"With Obama or Edwards in the mix, the range of possible outcomes is much wider."
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Clinton Remains Frontrunner Despite Questions About ElectabilityMonday, August 27, 2007
As a result, Clinton’s numbers have softened a bit over the past couple of weeks (review week-by-week numbers). But, she retains a solid lead in national polling. She also leads in the key primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. The basic question about the Democratic nomination process remains unchanged. Can Obama or Edwards provide a convincing rationale for nominating someone other than Clinton? If so, they will have to make that case before the Iowa caucus and hope that a strong performance in the initial voter event of Election 2008 will cause Democrats to reconsider their support for the frontrunner.
In making that case, everyone will talk a lot about electability, a topic with no clear answers.
The only thing we know for certain is that opinions are far more solidly established for Clinton than anyone else in the race. That means Clinton’s numbers will be less volatile going forward. Whether that is a plus or a minus depends upon the nature of the volatility.
An Obama or Edwards supporter would quickly point out that their candidates have more upside potential and less entrenched opposition. That’s true. A Clinton fan might point out that voter views of either Obama or Edwards could also head in the opposite direction. That’s also true.
What that means is that an election with Clinton involved would be more predictable.
Barring a total collapse of the GOP candidate, it is most likely that her vote total would be in the upper 40% range. That’s high enough for a narrow victory or a close defeat.With Obama or Edwards in the mix, the range of possible outcomes is much wider.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary