I'm not sure how Edwards is more electible when he can't even beat Dem...

[Tweed]

Edwards has won one primary out of 17. In some of those other primaries, he has finished as low as fifth. Kerry has 15 firsts, 1 second and 1 third. If Edwards is going to beat Bush in the fall, how does he do it when he can't even beat Democrats?

[ibegurpard]

1. 17

How many more to go?

[KurtNilsen]

2. You're question is not relevant.

The democratic candidate will get the democratic votes.... That is pretty much given..

But....Who will have cross over appeal?

[Tweed]

7. Oh shoot! Where is Joe Lieberman or Evan Byah when you need them!

[PretzelWarrior]

8. Clark, Kerry, and Edwards would have crossover appeal

Dean, Kucinich, Sharpton would not have crossover appeal.

[KurtNilsen]

15. Agreed.

Then the relevant question is who has the most cross-over appeal?

[DjTj]

3. A question for you Tweed:

Why do you hate John Edwards so?

[Tweed]

5. Because I don't want George Bush to win in 2004

[DjTj]

11. Neither do I.

That's why we need John Edwards to be the nominee.

[Tweed]

16. That's what baffles me about your candidate choice

Edwards is too weak on foreign policy. He can talk about jobs all he wants, but he hasn't really done much to point out how he is a GREAT job creator. The man's record can't speak for him because he has next to none and what is out there doesn't do much to help appeal to potential Green voters. I can't think of one viable VP pick that wouldn't overshadow Edwards.

[DjTj]

17. Edwards can hold his own...

...on foreign policy experience or whatever Rove wants to throw at him. He's been on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for a while and they're not going to be able to catch him off his feet. Bush is more likely to misstate foreign policy than Edwards is.

Nobody's record really matters that much when you're running for President. For every asset you get from a political record there is also a liability. Edwards is very good at spinning his past to show his value, and there is very little in his record that will do any damage.

Records and resumes don't win elections, people do it. If all a candidate has is a record speaking for him, he will lose. People who have had John Edwards speaking for them have won millions of dollars against long odds, they have won a Senate seat from an incumbent Republican in the South, and they now have one of the last two viable Democratic candidates in a very competitive field.

If the Green voters decide this election, we will lose. Edwards taps into a much larger population of socially conservative working-class Americans that cut right into George Bush's base. One Green voter is simply +1 for us. Every voter from the center is worth two votes: +1 for us and -1 for Bush.

Edwards outshines anyone on the stage with him as soon as he opens his mouth. This election will not be won with records and resumes, it will be won with John Edwards.

[Barad Simith]

33. That's what I like about him

Edwards can hold his own on foreign policy experience or whatever Rove wants to throw at him.

Both Edwards and Kerry seem to be able to handle anything that's thrown at them, without seeming the slightest bit rattled. I prefer Edwards, but it's this unshakable quality that will enable one of them to beat Bush.

[bornskeptic]

34. If Edwards is so electable,

why is it that every national poll in the last month which include Bush-Edwards and Bush-Kerry matchups, Kerry does better, often by ten points or more? There are, by my count, seven such polls on this pollingreport page:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm


Furthermore, every state poll I have seen since the Iowa caucus including the same matchups also shows Kerry doing better. Besides, if Edwards got the nomination, I would be afraid that people would vote against him just so they wouldn't have to hear "My father was a millworker" for four years.

[Adelante]

18. How does this look to you?

Which comes closest to your feelings about the Bush administration

Voters who are satisfied with the Bush Administration:
20% Dean, 50% Edwards, 23% Kerry

Voters who are enthusiastic about Bush Administration:
32% Dean, 36% Edwards, 10% Kerry

Why would these people vote for Edwards over Bush in the GE?

:scared:

[DjTj]

20. They also wouldn't vote for Kerry.

Those votes aren't in play.

BUT, the people who are one step down from that, ambivalent about the Bush administration, would exhibit a similar distribution, and those votes are in play for Edwards.

[Adelante]

24. But what's their reason for voting in this primary?

If they are happy with Bush?

[DjTj]

26. I'm sure some of them would just like better options...

...and I'm sure some were freeping the election.

I don't really know. If it were me voting in a Republican primary I think I'd still vote for the person I liked better; I probably would've cast a vote for McCain even though I would've gone Gore in the GE.

I think it's still illustrative of what swing voters would do. It's unmistakeable in every state that the further left you go, the more people vote for Kerry and the further right you go, the more people vote for Edwards. This is not all freeping, Edwards really does have better centrist appeal.

[mmonk]

4. Not sure how to read everything except

I think Edwards is more vulnerable in the general election especially if there is any uptick in the economy and employment between now and November.

