I Think Edwards Wins the Nomination Now

[On the Road]

Maybe it's premature, but I think tonight changed the landscape.

More Dean supporters and undecideds will switch to Edwards. If Dean drops out, most of his support will probably swing to Edwards, which will make it a fairly even two-man race. Edwards will get a bump in the polls and will probably surpass Bush in head-to-head national polls.

I think Kerry no longer appears inevitable. Kerry looks shocked at the results, and his dismissive comments will probably not help him.

How did Edwards do it? By being relentlessly positive and focused on jobs and economics. (I wish Dean had done the same.) Regardless of positions and voting records, that's what Edwards has emphasized. And that's what voters want to hear.

[onebigbadwulf]

1. I agree completely

I would much rather swing my vote to Edwards than Kerry.

[digno dave]

64. Wouldn't bother me, but Kerry WILL have more $$$ in the end

I think Dean supporters are likely to follow whoever Dean chooses to endorse, at least more so than supporters of other candidates.This could be great news for Edwards if dean chooses to endorse him. I could be wrong, they can speak for themselves.
The only bad thing about it if Edwards wins is that he accepts matching funds and therefore is limited in the amount of money he can raise.
Kerry, by an act of faith alone considering his standing in the polls when time for the financial decision was made, opted out of federal funding .This will be good for us if he is the nominee for obvious reasons.

[SangamonTaylor]

2. I couldn't agree more!

[eaprez]

3. I don't know

....if I'd go so far to say he has the nomination....BUT...even if Kerry is the official winner...it will be Edwards who is most covered in the news - more people will now give him a second look....and ladies and gentlemen...we got us a horse race!!!!

[KittyWampus]

4. Edwards Has Little Money And Will NOT Do Well In Closed Primaries

but the mediawhores will do their best to help him along.

I'll bet if Edwards loses by 1% he'll call it a tie like when Clark beat him in OK.

[mlawson]

15. Again, do you support anyone??? n/t

[KittyWampus]

23. Not Since Clark Dropped. Now I Just Call Em As I See Em

If the republicans can't have Dean they'll settle for Edwards.

[in_cog_ni_to]

29. OR if he comes in second

they will never stop talking about that either! Clark was 2nd in NM, ND and AZ and we never heard a word about it. :eyes:

[spooky3]

33. with all due respect, he was not nearly as close to winning in those

states as Wisconsin appears to be, and WI has a lot more electoral votes than do NM and ND.

[Cuban_Liberal]

48. The money will come, after tonight.

Absent a crystal ball, that second statement is speculation.

[jab105]

I would vote for either, 100% ABB all the way...

but Edwards is a stronger candidate...my mom would not vote for a "Massachusetts liberal"...Edwards has a great story, and a Camelt feel to him, good looks, young family, rags to riches, etc.

I was for Dean, and would love to still be, but I'd be able to work for Edwards, I would not be as enthusiastic about Kerry, though I dont dislike him (its only based on the best against Bush in 9 months after the election has taken some blows on them)

[disenfranchised]

5. I hope you're right.

I like the way you think!

[AndyP]

6. I second that!

I just voted for Dean, but it was a big choice last minute. I had a weird feeling this would happen, and my buddy and I thought about a last minute change just in case Edwards need our 2 votes. But we stuck to our guns and went with the Deananator.

Back to the subject. I think the whole reason Kerry is so out in front is due to the media hype. If Edwards pulls this out I think it will even it up.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. until the national security issues comes up again

and people realize JK has better experience.

[On the Road]

22. Yes, But For Voters Concerned About National Security,...

Edwards has been much more consistent on Iraq and the war on terror.

The veteran thing is overblown. And frankly I think the security issue is overblown, too. However, Edwards has not waffled, and voters who are concerned about those that issue.

Frankly, Edwards's comments on Iraq, terrorism, and national security are SO supportive of Bush's positions that it's difficult for me to get behind him 100%. But it will probably play better than in the general election.

[eileen_d]

31. Are voters who don't follow the candidates' every move

really going to fret over the "consistency" of Kerry's position? If they disgagree with Edwards' position on the war, will they forgive him because he's consistent?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

45. No it won't! Iraq is going to hell and JRE's constant....

support of Bush will haunt him. JRE too has supported
a failed policy in Iraq. Kerry realized the mistake and is
offering an alternative.

[EXE619K]

8. My opinion....

Given the current state of the primaries...

Edwards might be the last hope for establishment Dems to get the Deaners into their fold.

They better start thinking fast.

