John Edwards WILL win the New Hampshire primary

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Momentum is clearly on Edwards side. Despite little press attention (and with most of that attention being negative), despite a "all Clobama, all the time" media narrative, despite raising less than two-fifths as much as Clobama and 1/17th what Obama has raised on Wall Street he has erased a once awesome 19 point deficit to tie Obama. This is only the beginning. I don't want to get into why others are falling (I have mentioned the "blank slate" theory numerous times in the past) but rather what will happen to Edwards going forward. When it comes down to it Democrats are going to want to nominate the candidate most likely to win. They will want a candidate with specific policy proposals. Rhetoric is nice but rhetoric has not extended health care to a single person, has not reached out and lifted a poor child in Los Angeles out of poverty; rhetoric does not give the 50 year old man in Cleveland whose job has just been outsourced any real hope, a wall of rhetoric does not protect lakes in New York from environmental degradation. Edwards will continue to rise in the national polls and he inevitably will receive more press coverage as that happens and the floodgates will open after he wins Iowa. It will essentially be a battle between Edwards and Hillary by then, with Edwards having the edge based on momentum. Twisting a popular Edwards phrase, isn't it time we asked for a president who asks for Americans to be patriotic about something other than war?

[Mythsaje]

1. K&R

Go Edwards!

[surfermaw]

2. I think you are right on

Edward is the man that can win in 2008

[EVDebs]

3. And the Iowa caucuses eom

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Not A Chance.

My neighbors to the north eschew the type of fella that pontificates about two Americas from his 28,000 square foot house, paid for in part by his salary from a predatory-lending hedge fund.

Not gonna happen - I'll put $10 on it.

[Bjorn Against]

7. I am not planning on voting for Edwards in the primary but...

I don't think it is right to criticize him in the way you did. Our system is set up in a way that it is very difficult for people who are not wealthy to compete, if we discourage the wealthy candidates from talking about poverty then NO ONE will talk about poverty. We need people like Edwards to bring this issue to the forefront because people who are in poverty have no power to bring it to the forefront themselves as there is no candidate in the race who is living in poverty. Edwards may be wealthy but he is at least trying to lend a hand to the people who don't have his privileges in life, that is a good thing and it is not right to attack him for bringing such an important issue to people's attention.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. I'm Just Sayin' It Like It Is - No Way NH Goes To Edwards. Never.

New Hampshirites are very sensitive to those types of things.

As to the implicit criticism - the predatory-lending hedge fund was the icing on the cake. Even if one were to excuse Edwards' house, what possible non-absurd excuse can he have for getting a huge salary, and investing millions of his own money, into a hedge fund that focuses on predatory lending. That's just wrong.

[CTyankee]

62. Look at what FDR did. And he was an aristocrat.

So a president who is himself rich CAN make a huge difference in the history and destiny of this country.

[Hieronymus]

14. I suppose you wouldn't have voted for FDR. Franklin Roosevelt lived in a

huge house and did so much for the poor.
Edwards will make a fine president. :bounce:

[MannyGoldstein]

55. How Huge Was FDR's House?

I've seen his summer home - and it was decidedly not huge.

Did FDR shack up with a predatory-lending hedge fund? I doubt it.

[Tesha]

61. Are you kidding?

Springwood:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_of_Franklin_D%2E_Roosevelt_National_Historic_Site



Tesha

[rndmprsn]

5. i'm hoping so...

[AtomicKitten]

6. Judges? Oh dear, they say no.

[Cameron27]

8. Your guy just changed his rhetoric from 04.

Where's his record on the environment, health care and poverty? The primary is filled with nothing but rhetoric, except of course, for their records.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. If you want to discuss longtime Democrat Edwards' record, and his small shift post a thread on it nt

[usregimechange]

10. yep

[TeamJordan23]

11. Hypocrisy strikes again, DMC now fully embraces polls after rejecting them as being too early before

Gotta love it.

[TSIAS]

13. The polls are tightening

I seem to see DMC talking about how Edwards is surging.