[atre]

6. Where would the jobs come from?

Have you been paying attention to what's been going on in the corporate world in the past four years?

[mmonk]

10. yes

but the economic cycle could still produce an uptick or enough of one that voters think the outlook is better. My point is he is more of a one issue candidate mainly centered around trade issues. That makes him more vulnerable in my opinion.

[corporatewhore]

9. he is cuz hes speakin out against nafta its the one thing libs and cons

can together rally against

[DjTj]

12. Yes!

The economy may get better, but manufacturing jobs will still be leaving and NAFTA will still be there.

[corporatewhore]

13. yep and conservatives lose jobs too!even texas GOP has an anti naftaplank

[moondust]

14. I wonder if he could carry his home state in the GE.

Not to mention other southern states.

[scheming daemons]

22. Edwards wins NC, FLA, and LA

Or at least has a real chance to.


Kerry has no chance in any state south of the mason-dixon line and east of the mississippi.


NO chance.

[moondust]

27. My concern

is that if Edwards cannot win North Carolina in the GE then he is not likely to win states deeper in the south. And there seems to be some question about his ability to win NC. He would probably win most of the 2000 blue states but probably not as many as Kerry judging from the margins in blue state primaries to date. That scenario adds up to fewer electoral votes than Gore had.

I like them both. ABB.

[DjTj]

28. I don't see...

...how Edwards loses a significant number of Kerry voters in blue states. A vast majority of those people are ABB and I can't see what issue would make you vote for Kerry but not for Edwards.

Nobody is going to win any states deeper south than North Carolina. Edwards is the only candidate that can force Bush to even spend money in NC.

[DemDogs]

19. Dems unite and the indys provide margin of victory

There has been a bandwagon effect in the party -- this year and most every year, both parties. Kerry was ahead and people jumped on. Without any institutional support or big name endorsers, Edwards held his own. Without breaking the spending caps, he held his own. And he got traction when no one thought he could, when it seemed to everyone that Kerry's momentum was unstoppable.

The bandwagon effect will be even bigger for Edwards when he takes Kerry out, because he has always been on almost everyone's list of candidates. He has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate in the exit polls in the various states this year.

And the most important thing for winning in November: Edwards has shown more than any candidate that he can attract independents that we desperately, desperately (did I say desperately?) need in November. We don't get 'em, we lose. We get 'em, or rather Edwards gets 'em and we win.

[SangamonTaylor]

21. that's the idea

Edwards appeals to more independents and moderates who realize that W. is a bad leader, but are still searching for the middle of the road leader.

One thing is for sure, it's not good for Kerry to be alligned farther left than his number one democratic rival (who is considered more toward the center).

Another thing is for sure, both Edwards and Kerry would be better leaders than W.

[MurikanDemocrat]

23. The most electible candidate will win the nomination

It's a factor that voters are already taking into consideration.

This will be determined by voters. If it ends up being Edwards, so be it.

[DemDogs]

31. Good news for Edwards, then. n/t

[Shanty Oilish]

25. We may be looking at a mega mood swing

We were attacked. We responded, swarmed and stung, and we haven't been attacked again (so far). You could say the anger glands have discharged. Maybe now we are ready to return to being happy, forward thinking people.

For all the populist, class-conscious rhetoric, Edwards is mainly a very positive, optimistic person, running a very upbeat campaign. In normal times that's hard to resist. People naturally respond positively to a young and vigorous leader.

Whether it'll happen in time to suit him or not, I'm not sure, but I believe America is inclined to turn away from fear and negativity, and the Fearless Leader :eyes: who presided over our ordeal.

To the extent that we are still fearful and anxious, we want the weathered, experienced, rather stern presence of John Kerry, whose every word rebukes either the domestic threat (Bush) or the foreign threat (terror). We perceive we are safest with him. But when we no longer worry so much about safety, we will prefer the youthful crusader.

Every time.

[AP]

29. Kerry plays on Republican homefield. Edwards plasy the game on the...

Democrats' homefield.

Do you what to play on our homefiled, or their homefield?

[Shanty Oilish]

30. It's not up to you and me

We're just clear-headed Democrats.
A couple of months ago the country was more than half on the side of Bush. He had the Republicans and that mongrel neither-world of Demoreps and cratlicans, some complacent, some lined up behind what they perceived as a protective father-figure. (ugh, ugh!)
That old wheel of fortune is ever turning. I don't really think Edwards can catch up to Kerry but I'm patient and I know sooner or later he'll be our president.
As I write this the tv is talking: "...but the real story is John Edwards..." :thumbsup:

[AP]

32. I haven't voted het, and I haven't tapped out my donations, and I'm not

done talking on DU or to people live, so, in a way, it's up to me still.