Very strange Dean exit polling

[F.Gordon]

13% Republican, 19% Conservative, 23% satisfied with or very enthusiastic about Bush*, 16% strongly approved of Iraq War, 23% think the economy is good/excellent.

http://www.election.cbsnews.com/campaign2004/poll/delegate_wi_0.shtml

Umm...WTF?

Am I "out of the loop" here? Has this been going on since day one? I posed this question on another thread, but with no takers.

[George_Bonanza]

1. A point worth talking about

Perhaps they just wanted to stop Kerry and extend the primaries to deplete Kerry's energy and money, although I doubt that the Dems would suddenly run short on cash in the GE.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. The Rethugs are screwing around with the election.

They want to keep us fighting with one another so that we don't
go after *!

[eaprez]

2. They took to heart

...the Bush people saying they looked forward to running a campaign against Dean....so like sheep, they are doing their part to try to make that happen for Bush

[ringmastery]

4. Republican sabotage

Republicans voted for Dean because he would be easy to win against.

Dean's numbers are probably inflated because of this.

[F.Gordon]

6. But is Wisconsin the first?

Or, has this been going on all along? Jus' askin'

[arewethereyet]

8. the republicans for Dean is a regular thing in open contests

really big in Virginia

[F.Gordon]

13. Republicans for Dean?

I'm really out of the loop. The exit polling data from Wisconsin seems a little more than just "republicans for Dean". More like Bush* supporters voting for Dean.

Gawd this shit is getting wacky.....

[arewethereyet]

19. sorry, thats what I meant. Republicans voting for Dean

to skew things.

Sorry for being obtuse

[spooky3]

10. Virginia voting is open to non-Democrats.

[Taeger]

9. I like Dean ...

But I'm not confident in his ability to win the election. He fumbles and bumbles too much. At times, he has been downright incoherent.

[mot78]

5. Probably Freepers

I saw a Freeper thread where a Wisconsin conservative said he felt dirty by voting Dem.

[MercutioATC]

7. Actually, Edwards numbers were the same way...and, once again

the exit polls that Kerry is the only candidate who's voters are supporting more for his percieved ability to beat bush and less for his positions on the issues.

[atre]

18. Yeah, most Kerry voters think he's the most electable

And they think so because the media tells them that. The assertion is completely dubious when looking at the Electoral College outlook.

[Monument]

11. Repubs are confident they win if Dean is nominee, so they vote for him

[Kurovski]

20. If the Repubs were so confidant

then why did they spend so much dough on anti-Dean ads in Iowa? No one else got this treatment.

If Repubs wanted Dean to go toe-to-toe with president numbskull, then why did R pundits and commentators for months deem Dean "unelectable?" They never, ever wanted Dean to debate L'il Sprout.

Dean, like Kucinich, Sharpton and maybe Clark are actual threats to the corporations that run the show.

Deans difference was that he had a historic amount of dough piled up, and that's what can get anyone elected. And by anyone, I of course mean George W most specifically.

The R's, the DNC, and their corporate sponsors along with corporate owned media were scared by Dean. Their behavior proved it.

[Monument]

27. During Iowa, Dean was the presumptive nominee, and the full force of...

the right wing came crashing down on him. Republicans are not afraid of Dean, far from it. They wanted to crush him when he was the front runner because it was "conventional wisdom" he would be the nominee. At this point, most day to day Republicans think that Dean is a nut, and would love to see him run against Bush for an easy win.

[Kurovski]

35. they could have had that "easy win".

Why did they spend so much money and time to destroy him in the primaries when they could have had an easy win in the election?

I still say they were afraid of him. actions spoke louder then the Republican whistling in the dark about how he is unelectable, and how great it would be to run against him. They made certain that would never happen.

[dsc]

12. It would have been nice if you had clearly reported the data

Those percents are percents of Dean's voters not the total voters. This 13% of Dean's voters were conservative, not Dean got 13% of conservative to vote for him. Those are very different things. My guess, is that those conservatives are more toward libertarian or very pro gun but against the war, or something like that. BTW 13% of 18% is is 2.34%. Puts your post in some perspective doesn't it.