The most recent poll I could find (Rasmussen)

CLINTON 37%
OBAMA 22%
EDWARDS 14%
RICHARDSON 9 %
KUCINICH 4 %
DODD 2 %

Not that this is good news for Obama either, but a 23-point deficit is hardly good news for Edwards, especially considering there are a few Northeastern candidates who might improve their numbers.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/new_hampshire_primary_clinton_holds_solid_lead

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. He's improving nationally and in other states, like NV, OR, MS, AL, etc.

As to NH even there he is going up, although it is not very apparent yet since he once fell to the single digits there.

Edwards has--for the first time--tied Obama in a national poll, despite a fraction of the media coverage and money Obama has enjoyed. That is not news? Erasing a 19 point deficit to Obama is no big deal? Just 2-3 months ago people, especially Obama fans, were pronouncing the Edwards campaign dead...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. When did I reject polls? I've said the same thing for months. Ask the honest HRC fans...

...who I routinely discuss polls with...

[rinsd]

66. What? DMC has been posting poll numbers & debating their interpretation since he got here.

While we all are aware of how early it is and how things can change, I have never seen DMC reject a poll saying it was too early.

Please provide a link or take back what you said.

[Skink]

12. Electronic voting machines up there eh.

Dean is as well liked in N.H. as in Vt. and yet Kerry somehow eeked in on the primary.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

18. If there were 2 weeks between Iowa and NH Dean would have won NH imo nt

[saltpoint]

20. On a tangential note, if there'd been those extra 2 weeks between the two

contests, I imagine Joe Lieberman would have finished even further down in the pack than he did.

He invested a lot of cash and concentration and field people in NH and essentially was knocked out of the race there, even though he fought on a while longer.

And then just last year Ned Lamont proved to be the Connecticut Democrats' choice for their nominee.

Joe's reduced these days to showing up on the talk shows, blathering about victory in Baghdad and how maligned Bush's very worst appointments are.

On your same theme, there was talk in 1968 that had the election gone on another 48 or 72 hours or so, Hubert Humphrey would have been able to pull it out against Nixon.

( Relax, Senator Craig, if you're lurking on DU tonight -- that's just a figure of speech...)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

24. I agree on all counts but there was a silver lining to Holy Joe getting 10% in NH

Remember "I am in a three-way statistical dead heat for 3rd!"? A classic! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:rofl: @ the Craig reference

[saltpoint]

29. my god, I'd forgotten that string of Lieberman quotes from that time.

Maybe I'm TRYING to repress them!

It is a classic. That was about it for ol' Joe. The Joementum project never quite got off the tarmac.

He was a forgotten Democrat for a while there, and now he's just plain old forgotten.

[saltpoint]

19. Over late spring and summer, the Edwards campaign has been remarkably

sure-footed.

The folks over at daily kos love 'im to death, and he's won praise from some major high-ups like Krugman and Cuomo -- people who have been on the scene a while and have long ago mastered it.

It has been a long time since the presidential campaign in 1968 of Robert F. Kennedy, but the Edwards campaign has plainly done its homework on that fateful year and has respectfully picked up threads left largely abandoned when a bullet claimed Kennedy in a back lobby of the Ambassador Hotel.

That's mighty smart homework, in addition to the dutiful presentation of what public service ought to entail.

Edwards' numbers have rarely fallen into single digits; they've mostly held in the mid to upper teens; and there's no evidence that his message about poverty has been misinterpreted. Note also that he draws heavy fire from the conservative mainstream media, and the more conservative the media, the heavier the fire. That's a key gauge if you ask me.

It's a key gauge if you'd asked Robert Kennedy as well.

Agree with OP and others here and elsewhere that Edwards' numbers will rise. Biden and Richardson are
likely to have impressive autumns, I feel, and Dodd is yet to spend most of his money. This could get quite interesting quite soon. The Pukes are rightly tremblin' in their britches. We're fielding an all-star line-up and all they have is vampires, creeps, psychos, and back-alley thugs.

