Why did Edwards do better in WI than VA?

[carolinayellowdog]

Hey,

I was impressed that Edwards went from 17% in the polls to 27% in the VA primary in the course of a week. But "the story" as defined last week by the news media was unanimously "Kerry can win in the South... Edwards distant second...Clark out of the race." Kerry's victory here undermined the claim that Southerners will only vote for Southerners, holding the party and the nation hostage to regional interests. Northern VA is the Dem stronghold and to most people up there Kerry is probably more "one of us" than Edwards. But Kerry also won the rural parts of the state where we are definitely Southern.

Now Edwards has performed even better in WI than he did in VA and "the story" is focusing on him. Hearing WI voters interviewed on NPR yesterday, I kept thinking that Edwards is *not* a regional candidate and that he plays very well in the Midwest. Still, it's hard to figure out how he could do so much better in WI than in VA. What does this tell us about Edwards, and/or about voters in the two states? Does rural vs. urban define the appeal of Edwards vs. Kerry better than North vs. South?

CYD

[nickinSTL]

1. Edwards in WI

From what I've been hearing (on NPR) the thought is that Edwards did well in WI because of his focus on jobs and opposition to NAFTA in a state where a LOT of manufacturing jobs have been lost.

[PATRICK]

8. Hints of what McCain

was doing to Bush among cross party voters and independents, though they did not make the comparison. Kerry is definitely swamping the traditional rolls of Dem primary voters for various reasons. Edwards is not bucking the party though by any stretch, just that his attraction to those not decided is much more productive and the Kerry support hard to crack.

[DemDogs]

2. Edwards won most of state other than Northern Virginia

The ability to win in the South does NOT mean the ability to win Democratic votes. It means the ability to attract independent voters and even moderate Republicans, the economic Republicans. Edwards did it in NC and has done it in the primaries. All (or nearly all, if some naysayer pops up here) the No VA Dems will vote with the Dem candidate. Who can win the others? And the others, as you say live in all regions. They are usually working class, sometimes rural and those are the ones Edwards reaches wherever they are, which is why he did well in Wisconsin and in non No VA areas of VA.

[King of New Orleans]

16. Not correct--Edwards lost all of VA.

http://sbe.vipnet.org/feb2004/d_01.htm

The above link shows the vote for each Congressional district in VA.

The closest Edwards came in any Congressional district was the SW VA district which Edwards lost 47-38.

In Wisconsin Edwards won the Milwaukee suburbs and lost the other areas of the state (though nowhere by wide margins, except the NW.

[On the Road]

35. Yes, The Geographic Spread is Surprisingly Consistent

Kerry doubled Edwards's vote total. Edwards won only the 9th congressional district. Within that district, he won only 6 of 27 counties:

Bland
Carroll
Craig
Grayson
Patrick
Wythe

I would have thought there would have been more violent swings in support, especially in a state with the diversity of Virginia. Looks like the country really is shades of purple.

[Badger1]

3. My take

My take on it, and I live in WI, is that we were not ready to corinate Kerry. We want the debate to continue and see a bit more of Edwards. Strange things can happen in the state that gave the US Senate Joe McCarthy Gaylord Nelson.

[rogerashton]

4. Edwards is a progressive,

whereas Kerry is a liberal -- and there is a long history in WI of progressivism.

I'm putting this in the context of the FDR administration, where liberals supported FDR pretty uncritically, while progressives, some of whom were Republicans in that era, often criticized FDR from the left. OK, it's a long time, but the traditions remain distinct ones.

[GreenArrow]

17. Just out of curiousity...

in what area is Edwards progressive? Some might say his NAFTA position, but is there anything else? A totality of positions and votes that indicate progressivism?

[spooky3]

23. 100% NARAL record, blocked wingnut judge appointments, proposes

equalizing capital gains (currently benefitting the rich) tax rates with ordinary earned income tax rates, supports savings account and college assistance for middle class, supports more aggressive equal employment opportunity enforcement, proposes eliminating tax incentives for offshoring jobs...and on and on...

READ JOHNEDWARDS2004.COM if you honestly want information.

[xultar]

5. Republican crossover votes, that isn't bad cuz we'll need them in the GE

[flpoljunkie]

14. Republican crossover Edwards votes to stop Kerry's march to nomination?

Who can say why they voted as they did? Edwards received 40% of the Republican vote-which was 10% of the total vote--more than any other primary held this year.

[lurk_no_more]

34. Bingo

It was a Republican attempt at stopping Kerry! As reported here last night, most Republicans that voted for Edwards were happy with * and supported the war.



And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[Caution]

6. EdMentum? n/t

[ShaneGR]

7. Narrowed race, NAFTA, and the debate he had last week

That's why.

[flpoljunkie]

15. Don't forget last minute newspaper endorsements, after all polling done.

Zogby last polling done on February 15th, reported on the 16th.

