Stuart Rothenberg: In 2008 Election Cycle, How Bad Is Bad for Senate Republicans?

[babylonsister]

In 2008 Election Cycle, How Bad Is Bad for Senate Republicans?
By Stuart Rothenberg

While the 2008 elections are still more than a year away, Democrats appear well-positioned to score additional gains in the Senate. Many observers assume that those gains will be modest, but the party has a serious chance to replicate -- or even exceed -- its gains of 2006.

Recruitment and fundraising problems are only symptoms of a larger difficulty facing the GOP: the national political environment. With the Republican brand battered and voters still dissatisfied with the direction of the country and likely to respond to a message of change, many Republican incumbents have low personal and job ratings, an ominous sign of vulnerability.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee starts out with three migraines -- New Hampshire and open seats in Colorado and Virginia. By the end of the year, Democratic candidates could be running ahead in ballot tests in all three states.

Three other states where Republicans lead seem headed for tight races: Maine, Minnesota and Oregon. All three states lean Democratic in presidential races, and the GOP's weak national standing increases the risk for Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Gordon Smith (Ore.), each of whom would likely win re-election comfortably in a neutral political environment.

In addition, the uncertainty about Nebraska, with Sen. Chuck Hagel reported to announce his retirement today along with questions about New Mexico and Alaska, where incumbents long assumed to be safe have ethics clouds hanging over their heads, make a Democratic gain of five to seven seats a serious possibility next year.

more...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/09/in_2008_election_cycle_how_bad.html

[cali]

1. I agree with him.

The repukes are in deep trouble with Senate elections next year, and personally, I'm betting on 5 seats: VA,CO, NH, OR and MN.

[Netbeavis]

5. Safe bet. I have heard numbers a bit more optimistic than that

"Its the War, stupid" was the rationale. People want the war ended and see the stalling and cover by the GOP in the Senate for Bush. While Bush rides off in the sunset, those who laid cover for him pay the piper.


I'll settle for just 2 more seats so we can kick Lieberman (I)diot-Conn) to the curb and pull all of his committee assignments.

[Perry Logan]

2. The Republicans are the party of the aging white guy.

[saltpoint]

3. I'll take the encouragement from Rothenberg. If we're willing to

pile on the grassroots volunteering, I think a 5-7 pickup in the Senate is within reach. In some states easier than others, maybe, but well worth the doing.

Great post, ma'am. Thank you.

[TwilightGardener]

4. Don't want to get cocky and overconfident, but...hahahahahaha! (rubbing hands together evilly)