Prediction: Electability meme will now be turned on Kerry

[JackRiddler]

It couldn't happen to a more deserving guy, but that is not the point. In the next two weeks, we will see a demonstration of why "electability" is a slippery, meaningless, endlessly flexible whore of an argument.

Edwards will be proclaimed more charismatic, more Southern, better looking, dynamic, more able to unite. He is not of the special interests, less likely to be a womanizer, has a nicer smile and message, less negative, and NOT FROM MASSACHUSSETTS.

Liberals have already convinced themselves he's more liberal than Kerry and moderates will thrill at how he's NOT FROM MASSACHUSSETTS and hence in some magic way less liberal, at least in his image.

Kerry will probably pull it out on Mar. 2, but it will be a bruising two weeks as the media play through their usual cycle of build-and-destroy, dramatize and sensationalize.

The issues will continue to be irrelevant.

And will we not deserve it? We decided to marry Electability, and now we are surprised it's a whore?

[WilliamPitt]

1. Prediction: Predictions on DU are wrong 99.2% of the time

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. that's actually a historical survey

more than "prediction". The history of DU as it were.

[JackRiddler]

11. Couldn't possibly be worse than 30 percent wrong...

Given that so many possible outcomes, good and bad, end up predicted on this board, I'm sure the pct. is better than that.

But if you agree, Will, I'll take your bet. The loser has to make a public proclamation favoring some exotic position of the winner.

To the second respondent, I must say: You don't know hate! I don't hate Kerry. To me he is irrelevant, a tool, a disposable icon who will probably win in November. At which point I will drink to the end of Bush 2, along with the rest of us. And then I will keep fighting for what I think is right. And I will watch, with mild dread, as we head on to the later victory of Bush 3 or its equivalent - all because we sold out to strategy, as with Clinton.

No. What I hate is the machinery and the mentality that assassinated Dean, this insecurity masquerading as pragmatism. And what I predict that this same machinery will now have a little session with Kerry, probably not a fatal one.

[PurityOfEssence]

13. 87.5 percent of all statistics

are made up on the spot.

[RetroLounge]

22. or not

:boring:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. Again, what is with the Kerry hate here!!!!

:argh:

[mlawson]

30. I suppose it matches the Edwards hate here.

And I agree, :argh:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Kerry is electable because he's the best, most experienced guy

there's no illusion here.

[still_one]

4. Wrong

People are voting who they believe in. I would not be so shallow to think that they just look at electability...

[PretzelWarrior]

5. prediction: New Coke will be a hit. pets.com is can't-miss stock buy

and WMD issue will not have legs.

[eileen_d]

6. You mean media whores are media whores?

Perish the thought.

[DenverDem]

7. Meet the new boss

same as the old boss.

We won't get fooled, again.

Oh, wait. Never mind.

[emulatorloo]

21. Happy Jack Wasn't Tall

But He Wasn't Fat

Pictures of Lily is another great Who Song.

I like I'm Free too.

[mountainvue]

8. Wishful thinking?

[MurikanDemocrat]

10. The secret forces of Skull and Bones will come to the rescue

[PurityOfEssence]

12. As well it should be: he's got WHOPPER IMAGE PROBLEMS

Hey, I like the guy, but he's got a presence that's almost soporific at times. He's like a cross between James Lipton and Ben Stein.

America hates intellectuals. The heartland doesn't like Boston Brahmins. Dry rectitude irritates the hell out of the bumpkin suckers who support the monarchists who feed off them.

Voting against the '91 Gulf War will be a HUGE, HAUNTING ISSUE with which the junta will harangue him no end. Votes against funding of the military will be distorted in a way they simply can't be for Edwards' short career.

He is not as electable as John Edwards. He isn't even close to being as electable as John Edwards. The only demographic Kerry may be able to carry more of than Edwards is the veteran vote; some disgruntled conservative veterans may stray to Kerry, where Edwards wouldn't have that cachet. The net there would be small, though. Edwards will get all of the other voters Kerry can, PLUS he's get the South, rural voters (look at his platform; it explains Oklahoma) non-voters, left extremists (they'll each lose some, but Edwards will lose less) and the all-important facile idiots who simply think he's cute. Edwards has less negatives to explain away, and he's deft at dispatching them and moving on.