[ShaneGR]

20. That too

[Killarney]

9. I think some people are turned off by Kerry

and even though they feel Kerry is more qualified, they don't "like him" and they do like Edwards.

I know many people that feel this way and are voting Edwards over Kerry mainly on personality.

[StClone]

10. The Edwards message

Played well in a state hit as hard as any by the loss of manufacturing jobs.

There was little crossover voting to create mischief (many Republicans voting for both Dems especially Kerry) so this is a good sign for Edwards.

Wisconsinites are open to a viable candidates and it was a sad to see Dean come in limping and leave crawling. We would have liked to still have Clark in there but hey Kerry or Edwards are credible.

[Rooktoven]

11. Time, and no Wesley Clark in the race.

Lets see what happens one on one (ok one on one + DK and AS, but I digress...)

[spooky3]

22. that's what the evidence supports

Yesterday was Wisconsin only. Tennessee and Virginia were contested at the same time, and candidates had to split their time in each (and other upcoming states). Edwards is much less well known nationally than Kerry, was getting much less press because he was not in first place, and meet-and-greet is very important for his campaign. He couldn't do as much of it in the 2 states as he did in Wisconsin.

Also, I am not aware of major newspaper endorsements in Virginia. Clearly those have helped Edwards in Iowa and Wisconsin, where he received them just before primary/caucus day.

[SerpentX]

12. Minorities, minorities, minorities

Minority voters broke 55-60% for Kerry, 15-20% for Edwards in both races. Minorities accounted for 37% of the VA turnout, only 11% in WI.

[justsam]

13. Jobs and been there done

that stuff, his dad was a mill worker and he knows what it does to a family to lose a job..

[jpgpenn]

18. 10% of his TOTAL vote count came from REPUKES!

nuff said!:puke:

[StClone]

19. Sign of disgust not Monkey wrenching

The "swing" Publicans are sending a message not the trying to hurt Dems from the things I've seen.

[spooky3]

24. not true; the exit polls suggest 8% of his support came from INDEPENDENTS

and Republicans.

See today's Washington Post for an accurate representation of this.

[KittyWampus]

21. Intern Smear. By The Way, Both Virginia & Wisconsin Were Open

Primaries... hence the 10% boost for Edwards... that's 10% Republicans trying to influence the Demoratic Primaries for voting for the weaker candidate.

[bobthedrummer]

25. He convinced many here on the anti-NAFTA issue

which is priority one with Dennis Kucinich.

A lot of working people have lost their jobs here, part of Tommy Thompson's legacy of privatization IMHO.

NAFTA has got to go.

[ed_vadem]

26. compare the turnout percentages

the DPVA only whipped upthe primary when it was clear that Kerry would cruise to victory.

the VA independants and repukes are much more conservative and stayed for the VA primary.

VA trunout was only 9% I bet WI % was much higher

[spooky3]

27. good point--our VA turnout was bad.

[AP]

28. As more attention focuses on him, more people like him. It's purely

a product of increased TV time. He always does well in the debates, for example, but his 9.5 minutes in WI was probably a record for him.

[Leilani]

29. I think a lot of people want the race to continue

& it seems that Edwards was very effective on the jobs issue.

[Freddie Stubbs]

30. Clark wasn't in the race anymore

[amandabeech]

31. I'm wondering how widespread the knowledge was in VA vs. WI

that independents could vote in a Dem primary. Apparently, there is a long tradition in WI of open primaries, and Mayor/County Executive races in the Milwaukee area and Amer.Indian gaming in Madison brought a lot of independents and republicans to the polls.

It sounds like the VA primary was a relatively last minute event. I read here that independents could vote if they registered as Dems for purposes of the primary, and convinced an independent I know to go and vote. She's a generally informed person, but she had no idea that she could vote in the VA Dem. primary. She's had it with Bush, and I think she voted for Edwards. Did the combo of limited knowledge of primary "openness" and lack of additional contests/proposals on the ballot keep independents away from the VA polls to a greater degree in WI?

And of course, there is the African American vote. Should Edwards win the nomination, would he be able to energize that group of voters to any great extent? What he might gain in independent and moderate Repug votes (in the North, esp.) may be offset by fewer votes coming from the African American community.

I'm an ABB for whom electability is important, so this is an important issue for me. I'd appreciate any comments.


Amanda

[DjTj]

32. Two words: Mark Warner.

Gov. Warner is very popular in VA and his endorsement made a big difference for Kerry.

Edwards on the other hand picked up the important newspaper endorsements in Wisconsin.

[West Coast Democrat]

33. Clark was doing well in the Wisconsin polls before he got out

No doubt his dropping out helped Edwards, and perhaps Dean.

[littlejoe]

36. If you take away the republicans and independents who voted

for Edwards, his showing was less than impressive, given the time and resources devoted to Wisconsin, compared to Sen. Kerry's effort there. The media is trying to make a horse race out of this, but Edwards is going to be in for a rude awakening come Super Tuesday.