[Lucinda]

21. Ya know....every time I read

a thoughtful, intelligent post lately, and scroll back up to see who penned it, I find your name. :)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

22. OC is a DU treasure

:toast:

[saltpoint]

28. Hey there, draft_mario_cuomo. This is rapidly becoming a stellar

night for me. A lot of great folks on the boards tonight. Must be that lunar eclipse, maybe...?

Thank you, and as always, very good to see ya.

:toast: :thumbsup: :hi:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. No problem, I always enjoy your posts and today is a great day for JE fans!

:toast: :bounce:

[saltpoint]

39. Two close county operatives in Virginia I know are sticking with their

guy Obama. One in Ohio is more for Edwards now than she was before and two in Indiana are out in the streets singing his praises.

Biden is a visible and vivid second or third choice for these folks. They've been reliable gauges in past races, so I pay attention to them.

They believe Edwards and Biden are going to be in the ascent this fall. Mostly they're saying that a confluence of deteriorating economic conditions at home and the disastrous scene in Baghdad will be the precipitants and that John Edwards and Joe Biden will emerge as formidable voices.

I'm on board with that analysis. But as you and I have discussed before on DU, Bill Richardson has had himself a reasonably good summer with liberals and an even better summer among moderates, and his numbers keep coming up.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

52. Good news. I think JE, Biden, and Richardson will all rise

The question is how much? Can they rise enough?

[saltpoint]

23. Hey there, wlucinda. Very nice to bump into you tonight on DU.

I peeked at your profile and see your from Gatlinburg... is that in Sevier County?

If it isn't, it's not far away, is it?

'Had close friends down that way over a long period of time. Have a great deal of respect for it.

Sevierville is one of the best places I know in the country for taking a long walk of a summer's evening.

[Lucinda]

47. Yep...

We're spitting distance from the Great Smoky Mountain Nat'l Park in lovely Sevier County TN :D

I'm a transplanted California girl...but I'm addicted to the GSMNP. It's a great place to live when you can avoid the tourist traffic. Gotta love a place that's close enough to "nature" that we see black bears wandering through our garden... :)

Unfortunately, the park is taking a big hit from all the cars polluting the place...but they're working on it. At times it can be one loooong traffic jam from the interstate off ramp, all the way through Sevierville and Pigeon Forge, on it's way to us in Gatlinburg. Lot's of tourists.

I'm glad you made good memories here. It IS that kind of place. :)

[saltpoint]

48. Well, you take care of it for the rest of us who really like it.

Just some amazing days there in summertime and autumn.

And the thunderstorms. Holy moly. The Great Smokies can whip up a thunder storm like nobody's business when it wants to.

[Lucinda]

51. Storms are aswesome here - I have a special affinity for them

I was born during a tornado :)
I'm always happy during a good storm

[cobalt1999]

25. Edwards campaign has surprised me.

With a fraction of the resources, he's hanging on and doing well. I was ready to declare him dead a couple of times, but he's hanging in there.

He's not my first choice, but I can appreciate a good, well fought, and smart campaign.

[saltpoint]

30. Agree with you -- they don't have the cash of some of their rivals

but seem to be hanging in there.

I have a feeling David Bonior is a scrappy soul, and likely very good for that campaign team.

[Catchawave]

44. Reminds me of what Dean said in an interview about fundraising...

"If it were about how much money you raised, I'd be giving this interview from the Oval Office"

:hi: OC :toast:

[saltpoint]

45. Hey there, Catchawave, and howdy do to ya.

I think things are looking good for us blue teamers these days. Powell's long gone. Rumsfeld's been chased away. Bolton's bit the dust. And now Alberto Gonzales just slipped out the back door into the desert.

Ol' Dubya's gotta be feeling kinda lonesome, seems like. The old gang is gone. The old gang of liars and fixers and cheats and scoundrels and creeps and did I mention liars? All gone. Even Harriet Miers is gone with the wind. It's just no fun spendin' political capital when ain't nobody shows up.