Go check out the Dean blog sometimes.... Lotsa "I'm never voting for Kerry/will go third party!" threads.

[Toucano]

9. Dean supporters go to Edwards.

Why?

How is Edwards more appealing than Kerry to Dean supporters?

[eaprez]

14. Perhaps Not

....BUT Dean dislikes Kerry so would never throw his base to him.

[eileen_d]

16. I don't get it either

I think the number one reason is "He's not Kerry"

[SadEagle]

26. Think of what Dean supporters like about Dean's character.

Well, it's in large part assertiveness, directness, openness. Now, I think you'd agree that it would be fair to say the Kerry is the exact opposite of this --- he is careful, calculating, hedges his bets, etc. Edwards, on the other hand, is somewhere in the middle. So yes, I think you're partly right, but not only in terms of negative emotions, but just largely because Kerry is just so different character-wise from Dean

[eileen_d]

38. No, I don't think Kerry is the exact opposite

And frankly I don't know a whole lot about Edwards, although I appreciate that he hasn't openly attacked other candidates as much as both Kerry and Dean have.

What makes the most sense to me (and I'm not saying it's right or wrong) is that Dean and Kerry have been more adversarial toward each other, so it is less of a stretch for Dean supporters to back Edwards.

[SadEagle]

46. Well, yes, that too, definitely a factor

I do think Edward's "be positive" strategy is generally a good one; it did serve him well in Iowa, swelling his post-allocation support quite a bit, and it'd probably serve him well if it becomes Kerry v. Edwards....

As for my post.. well, thinking about it, I think it's more accurate if you substitute "style" for "character".

[mlawson]

10. At least this puts the primary fight back in its PROPER time line!

I mean, whoever HEARD of a nomination of a nonincumbent being settled in February???? This gets it back to the way things used to be.

And yes, this *could* be a turning point. We have to wait and see. Edwards will now have the limelight going into the Super Tuesday races, something he had to have. Much depends upon how Dean reacts, maybe DK, plus funding, and MOST OF ALL, how the party bigwigs react.

[boxster]

11. I disagree. Here's why....

Edwards is doing well in WI because of overwhelming support from Republicans and Independents, per CNN and others. He won't have the same benefit in states that don't have open primaries.

[eaprez]

18. Can't be

...that 'overwhelming' as only 11% of the voters in Wisconsin were Republican.

[boxster]

21. Don't forget the Independents, nearly a third of voters.

They can't vote in many closed primaries, either.

[eaprez]

28. Edwards will be

the news story coming out of this and now many Dems will give him a second look!

[boxster]

34. I don't disagree. My point was that most primaries are not like WI.

So, it isn't going to be as easy as some people may believe.

Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Kerry in WI (his lead in exit polls of Dems was nearly 20%), so Edwards is going to have to pull significant support from Kerry to win in states with closed primaries.

[eaprez]

47. We Agree~

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. The entire dynamic of the race just changed tonight.

The 'Miracle on Ice' has changed this primary season; John Kerry's nomination is NOT inevitable, any longer! :)

[mouse7]

41. Is "The Miracle on Ice" the name for tonight?

Hmmm... I don't know...

[PretzelWarrior]

13. I don't think this minor challenge hurts Kerry

He's been pouring money and effort into all the other "BIG" states in 2 weeks...and he will solidify his lead at that time. However, I am a big Edwards fan.

[The Blue Knight]

20. This race just got blown wide open.

[Cuban_Liberal]

25. Yep!

There is NOTHING 'ineviatble' about John Kerry's nomination! :)

[katieforeman]

17. Good analysis

You have to give Edwards crdit for sticking with his positive, optimisitc message. This is the message that will win us the general election.

p.s. We all owe a huge debt to Howard Dean. I'm sorry he wasn't treated more fairly in the media.

[w4rma]

19. Maybe. I know I'm leaning towards Sen. Edwards right now.

I'll bet there are alot of other Dean supporters who are also.

I trust Sen. Edwards on economic issues and trade.

[cally]

24. Maybe

This has changed the primaries. I'm done predicting this one since I've been consistently wrong. :shrug: I just want to defeat Captain Codpiece.

[Catherine Vincent]

27. At least we don't have to worry about Edwards not having enough experience

since the Accidental President barely had any.

[mlawson]

36. That is just somehting his opponents repeat over and over.

After all, 'experience' is subjective. I can make a case that almost ANYone has not enough experience, or that ANYone has enough. There is no objective standard for 'experience' for president. Through the ages, our presidents have had all diferent levels, and it has not correlated with their performance.

