What is the demographics of the Primary voters in Iowa and NH?

[jcrew2001]

Are the Democratic primary voters in Iowa 50/50 male to female. Or are there more females?

I think that in itself could help Hillary a great deal in Iowa.

I think the primary election won't just be about who is the best candidate, but who are the primary voters. Thats why Obama could have a very strong shot in predominately Black Democratic voters.

Are there any polls on the Democratic primary voters themselves?

Much of Obama's fundraising is coming from independents and ex-republicans, so they are not likely to vote in the primary.

[XemaSab]

1. This is one of the reasons why Iowa is sort of a crappy first state

Iowa's 2.3% Black, while the US is 12.8% Black.

Iowa's 94.9% White while the US is 80.2% White.

[jcrew2001]

2. I'm inclined to believe there are also more Female

registered Dem than men in every state of the nation. This would give Hillary a great advantage.

[XemaSab]

3. Not that great....

Women are hard on each other...

Conservative women will never vote for her, and the more liberal women... that whole "stand by your man" act was sort of lame. Not to mention her hawkish ways. And the cookies. I think her female base isn't as big as one would assume.

[jcrew2001]

7. Yet Hillary is the one great hope for the Feminist Baby Boomers

Even though she is a flawed person and candidate, she is the only woman anywhere close to capturing the WH for this generation.

[yourout]

4. You can't win the nomination in Iowa but you sure can loose one.

Ask Dean.

[jcrew2001]

8. Hillary will lose if she places 3rd in Iowa

She will lose the nomination.

[Colobo]

11. Let's hope it happens.

[youthere]

22. ...

*crosses fingers* This is one Iowa female that will likely not caucus for her.

[mruddy]

23. I'm also an Iowa woman...

and I will definitely NOT caucus for Hillary. Will NOT vote for her either if she's the nominee. I'll vote, but it will be a write in for Edwards, Gore or Biden.

[Redneck Socialist]

5. Don't know how it breaks down by registered voters, but...

as of 2005 NH was 50.7% female.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/33000.html

[jcrew2001]

10. Is there anything about Registered Democrats?

I'm sure Dean has the numbers, if any candidate could micro-target primary voters, they can win.

[Redneck Socialist]

14. According to CNN the NH electorate is 25.6% Dem, or at least it was in 2002

690,159 registered voters as of November 2002 -- 25.6% Dem., 36.7% Rep., 37.7% unaffiliated

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NH/

[jcrew2001]

18. Thats a great site

There are definitely more female voters in the Dem primaries in Iowa and NH than males. It could help Hillary.

[Steve_in_California]

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[IndianaGreen]

9. Here is my take on the Democratic Iowa caucus voters

They are very nice people, and their state is a fine place to live.

I may have gone overboard in applying to Iowa the same terminology used by a French Ambassador to describe a certain country far away from here, just because I was annoyed at the current primary system.

It is too early to know how the caucus is going to turn out, and I hope we don't get another "loser," and definitely not Hillary!

I am very pessimistic about the future!

[CK_John]

12. Iowa, because the caucus seems to be a male environment, will

require Hillary to organize the party movers and shakers. This detail has been taken care of and she will carry Iowa.

[Colobo]

13. Obama's got 30 offices in Iowa and he's very organized over there

ready to steal Clinton's thunder.

[CK_John]

16. Obama is running a primary campaign in a caucus state. Wrong. A caucus

is a top down fight and a primary is a bottom up fight. A caucus is controlled by who knows the Robert's rules of order the best, and Hillary has all those in place.

[ISUGRADIA]

20. a caucus is not about robert's rules of order

it's about getting people to the caucus on a cold jan night and staying long enough to vote. it just takes one precinct leader to know when to call for the vote and get it moving along to delegate election. obama's campaign seems to know this.

[zulchzulu]

15. Having been in Iowa in 2004 for the caucus, it's not a "male environment"

If anything, more women show up as caucus goers than men from my experience. It's about the ground game and it's about showing up at a specific time to caucus. The party "movers and shakers" can be seen suspiciously if they are perceived as "following orders". Iowans hate to be told what to think and I highly respect their untiring judgment on vetting candidates.

It's also good for candidates to get their campaigns up and running in such an inexpensive media market.

As for Clinton, she is going to fade hard by December. People I know in Iowa who have their ears to the ground say it's inevitable. She'll place a distant third. Obama and Edwards are going to fight hard for a win.

[CK_John]

17. I have lived in a caucus state and and attended many. You are right more women attend but..

the men make all the motions and women do the seconding. And until the DEM party required gender balanced delegates, it was men all and women 0.

[rinsd]

19. CNN exit polls from Iowa and New Hampshire Dem priamries in 2004

Iowa - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/

(some stats I thought interesting)

Women - 54%
Men - 46&

68% were 45 or older

45% had no college degree

45% were 1st time caucus goers

41% made up their mind in the last week

New Hampshire - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html

Similar male/female ratio

44% under the age of 45.

45% were self identified independents.

95% were former primary voters.

[jcrew2001]

21. Where will the moderate white male vote?

If the moderate white male republican stays with the GOP, he could very well choose a more "moderate" GOP change candidate like Giuliani.

It might be enough to have a moderate GOP beat a "liberal" Hillary Clinton, if people are scared of voting for her.

Or, the white males can join the Dem party and vote for Obama or Edwards in the primaries; making the demog 50/50

[rinsd]

24. Keep in mind those numbers were of Dem primary voters, not the general populace (nt)

[jcrew2001]

25. My point is that if more moderate white males join the Dem party

in 2008, they can affect the primary votes, by not voting for Hillary but instead for someone else.

So, even though there is a majority of Women in the Dem party in 2004, that may very change if more men join in 2008.

However, I personally don't think many men will leave the GOP to join the Dem party. It'll be more likely that they will stick with the GOP and vote for a moderate candidate.

Remember, Cheney isn't running so the GOP is not hamstrung into voting for the incumbent VP. As a general rule, voters seem to want complete change after 8 years, so this would hold true for even GOP voters who were satisfied with GWB. Everyone gets bored and wants things to be different.

But they might not want the "radicalism" that a Hillary presidency evokes. But I personally don't think it would be 'end of the world' radicalism as the GOP pundits claim. But the fear of doom might scare voters away from her.

I'm confident Bill can reign in any 'dangerous' hillary plans.