Any rumors you hear about a Mark Warner senate candidacy, I'd love to hear 'em. How fine it would be to grab that seat back for our side, and Mark Warner's a fine soul. I think he'd do Virginians proud.

[Catchawave]

56. I think Warner wants to be Governor again.....

rumors have it, maybe George Allen too. The buzz on the Virginia blogs is pretty exciting right now ... Allen may even try for the Senate again...buzz, buzz :silly:

Then we have Tim Kaine to throw into the mix....the timing for 2008 is perfect for the end of his Gov term limit here.

:hi:

[saltpoint]

73. George Allen again? Good god say it ain't so.

I thought we were done with that puke.

[WCGreen]

26. Hey, I'm a fifty year old living in the cleveland area...

I loves Big Bad John...

He is the Man With the Plan...

[zulchzulu]

27. Just a tip...

Paragraph breaks are your friend.

It's hard to read your OP. It looks like one long run-on sentence. It looks like something Ted Kazinsky would do....

[AtomicKitten]

32. yahtzee

:hi:

[William769]

31. It's a very good possibility.

One thing is for sure, Obama will be 4th or 5th place finish.

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[saltpoint]

34. Larry Craig has just been arrested this very summer for allegedly

solilciting an undercover cop in a men's room stall inbetween sessions in which he voted for the Defense of Marriage Act and any number of other liberty-denying legislation, pretending at once to be Mr. Family Values in the public eye and all the while sneaking around for some wiener on the weekends, and you call John Edwards a hyprocrite?

Jesus.

[TeamJordan23]

35. Mr. Hypocrite is not meant to be John Edwards =). nm

[saltpoint]

36. That makes it worse. We have some good issues to discuss this cycle

and you have a damn good mind.

Don't waste it on attacking other candidates' supporters when the outcome of those issues will impact on all of us.

We have some total creeps and jerks in the Republican Party who need their butts kicked. Let's concentrate on them.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

38. He is the 3rd or 4th Obama fan who has smeared me as a liar, hypocrite, etc. today

It seems that is today's (coordinated) meme. When asked to provide evidence to back up their smears they grow silent.

TJ is upset that the "lowly also-ran Edwards" caught the "Obama juggernaut"...

[TeamJordan23]

40. No, what's funny is that all your attacks on Obama and unity came right back in your face.

It's funny how much importance you are paying into one daily poll. I guess just last Friday, Obama was up by 11 over Edwards in the same poll. So maybe under your facts, Edwards will be up by 11 over Obama next week.

So which GOP members are okay with you on Edwards' cabinet?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

41. See, there they go again

What exactly did I say about unity? Thanks in advance.

I have said the same thing about polls from the beginning. Ask the HRC supporters who I have discussed polls with regularly since I joined DU. If you are going to smear someone know their actual position on an issue.

==just last Friday, Obama was up by 11 over Edwards in the same poll.==

He was once at 32% (1st, +2) in that poll and is now at 18%, (1 point from falling to 3rd place, -22). What can you conclude from that? That is the real value of polls, trends (which is why I was the first to begin the practice of putting a candidate's gain/loss from the last poll in parentheses when posting a poll). As I've said several times, it is absurd that Edwards tying Obama for the first time in any poll would be ignored. It is huge news. It should have never happened if the claims we heard from certain Obama fans in June were correct--both on Edwards and on the Obama juggernaut.

[TeamJordan23]

43. Oh DMC, your whole argument runs against what you have been preaching all day

You criticized Obama with a bombarment of threads about him willing to work with Repubs. You even created a thread with GOP Anti-Democratic You Tube videos, and asked if this is the unity that Obama was talking about. You also attacked his DNC speech about two Americas.

And now it is your candidate is going to have GOP cabinet members, you look and are a hypocrite. Why don't u attack Edwards about trying to unify the country.

