decided to vote for Clark. I had insisted that he come with me to listen to Clark when he spoke in Racine, WI, because I knew that my b-i-l would appreciate what Clark had to say about fiscal responsibility, education, small-businesses, and, of course, national security.

He was very impressed with Clark, particularly because he knew that Clark would be strong on national security. He said more than once that Clark's military and diplomatic experience would be valuable in a president.

So that's one cross-over voter I know personally, and I can tell you, I'll have a helluvatime convincing him to vote for any other Democrat, but I'll be working on it!