He's electric to watch; one likes him and is fascinated by him. He's got novelty going for him. Joy and optimism exude from him, whereas rectitude and stolidity come from Kerry.

I'll close with this thought: Kerry supporters and fans have repeatedly told me of late how strong he looks up there surrounded by firefighters and veterans, and how this reassures them about his strength and human warmth. Kerry himself said of Dean when Dean said that he'd overcome his lack of foreign experience by having the right people with him: "we're not electing a committee, we're electing a President". The principal moments are going to be where the guy's there alone, and I dare anyone to tell me that Kerry would do as well against Junior in a debate as Edwards will. The pshawing of "pointy headed intellectuals" will be heard far and wide with a Kerry performance, whereas Edwards will out folksy him and defy the premise of being a man of the people.

Edwards is infinitely more electable, and when you listen to the pundits, the righties are TERRIFIED of him.

[JackRiddler]

14. thank you for illustrating my point n/t

[JackRiddler]

24. Though perhaps you miss my irony...

I don't actually agree with what you're writing. You are merely illustrating my point, that the electability meme can stretch to fit anyone's requirements, and can be used to against candidate after the next.

"Anybody But Bush, long as he can win" is the worst possible denominator. It means little, it's too easy to twist.

We should be for justice, truth and freedom, against the Bush Lies. That means something.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Exactly, but we're figuring it out FOUR DAMN WEEKS TOO LATE!

And it is absolutely ripping apart my insides, my everything. How in electability hell did we detour to blase John Kerry, after the little anti-war gimmick candidate imploded pre-Iowa? It makes zero sense, unless the same celestial scriptwriter who mandated those daffy Florida ballots is now tweaking brainwaves of Democrats everywhere.

I work in math and none of it works out for John Edwards, minus winner take all.

[pansypoo53219]

15. fer cryin out loud

IS GEORGE 'RE-ELECTABLE'???

[Old and In the Way]

16. Kerry's gonna make a great President.

It's Edwards that's the big unknown. He has his own baggage and weaknesses that the RNC will certainly exploit. Love the man's charm and boyish good looks, but I'm not betting the farm on him :-)

Kerry's got the name recognition, he has resume that counts for lots of moderate-right voters that we will need to win this election.

He has the foreign policy experience and I truely believe that he's going to work to expose and end the ongoing problem of the shadow government that brought us Iran/Contra, BCCI, RW death squads, etc. He'll be the guy to deal with this cancer once and for all.

He's also talking a new energy policy that addresses the looming Peak Oil problem....this is where the opportunity lies- derailing a national security policy that centers on occupying oil fields and putting Americans back to work in developing a different future for America by investing in alternate/renewable energy and the revolutionary infrastructural changes that this will require..

[Lexingtonian]

17. That's nice....

Not that single point you raise convinces me, but it's an amusing attempt to come up with a rationale.

CBS News poll, 2/15-16 : Kerry 48 Bush 43
Bush 50 Edwards 41

Just wait until the Trial Lawyer-Special Interest waterboy-can't even win North Carolina stuff begins. Liberal? Not a womanizer? A 'message'? Wanna bet $$$ on that?

Oh, and you want to learn how to spell 'Massachusetts' correctly. It'll be useful for the next nine years :D

[JackRiddler]

25. Thank you for missing my point

And for going after my spelling and typos, a real winner.

You seem to think I am supporting Edwards. I am not. I am telling you the obvious: the media are going to build him up next as the "electable" alternative to Kerry, not because it's true or untrue, but because "electability" puts the media in the driver's seat.

(PS - Diss and dismiss is childish.)

[krkaufman]

18. Yes, I expect the media to turn on Kerry within a couple days

Yes, I expect the media to turn on Kerry within a couple days, through negativity or shifting their praise to Edwards.