Also, your original arguments about polls run against what you have been preaching today. You know this race will easily change based on the results from Iowa, NH, and S. Carolina. All three candidates are competitive there. Edwards position is strong in Iowa, but not as strong in NH and S. Carolina. You don't think if any of the candidated wins all three (or maybe if 2 of the three), its not gonna affect the race for Super Tuesday?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

46. Simple question: what exactly did I say about "unity"?

The reason you are dodging that question is because I have been perfectly consistent on the issue. Who is against unity? Everyone favors reasonable steps to help decrease partisan division in the country so long as progressive principles are not sacrificed on the altar of consensus/"unity".

My original argument on polls is the same as it was in March. I don't shift my views on polls based on how my candidate is doing like some others.

As I have always said, Iowa will influence Nevada and NH. The combo of IA/NV will influence NH. IA/NV/NH will in turn influence SC and Florida, assuming Florida is allowed to vote. The reason the national polls matter--as I have always said--is they show trends. That is all they are good for. Early state polls are more valuable than them at this point. The reason Edwards catching Obama in the national polls matter is it will result in more media coverage for Obama. That naturally will help him further rise in the national polls. As to Obama, what is happening to him is what I predicted and what will happen to F. Thompson. Obama is a good example of what you can see if you look at trends in national polls.

Let's see what happens in Iowa first. If a candidate finishes 3rd or 4th in Iowa and follows that up with a similar finish in NV he will be toast by NH. That is the inconvenient truth Obama fans have ignored ever since Obama fell to 3rd in Iowa. Obama is more likely to finish 4th in Iowa than he is to win Iowa. In Nevada he has stalled while Edwards and Richardson are gaining. If that continues he will soon be in 4th there. What do you think will happen if he enters NH with a 3rd and 4th or a pair of 4ths?

[TeamJordan23]

49. Haha. Another misleading (fabricated lie?) statement by DMC

Before you talk about Obama placing 4th in Iowa, maybe you should check out last week's released Iowa poll: http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_082307.htm

Where it is Edwards 23%, Obama 22%, Hillary 21%. All three within MOE of being in first.

Or do you simply ignore polls that you don't like and favor the ONE that you can create your talking point with.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

50. No, it is called a reality you ignore. I do not cherry pick polls like some

The two polls prior to that one you, and others, cherry picked had him at 19% and 18%. In one Edwards lead and in the other Clinton led but in each case the leader was at 30%, so BO trailed by double digits in both. You want to see how cherry picking works? The poll prior to the last three was the ABC one that had Obama ahead by 1 point. If you go back more the three polls before that one had Obama at 15%, 16%, and 13%.

Here is an average of recent polls:



As you can see he is closer to 4th than he is to 1st.

For the last time, if you are going to continue to violate DU rules and smear me with lies present evidence to support your smears...

You should understand all this. You surely dismiss Edwards tying Obama in the Rass' poll and are waiting to see A) if that holds B) if other polls show the same thing.

Funny how the polls were all accurate in the spring during the halycon days when Obama was fighting for the lead nationally--even leading in one Gallup and one Rass (in each case a debate followed immediately after the poll and Obama lost his lead in a big swing after the debate...), a solid 2nd in Iowa (ahead of HRC), contending strongly in NH, etc...

[TeamJordan23]

53. I'm not sure if you had any math lessons in your 'education'. But let me give it a try

These are all the recent Iowa polls from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

These are the polls from July AND August

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Spread
RCP Average 07/23 - 08/19 - 25.4 24.6 19.9 11.6 Clinton +0.8
Strategic Vision (R) 08/17 - 08/19 600 LV 21 23 22 14 Edwards +1.0
Zogby 08/17 - 08/18 503 LV 30 23 19 10 Clinton +7.0
Univ. of Iowa 07/29 - 08/05 425 LV 27 22 22 9 Clinton +5.0
Hart Research (D) 08/02 - 08/03 509 LV 22 30 18 13 Edwards +8.0
ABC News/Wash Post 07/26 - 07/31 500 LV 26 26 27 11 Obama +1.0
American Res. Group 07/26 - 07/30 600 LV 30 21 15 13 Clinton +9.0
Research 2000 07/23 - 07/25 400 LV 22 27 16 11 Edwards +5.0

So based, on July/August polls, on the July/August averages, It is Clinton 25.4, Edwards 24.6, Obama 19.9, and Richardson 11.6. Now Obama is 8.3 points from 4th place. And he is only 5.5 points from 1st place. SO I GUESS YOU WERE MISLEADING US THERE.