[nonconformist]

14. Plus, Edwards got comparable numbers (nt)

[F.Gordon]

16. That was exactly how I presented the data

It would have been nice if you had clearly understood that.

[dsc]

23. No it isn't

Nowhere in your post, and I just got done looking again, do the words OF HOWARD DEAN'S VOTERS appear. You also do not provide any similar figures for other candidates which would have allowed a person to check without looking at the poll. Nor do you state the percentages recieved by the candidates. I teach math for a living. I know what a clear statement of math is. That post wasn't one.

[F.Gordon]

30. Well, "Howard Dean's Voters"

in Wisconsin seem to include a lot of Bush* supporters. I'll include the link here again so you can "do the math" for yourself...

http://www.election.cbsnews.com/campaign2004/poll/delegate_wi_0.shtml

I thought it was odd and was just curious if this had been going on in other States. That's all. My intent wasn't to "attack Dean". The reason I didn't list stats on the other candidates is because no other candidate had numbers skewed in this manner on the polling questions. Edwards was close on a few, but the aggregate of the polling data on Dean just seemed very strange.

Since we can't get past "the math" I guess we can't really discuss my question.

Peace.

[dsc]

31. I can't get past the math

because the math makes or breaks your point. Point succinctly, I posted the numbers below, Kerry and Dean got very nearly the same numbers of those voters. They tied amongst people satisfied with Bush, and people who strongly approved of the war. Kerry barely beat Dean amongst those who called themselves conservative and approved of the economy. Dean narrowly beat Kerry amongst very conservative voters. Kerry quite handedly beat Dean amongst voters who approved of the war. That is my point, and yes the math matters.

[Tinoire]

17. FINALLY! A KNOWN DEAN supporter weighing in! Thank you. Sheesh!

FINALLY! A DEAN and not Kerry or anything else supporter weighing in on the poster's question!

And this my friend is how Murdoch does it. Someone asks an honest question and the swarm comes repeating the propaganda. It will take astute people like you to unspin the spin.

Dedicated to all the little people in America in honor of a man assassinated by the machinery:

1. We shall overcome
We shall overcome
We shall overcome some day

Chorus:
Oh deep in my heart
I do believe
We shall overcome some day

2. We'll walk hand in hand
We'll walk hand in hand
We'll walk hand in hand some day
Chorus:

3. We shall all be free
We shall all be free
We shall all be free some day
Chorus:

4. We are not afraid
We are not afraid
We are not afraid today
Chorus:
5. We are not alone
We are not alone
We are not alone today
Chorus:

6. The whole wide world around
The whole wide world around
The whole wide world around some day
Chorus:

7. We shall overcome
We shall overcome
We shall overcome some day
Chorus:

[Sensitivity]

32. God can't we be frank: Dean Best on Pro-War, Pro-Bush == Something Smells

I am looking at the numbers from the NBC exit. But it seems clear
that much of Dean's vote was not based on our core issues. How else
could Dean do best against Kerry among the Pro-War and Pro-Bush and Very Conservative primary voter.

Similar funkiness is in Edwards numbers.

Even more weird is all the RW pundits cheering for Edwards with Drudge leading the parade. They are playing us. Isn't it obvious?

[PretzelWarrior]

at this stage...he got a lot of help from Repubs trying to kick

Kerry down. They know he's strong against Bush...and if they can push Edwards in there, they have an easier November.

[funky_bug]

15. Check THIS stat out

Check this out:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

86% of those that are enthusiastic or satisfied with the Bush admin, voted Edwards. He also got 82% of the vote for those who are okay with Iraq.

"Things that make you go, "hmmm."

