Let's get something straight about the Edwards Republican voters

[ShaneGR]

First off, only 10% of the voters today were registered Republicans. And of those only 17% expressed strong support for Bush.

So lets do the math. 17% of 10% is approximately 2.35, or something like that. So 2.35% of the voters today expressed strong support of Bush and are registered Republicans. Of those, about 50% of them voted for Edwards.

That equals about 1.2 or so %.

Wow, Edwards picked up 1.2% of the vote from stupid Republicans! All of his supporters must be GOP plants.

BOOOOOOH to that meme.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. 36% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Edwards

32% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Dean
10% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Kerry

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

[NV1962]

2. Dang you beat me to it!

:D

[ShaneGR]

4. Ok, readjust my math.... Edwards picked up .9%

In other words, the whole meme about Edwards and Republicans is garbage.

[NV1962]

9. Wrong again

You're working on the notion that the poll results are applicable to the (smaller and discrete) population of GOP voters that voted "with an agenda"

In other words, you think that stating a strong positive view of Bush is an accurate predictor of voting behavior by people with "dishonest intentions."

It's not the meme, it's your math that is... interesting, let's leave it at that. ;)

[XanaDUer]

11. And, there may be some moderate Republicans who like

Edwards and/or Kerry? :shrug:

Ones who have been hard-hit by pee-down economics?

Don't we want some people to see the light and come over to our side?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Well I'm not discussing a 'meme'

I'm just pointing out that

36% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Edwards
32% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Dean
10% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Kerry

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html


It's pretty hard to look at those numbers and come to any other conclusion than, 90% of those primary voters who want Bush to win, voted against Kerry.

[ShaneGR]

16. But you're refusing to look at how many people that was

It wasn't very many. It's like if I put a 100 people in a room and asked them who like Bush and 5% raised their hands. And then you split up the percantage of who they voted for making it look like it was a BIG number.

[NV1962]

18. Who says I "refuse" to look at numbers?

I'm simply pointing out a flaw in your approach, that's all:

1. Do all declared Republican voters in WI today amount to 10% of the votes cast in WI? Yup.
   
2. Does that negate the fact that people "on a mission" will say whatever they think sounds appropriate, upon questioning by a pollster, with others possibly overhearing, and therefore not giving an accurate idea of their population size? Nope.
   
3. Do 1) and 2) necessarily relate to each other? Nope.

It's hard to look into people's "true" intentions, and exit polls don't represent an accurate instrument to put a number on that. That's all I say...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. As I point out in post 17 those figures are simply wrong.

[XanaDUer]

3. "All his supporters must be GOP plants"

Jeez, are they saying this already? Sounds like Iowa after Kerry won it.

Oh, well. I think Edwards garnered the votes fairly, but I am also a S & B enabler.

:eyes:

[ShaneGR]

6. Sarcasm

I'm an Edwards supporter, responding to some people, one very high-profile, who are basically saying that in a roundabout way.

[XanaDUer]

8. I hear you...

We Kerry people have been there.


And, if you see anything dodgy with no real substantiation, hit alert.

Karl Rove does not rule the world. Sigh.

[lcordero]

5. look at this link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=31288

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. Why? It's totally unrelated to the subject of this thread.

[lcordero]

15. Edwards/Jobs...Wisconsin/JOBS...NAFTA/No Jobs...

Republicans need to earn a living too.

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

I've heard two Libertarians talk about this, they have said that they are going to vote with their pocketbooks. They want JOBS and if they already have JOBS, they want some upward mobility.

[jansu]

29. Trying to show

that maybe some of those crossovers were voting their pocketbook is related to this subject. Or they could be voting to screw the Democrats. Shows us why we need to change the "who" can vote in our Primaries!

[EXE619K]

7. No matter how you try to reason it....

The people in the "other" camp will try to shoot you down with their relentless resolve.

But, it's always nice to see one standing up for their trust in a candidate....whomever your support might be.

Cheer to you!