Now, Let's move to only polls that were conducted ONLY IN August (or included part of August). These are listed below:
Strategic Vision (R) 08/17 - 08/19 600 LV 21 23 22 14 Edwards +1.0
Zogby 08/17 - 08/18 503 LV 30 23 19 10 Clinton +7.0
Univ. of Iowa 07/29 - 08/05 425 LV 27 22 22 9 Clinton +5.0
Hart Research (D) 08/02 - 08/03 509 LV 22 30 18 13 Edwards +8.0

Now, if you take the average of these August polls (which can be done on Excel), you get:
Hillary 25.00
Edwards 24.50
Obama 20.25
Richarson 11.50

Now, using simple math; we find that Obama is 8.75 points ahead of Richardson for 4th. And Obama is 4.75 points away from Hillary for 1st. Was someone, again, being misleading? In reality, Obama's poll numbers in Iowa have gone up in August since July.

Main point from the lesson: It is very important to use real numbers when doing an analysis, not just picture graphs.

Thanks for your time. Hope you learned something.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

57. You're a message board poster cherry picking numbers; Pollster.com is a respected pollling site

They have a consistent methodology (I think it is a 6 poll average) for coming up with their averages. They do not cherry pick polls. Aren't you one of those people who think CNN's polls are rigged against Obama even though they once had Obama within 4 points of Clinton back during the halcyon days?

[TeamJordan23]

64. LOL. wow, are you serious??? Math lesson #2, here we go.

Man, I hope you are not really not this careless.

Go to your website (looks very credible, especially the blogspot where the graph is from), http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php, and look at the Iowa polls from July and August. Look very closely and you will see that Pollster has 6 polls from July/August.

And if you go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html , you can see they use 7 polls from July/August. I guess they have more polls (many which are identical to the ones displayed on realclearpolitics) because they like to cherry-pick??? LOL. Come on man, be honest at least.

And another math lesson, if you look at their graph, you see their charts include all Iowa polls including a June 2006 poll. If you say that they get their average numbers by looking at the last 6 polls, why does Al Gore have 7%?

If you actually, look at the other chart:

You can see how they come up with their 'trend' numbers. Which is actually, cherry picking many different polls, INCLUDING POLLS FROM 2006!!! They actually use 3-4 polls from 2006 for Hillary and Edwards (I bet those are real accurate).

DMC, what I suggest you do before start misleading people, is maybe do some simple math on your computer. Excel is great for it. You can copy and paste the data into Excel and limit your analysis to the past 2-3 months. I don't think numbers from 2006 are that accurate. And notice, how this person on the blogspot (did I mention, how credible that blog looks over realclearpolitics.com) uses the word 'trend' not average. Thus, I think after taking the averages, this person uses a predictor to nudge numbers slightly up and down. A real statistician would use average.

[saltpoint]

42. Yoo hoo . . . I was proposing we align talents and boot the Republicans out

of office.

Across the entire ballot.

You in or not?

[Apollo11]

54. Maybe Al Gore will endorse Edwards?

It's just a hunch I have, that if Al Gore does not change his mind and jump into the race for 2008, then he might endorse John Edwards for President.

Here's what Al Gore said to Larry King on CNN back in May:

GORE on HILLARY
"She is running a very forceful campaign. She has earned the strong support of her constituents in New York."

GORE on OBAMA
"He is also running a very strong campaign. I think that he is appealing to a lot of people who like the sense that he's talking about issues in a fresh way. And, you know, he has a lot of support."