Lincoln, for example had virtually none, and he was a TRIAL LAWYER!! :o

[spooky3]

30. I hope you are right, but he has an uphill battle.

He needs those newspaper endorsements. He started emphasizing his poll results with independents tonight which is a good idea to start overcoming that perception of "electability" that currently benefits Kerry.

[Name removed]

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[Toucano]

35. What revelations?

Please elaborate.

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

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[eileen_d]

39. Like Clinton said, "I feel your pain."

:D

[w4rma]

40. The *non*-intern and her family said there was nothing to that. (n/t)

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

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[caledesi]

52. Because of the lying of OxyRush who keeps lying away.

[jadesfire]

49. He has only taken money from individuals

Not one dime of PAC money...over 19 years 600k happened to be from individuals who were lobbyists.

what has that money gotten the pharmacutical companies lobbyists who contributed?

a man who lead the fillibuster against the medicare bill promoting the drug companies

what has it gotten the oil and gas lobbyists who contributed?

a man who led the fight against drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge and has been working for YEARS on increasing CAFE standards (fuel efficiency standards).

Hmmmmmm....seems like those who contributed didn't really get their money's worth.

[caledesi]

51. What revelations? The "affair?" That was proven false. Smear job.

[caledesi]

44. This Dean supporter will switch to Edwards if Dean drops out. nt

[SangamonTaylor]

50. welcome aboard

I too was a Dean supporter until last December when I read John Edwards' book Four Trials. While I still believe that Dean has done amazing things for this party (and will continue into the future without a doubt), I decided a few months ago that Edwards' positive message of hope and optimism was the vision for me.

[On the Road]

53. I Didn't Post This as a New Edwards Supporter

I'm just calling them like I see them. We've seen dramatic swings in the polls and huge effects of early primaries on later results. I think a month from now we'll all be looking back on Wisconsin as a watershed.

[Cuban_Liberal]

54. We would welcome your support.

:)

[On the Road]

55. Thank You. I Would Definitely Support Edwards in the General

I think it would be great if he could work out a deal with Dean for support, organization, money, etc.

[Nashyra]

57. Edwards does not have enough experience

even if he has more than the idiot in office now. When they tout the idiot as a war time president Edwards will not have a leg to stand on. I think the Clark people will close rank and work for the candidate that Clark endorsed especially if he hits the campaign trail for Kerry.

[Cuban_Liberal]

58. I agree 100%

I would love to see an allaince of some kind. Dr. Dean has been my #2 choice for quite some time. I have nothing but the greatest respect for him and all he has done to make our party viable once again. :)

[ngGale]

56. Gosh! I do hope the Dean and Edwards supportors...

hang together. We need the Independent vote and there are many I hear will not vote for Kerry. The 25% youth vote for Dean is also needed. We all need Dean no matter what the DNC says.

[Nashyra]

59. All this "Edwards"

He would have lost if Clark had stayed in, he was polling far behind Clark. Good for him but these pundits act like he pulled off a coup. It would have been substancial if he would have done this with Clark still in the race, but nooooooooobody is going to mention that. That does make Edwards electable. Why was it such a surprise, Clark dropped out and he was the independent and swing voter candidate, so who were they going to vote for?

[OneBlueSky]

60. not a chance . . . and even if he did . . .

Bush would annihilate him in the GE . . . Bush would parlay an Edwards nomination into the youngster taking on the dad . . . and kill him on national security issues . . . if it's not Kerry or Clark, we will lose in November . . . and since Clark's dropped out, that leaves John Kerry . . .

[SangamonTaylor]

61. it's all about the jobs

Why let the other party force issues onto the americans.

Gore got it right when he said they are playing on our fears.

[DjTj]

62. Edwards Won't Back Down!

We're in for a real primary season now.

I can't believe Kerry was playing Tom Petty at his rally too. I heard it at a John Edwards rally and made a Wisconsin victory song:

[PurityOfEssence]

63. It's a Capraesque plot with a superstar for a leading man

Much as I don't much like Capra for being so damned saccharine, he really tapped into some visceral American themes, and this is one.

He's fought off serious hammering from a well-funded candidate who started off as a darling of the media (Clark) and has been star-crossed in many ways. Despite all that, he's forging ahead and making progress in the face of a crowded field.

Hopefully he'll get some serious press for this in the next few days, but a lot of the bandwidth is going to be taken up with speculation and rumination about Dean.

He's got "it", and much as one may like Kerry--and I do--he doesn't have presence like this guy. He's got joy and hopefulness and a solidity that stands the test of all scrutiny, and hopefully people will start to see it.