We'll see how Kerry weathers it. The 2 weeks between now and Super Tuesday will be huge. It's more than enough time for the media to pump Edwards up, but will it be enough time for Kerry to juice-up his primary campaigning and hold off Edwards on voting day?

[AnnitaR]

20. The Pukes would devour Edwards on

the foreign policy experience meme.

Make no mistake about it, if Edwards is the nominee the big Fear machine will go into action. Can't you see the commercials now? This is one are where Edwards would have a really tough time. He has charisma out the wazoo but that won't help him on the experience issue. Don't underestimate how much 9/11 scared the hell out of women across this country. Sure they care about jobs, health care etc. However I am sure that they are still going to make their decision on who makes them feel safe. I don't think Edwards will play all that well to those who fell that way.

Trust me Kerry was never my first choice. I have had a really hard time coming to terms with him as our potential nominee. However with Clark out, Kerry is best to go toe to toe against Bush and the giant fear machine. You surround Kerry with the Vets he saved in Nam, surround him with all the vets supporting him now, and if he picks someone like Clark as his running mate... they will not be able to use fear against us in this election.

Kerry has that advantage over Edwards. He will still be able to take on Bush over jobs and health care. Kerry will be able to fight Bush on all of the important issues. He makes a more formidable candidate. Edwards is a great guy and I have no doubt in my mind that he will one day be President. I just don't think now is his time.

[JackRiddler]

28. Pukes& Dems will be devoured depending

on whom the preponderance of the power elite decide to destroy.

Even Fox can be turned on Bush if the decision is made.

[emulatorloo]

23. The Media Likes Drama, so they will do what they need to do to make this

Dramatic.

They need to deliver ratings, so they can get more and more advertiser dollars.

The way they feel they can do this is to make everything like a narrative soap opera.

So they will spin Edwards Kerry battle as a soap opera.

They were talking on MSNBC last night how this "surge" gives more "entertainment value" to their coverage.

Electibility? Sure it will be discussed. . . .Both guys have their pros and cons re electibility, so yes I expect it to be discussed.

[DrFunkenstein]

26. Electability Means Matching Up Well Against Bush

It's more than the war hero thing. Kerry is known as a saavy politician who doesn't take the bait where others would. He's been through several bruising campaigns with national-level intensity against a hostile Boston media. Kerry has been underestimated every time and every time he claws his way to the top. The man's a brawler.

[JackRiddler]

27. Electability is spin

They're all equally electable, since by November one of two things will happen:

1. Bush will be coronated by events orchestrated from within his own camp, Democrats made irrelevant.

2. Bush will implode due to unforeseen circumstances, or will be dismantled by events orchestrated from within his own camp (in the broader sense: CIA, ruling elites, corporate leaders will cut him down).

In other words, there will be an attempt to determine the results in advance of Election Day. And it will probably work.

Either way, Bush will one day implode and be considered unpopular. There is a need for regime rotation.

Under those circumstances, I want someone who actually fought Bush, instead of the grey pretender Kerry.

But hell, Dean is not electable, as we have seen. Soon as he gets close to the prize, the media do one of their assassination campaigns and the Democratic leadership cheers.

[2004Donkeys]

29. We're 12 points up on Bush. What about electability now?

n/t

[JackRiddler]

31. Will you finally understand?

Electability is determined by how the media wants to spin you.

They call you electable, you are electable.

One prerequisite is that you don't rock the boat.

Rocking the boat, in this case, would be to tell the full truth about the Bush gangster government, about the sources of "terrorism," about USA PATRIOT Act, foreign aggressions and domestic repressions.

If you don't do that, you are allowed to attack Bush within a narrower range of domestic fine adjustments.

That is what "electable" means.

Then you are allowed to win.

Democrats as usual chose to marry electability. That is why they will continue getting the same crap as always, and wondering why nothing ever changes.

[Snivi Yllom]

32. buyer's remorse

Electability won't mean much after Super Tuesday.

[littlejoe]

33. I see things in a completely opposite light.

Edwards hasn't really been scrutinized yet, but that will change very soon. My guess is he will be barely able to survive it, leaving him too badly damaged to go much past Super Tuesday.