[corporatewhore]

10. I am willin to bet that 99 percent of them dont like or didntliketheirjobs

goin to china/india/mexico JE spoke out against NAFTA thats my story and im sticking to it

[SerpentX]

13. This isn't the meme I'd be worried about ...

Edwards got his clock cleaned among minority voters. He'd better figure out why before CA and NY.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. Your figures are simply wrong.

"First off, only 10% of the voters today were registered Republicans. "

True 9%

"And of those only 17% expressed strong support for Bush."

This is where you start being wrong. 17% of ALL primary voters were either 'satisfied' or 'enthusiastic' about the Bush administration, not 17% of Republican voters.

So where you go on to 'do the math' you are using phony numbers.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

[WiseMen]

20. Point is Edwards Beat Kerry Mainly from Bush Supporters (50% to 23%)

regardless of specific party affiliation.

In fact the only categories that Edwards took were

Bush supporters
Conservative voters
Independents
Republicans
Supporter of Bush Tax Cut

Kerry won handily on
Trade (outsourced jobs)
Job losses

and most other criteria.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3762911

Basically it seems that voters who had no intention of voting
Democrat in the GE voted in the primary for Edwards. That is what
the exit poll numbers show.

[atre]

21. Please explain what you like about Kerry's trade policies?

And in the process please provide any stark contrasts with Bush policies, if you can?

Let's be honest: If Kerry is elected, American jobs will continue to migrate to India.

[AP]

22. I know registered Republicans who will vote for Edwards in GE.

Why do you think he's not going to get those votes?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. Are they 'enthusiastic about the Bush administration'?

36% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Edwards
32% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Dean
10% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Kerry

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

[AP]

24. In fact they are. They're republicans who voted for him and defend him.

But they like Edwards more and will vote for him.

[AP]

25. I really don't think people who want Bush to win in November would

go out of their way to vote in the primary for someone whom they like and who has a good chance of beating Bush.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

30. You are talking to a far-lefty who voted for McCain in the 2000 primary.

And at the time I cast that vote, I knew I would never, ever vote for a Republican in a general election.

Even if my mother ran for office as a Republican, I would vote against her.

[AP]

31. And there are probably 100 people like you in your state. You need a GOTV

effort to mobilize people with ill will towards Democrats to influence the outcome of a pirmary election.

[ShaneGR]

26. kick

kick

[Feanorcurufinwe]

28. PLEASE RESPOND: your figures are wrong

Your figures are simply wrong.



"First off, only 10% of the voters today were registered Republicans. "

True - or at least close to it: 9%

"And of those only 17% expressed strong support for Bush."

This is where you start being wrong.

17% of ALL primary voters were either 'satisfied' or 'enthusiastic' about the Bush administration, NOT 17% of Republican voters.


So where you go on to 'do the math' you are using phony numbers.

What the real numbers DO show, is that many of the independents who voted for Edwards are also Bush supporters.


36% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Edwards
32% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Dean
10% of voters who were 'enthusiastic about Bush' voted for Kerry
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

[John_H]

27. Jeez. Isn't it easier just to say the truth?

Republicans think they can beat Edwards more easily than they can beat Kerry.

[SeattleDem]

33. not necessarily

most GOP strategists want this nomination process to END NOW!

Every day that the Democratic nominee remains unknown is another day of free airtime for the Dems to get their anti-Bush message across. The GOP hates that the Dems are getting this much media attention. They want a nominee NOW so they can start their smear campaign.

Yes, Kerry will be a formidable challenger, but Rove and his minions have their war chest ready to paint him as a looney liberal and they'll cherry pick from his long voting record to make their points.

Edwards, though, is also a formidable challenger, and they'll need a different, more difficult strategy since he has less of a record to tear apart. And, they know they can't get him on the trial lawyer thing because he'll pull out sympathetic victims for whom he won justice.

I don't think at all that the GOP "wants" to fight Edwards.

[LuminousX]

32. The Kerry campaign has to spin Edwards rise somehow

it is the same stick they beat up on Dean with. It is Repubulicans giving the money. It is Republicans helping him along.

Wow, those Republicans are so well organized, we'll never be able to defeat them.