GORE on EDWARDS
"Likewise, running a strong campaign. Put out a lot of very thoughtful policy statements and positions. I think you can see the strength that he's gained from having been around the track last time."

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0705/22/lkl.01.html

Of the candidates currently in the race, I like Edwards the best.

Part of me wishes Al Gore or Wes Clark could be the nominee.

On the other hand, Wes Clark could serve as Secretary of State or Sec. of Defense.

I know there is a 10-year rule, but Congress can over-ride it.

:kick:

[Apollo11]

63. Plus there is the LCV

The League of Conservation Voters, which has not yet endorsed a candidate for president, described Edwards' plan as the "most comprehensive global warming plan of any presidential candidate to date."

"Senator Edwards' plan demonstrates that he understands the magnitude of the challenge before us and the need for bold leadership to meet it," LCV President Gene Karpinski said.

http://johnedwards.com/issues/energy/

[wyldwolf]

58. I think he wins Iowa and comes in second in NH

[truebrit71]

59. If he wins Iowa he'll win NH too....

...or be a very, VERY close second....

[wyldwolf]

65. he'll be a close second

Edwards wins Iowa - Clinton in second (the Clinton team is already preparing for this as indicated by their actions in California)
Clinton wins NH - Edwards in second.

This makes Clinton and Edwards the #1 and #2 candidates in the race.

[PresidentObama]

72. We'll see what happens. I prefer Edwards, but wouldn't be disappointed if Hillary wins it.

The nomination that is ;)

[PresidentObama]

69. I think he has the ability to win NH, but yes....I think he for sure wins Iowa.

At this point, Iowa is his to lose.

[SoxFan]

60. Not gonna happen

Edwards is a very poor fit for the NH electorate. His class-based populism doesn't resonate in a state that is heavily suburban and middle-class. His protectionist rhetoric on trade doesn't cut it in a state where the economy is based not on heavy manufacturing, but on high tech and knowledge-intensive industries.

Heck, Edwards 2004 state campaign chairman just held a house party for Bill Richardson last weekend. That should tell you something.

[Ninga]

67. Well I hope that Edwards will court NH in such a way, that the good folks there will

understand that such states as Ohio and Michigan are bleeding from unemployment.

I can not for the life of me, believe that the mindset in NH is isolationist, one for all as long as it's NH.

Surely in NH,there must be some of the heavily suburban and middle-class who are struggling? Surely there must be some in NH who don't have health care and are draining dollars from their savings to stay afloat?

My perspective is a global one, and I have observed John Edwards as he has grown, listened and adjusted his course....all positive qualities for the kind of leadership we need at the top.

I can picture him sitting at the head of the large oval conference table, shirt sleves rolled up, pensively poised, listening. listening, listening to those who might bring wisdom to the table.

John will bring a long sought after, and much needed sensitive and worldly perspective to the WH and to the good citizens of this country.

He has after all, worked in mines and in the court room and has had real life jobs. This, believe it or not, is important.

[Vinca]

68. As a person in New Hampshire, Edwards seems to be liked well enough,

but Obama is the one causing excitement. I'd be surprised if Edwards won New Hampshire, but it's anyone's guess with the vote so split. I know I'm voting for Kucinich and I never answer the phone for pollsters (and they call nearly every night).

[Ninga]

70. Dennis Kucinich is a wonderful person, very focused and driven. In his long

political career, he has yet to build consensus and support for his initiatives with his peers, this is because he is a bit autocratic and has a hard time playing well with others.

I know him personally, and see him more as a prophet rather than a leader.

Yes, Obama does cause excitment, and it's well deserved. He is really special.

This is the most interesting, and exciting political primary cycle I have ever witnessed, and I have been voting since 1960 and have seen a lot.

[Vinca]

71. I have yet to meet Dennis, but he sounds very down to earth.

A guy I met at a Kerry rally way back when talked about sitting cross legged on the floor of a private home talking issues with Kucinich. I truly think he is the only candidate who really "gets it."