[PretzelWarrior]

21. see? the mainstream dems are overwhelmingly for Kerry

can't wait for more closed primaries to answer the question even more resoundingly

[westcoastbias]

25. Edwards has the broadest appeal!

Has it ever occurred to anyone that Edwards is the best candidate to beat Bush! Many people, including some Republicans disdain both Bush and Kerry for their unrelenting support for NAFTA. This is the other huge issue that concerns mainstream Americans. If Dean was off the ballot, Edwards would have won. Edwards has a tough challenge to stay in the race on Super Tuesday, March 2. But he has two weeks, which should be long enough for people to take a good look at him. If he survives with wins in Ohio and Georgia, the next round of states are southern, and this thing goes to the convention.

[NashVegas]

22. I Find This One Equally Interesting:

More Important to Your Vote Clark -- Dean -- Edwards -- Kerry -- Kucinich -- Sharpton -- Uncommitted
Can Beat Bush (33%) 1% 10% 28% 59% 1% 1% 0%
Issues (60%) 1% 23% 39% 29% 5% 2% 0%

There is a HUGE disparity between the numbers of those voting for Kerry on perceived electability vs issues.

[funky_bug]

24. With Bush in office, "issues" are a moot point

I'll take Bushwacking over policy promises any day of the week... particularly on Super Tuesday.

[andym]

28. More analysis

Of the 12% of the electorate that was satisfied with Bush:
Edwards got 50% of their vote, and Dean only got 20% of their vote.
Kerry got 23% of their vote, so there is no Republican conspiracy among this group to "favor" Dean to skew the Democratic results.

Of the 5% of the electorate that was enthusiastic about Bush:
Edwards got 36% of their vote and Dean got only 32% of their vote.
So if anything the small percentage of voters who love Bush wanted Edwards more than Dean.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

So I don't think that much should be made about R's influencing the vote to help Dean. To the contrary, Dean obviously has earned his support from people who want to be rid of Bush!

[dsc]

26. It gets even better.

Currently the total support in WI is 39,35,18 for Kerry, Edwards, and Dean respectively. That means Kerry got twice as many votes as Dean did. Thus each percentage point of Kerry votes is equal to 2 percentage points of Dean's. 11% of Kerry's voters were conservative, 20% of Dean's thus Kerry had more conservative voters than Dean did. 2% of Kerry's voters were very conservative, 5% of Dean's. Here Dean did better than Kerry. 25% of Kerry supporters approved of the war, 32% of Dean's did thus more war supporters voted for Kerry. It was 8% to 16% among strongly approved so they were even. The economy was 12% of Kerry's voters vs 23% of Dean's basicly a tie but a slight edge for Kerry. and they were tied among satisfied with Bush 7 to 14. Thus this massive plot, had next to no effect on the outcome and in point of fact, what effect it did have, benefited Kerry.

[Monument]

29. 86% of JE voters ENTHUSIASTIC or SATISFIED with BUSH; 33% of JFK; 52% Dean

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3762911

[spooky3]

33. no, you're not reading the table correctly.

It is confusing.

But what the table says is that 12% of all of the voters were satisfied and 5% were enthusiastic about Bush. Half of the 12% and about 1/3 of the 5% voted for Edwards. In other words, less than 8 percentage points of those who voted tonight went for Edwards and were either satisfied or enthusiastic about *. He got about 35% of the vote. Therefore, 35-8, or 27 percent of the voters went for Edwards and were either dissatisfied or angry with Bush. In other words, more than 3 times the number of people who voted for Edwards were angry or dissatisfied rather than satisfied or enthusiastic.

[dsc]

34. No that isn't what the poll said.

You have to be very careful when reporting this stuff. Among voters who were satisfied with Bush Edwards got 50, Kerry got 23, and Dean got 20. Among those who were enthusiastic Edwards got 36, Kerry 10, and Dean 32. Those are very different things. Satisfied made up 12% of the electorate, while enthusiastic made up 5%. Thus 6% out of 35% of Edwards voters were satisfied with Bush, that is less than 20% of Edwards voters.