ABC just projected Wisconsin for Kerry...

[jab105]

Not a huge Kerry fan, only because I think he is the weakest in the general...

From what I have seen here, how in the world can they call it so quick, seems like a dead heat almost based on actual results!??!

[eileen_d]

1. CNN projects Kerry as winner (based on exit polling and returns)

Blitzer still saying "too close to call" though... and then he corrected himself. 23% reporting; Kerry and Edwards tied at 38%

[NashVegas]

2. CNN Has Edwards w/ More Votes

But Kerry as the winner. WTF?

[PretzelWarrior]

3. CNN and MSNBC calling it too.

looks like a very close race...if Dean drops out...then Edwards vs. Kerry could be interesting on the 2nd

[jab105]

4. But how can they call something that close so soon after the polls closed?

I dont understand how they can be sure...

Unless the story has already been written...ARGH!!!!!!

[Dookus]

6. it's done all the time

and CNN has become quite careful about doing it since the 2000 Florida fiasco.

Exit polling, reported numbers, and most importantly WHERE the unreported numbers are coming from all contribute. If the exit polling showed Edward's lead to be focused in precincts that have already reported, then they extrapolate that Kerry will win the remaining areas.

Believe it or not, they are very rarely wrong. In fact, they were RIGHT even in Florida - their exit polling showed gore winning. If the votes had been counted properly, and there were no illegal butterfly ballots, he would've won handily.

[SheilaT]

5. I'm not bothering to watch TV,

but the reason these things can be called as soon as the polls close, is that the networks have someone looking at the votes in "key precincts", ones which match the historic totals very closely. In the past, the networks tended to explain this. I don't think they have in several election cycles, so it all seems rather mysterious and perhaps not to be believed.

It's what led to the massive confusion in 2000. The "key precincts" in Florida were giving conflicting results, precisely because of that terrible so-called butterfly ballot, as well as the thousands of voters who were illegally denied the right to vote.

In the past I've read various things about polling and how remarkably accurate it can be. Unfortunately, I can neither provide on-line links nor remember any specific sources.