John Edwards will NOT win the New Hampshire primary

[rhombus]

This from a long-time party operative in Concord, NH. He says Edwards has tacked too far to the left and his rhetoric has permanently turned off many independents in NH, a must win demographic for any primary winner in the Granite state.

At this point, he says the NH primary is essentially a battle between Hillary and Obama, with Hillary having a slight edge.

[Adelante]

1. I think that is very true at this moment

But I also think Edwards is poised to tack to the right again now that he's heading back into the South, so things may change a bit yet by the time of NH.

[More Than A Feeling]

2. Who has this party operative endorsed, if anyone? n/t

[rhombus]

7. He worked on Carol Shea Porter's successful campaign

At this point, he says he's leaning towards Richardson, but said essentially that unless Richardson wins the Iowa caucus, the chances of him winning the NH primary are next to impossible.

[saltpoint]

19. I'm not quarreling with your friend, but what if Richardson wins in Nevada,

a few days out of New Hampshire?

That's just one example.

Joe Lieberman skipped Iowa in 04, thinking that Dean would energize the left and that Gephardt would take the middle. His private polling must have given him reliable numbers, because the general polling just a bit later showed the same trends.

The trends were wrong. Rather, they were right when they were snapshotted by the polls but proved unreliable as a long-term read of voters' preferences and concerns.

Dean and Gephardt, both initially within striking distance of an Iowa victory, finished third and 4th. Kerry and Edwards surged from almost nowhere with grim prospects and no constituency and finished first and second.

Lieberman thought, ok, to hell with it, let's show 'em how it's done here in New England. The New Hampshire voters showed Joe how they do it, and they didn't pick him for first. Foolishly, Lieberman remained in the race but with each passing hour the rationale for his candidacy drained away. "Joementum" just didn't quite materialize as an actual force and eventually he took his ball and bat and stomped home, bitterly blaming every other Democrat on earth for his losses.

Point being, the polls in NH right now favor Sens. Obama and Clinton; that's not in dispute. But in a dynamic season like this one, the thing has barely begun. It gets real gamey by November or so. That's when we'll see the serious money spent. And that's when the polls begin to shift. The snowflakes start to fall and the polling begins to fluctuate.

[book_worm]

3. So a party operative has decided the issue, isn't that special?

I'll say this if Edwards wins Iowa (and that is a very real possibility) he can have pretty good momentum going into NH, just as Kerry did in '04.

[zulchzulu]

11. That is correct... sort of...

If Edwards does well in Iowa (which will probably be January 14th), he could get some momentum in New Hampshire.

Although now with Michigan on January 15th possibly getting sandwiched in between Iowa and New Hampshire, New Hampshire might move to January 8th.

Which in that case, if Edwards loses New Hampshire, Iowa might not be so good... it is a train wreck in the primary schedule this year...

[Yukari Yakumo]

30. Problem with that though is...

Even if Edwards wins Iowa, he may not win it decisively. Without a decisive win in Iowa, he won't get the momentum boost he has been banking on.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Can I borrow this guy's crystal ball

for my next purchase of a Powerball ticket? I'm sure he's 100% correct about his predictions. In fact, since he has already called the outcome, why bother to have a primary at all?

[saltpoint]

5. I wouldn't count anyone out just this early. We aren't even to Labor Day yet.

New Hampshire has always packed a surprise or two for both our side and the Pukes. Bob Dole was defeated there by Pat Buchanan. Gary Hart upset party-favorite Walt Mondale.

[Botany]

6. Please

It is still August and at this time in '03 it was Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephard, and Howard Dean ....

Lots of money and press is being spent to tell us that Edwards has no chance.

[AtomicKitten]

8. I'm not so sure.

I have to give him snaps for giving it all he's got. He's done quite well.

But both Obama and especially Hill are running the general now. I think the charge of flip-flopping is something they don't want to provide any ammunition for in the general. But Edwards is campaigning in the more traditional way of left in the primary, to the center in the general.

It's all a crapshoot. We shall see. I wouldn't count him out.

[saracat]

9. Whoopie! How silly! And we should believe this why??

[TheFarseer]

10. That is probaly true

although I think the plan is to win Iowa, and then slug it out in SC, NV and if he can take those, then he will probably be in real good shape.

[tkmorris]

12. That's pretty anecdotal

I sincerely hope it turns out not to be true.

[Jim Sagle]

13. DLC hogwash!

[Clark2008]

36. Uhh... Edwards is DLC.

At least he was the whole time he was a Senator.

Now, of course, he's trying to be Dean resurrected. :rofl: Which is hilarious.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

38. Edwards, like Dean, once was DLC and no longer is

What is so odd about a Democrat shifting a little to the left? Dean did it. Gore did it. Numerous others did. Others have shifted to the right. Republicans? Some have shifted to the left, others to the right. Name one major politician who has never changed his/her mind on an issue. Anyway, the ones you need to really worry about are those who make wholesale changes, i.e. change parties in 1-2 years just in time to run for president.

[saltpoint]

14. A daily kos posting offers a condensed summary of the polling of Democratic

presidential candidates from August 2003 into the final weeks prior to the Iowa caucuses:

Excerpts from that post follow:
_ _ _ _ _
Lets take a look at the Des Moines Register, August 2003 poll during the 2004 Presidential campaign:

The leader then in the race was Howard Dean, with 23%

Next was Dick Gephardt with 21%

Then John Kerry, who would eventually win, with 14%

Joe Lieberman believe it or not, was leading John Edwards with 10%

John Edwards had 5% and was just polling 1 point higher than Dennis Kucinich who had 4%

By the November 2003 poll, little had really changed. Except Dick Gephardt had opened up a lead over Howard Dean. Gephardt had 27% and Dean had 20%. John Kerry had 15% and Edwards still had 5%

Then right before the caucuses, the people of Iowa (the working class folks, not the political wonks) started to actually pay attention to the campaigns and the candidates. They started to think critically about who could actually win the Presidency.

By the last poll taken just before the caucuses, Kerry was leading with 26% and Edwards was coming in second with 23%. This final poll nearly mirrored the final caucus results.

After Kerry won the Iowa caucuses, his poll numbers nationally shot up like a rocket (awesome graph) launching him to the Democratic nomination. Political strategists call this the Iowa sling-shot. After winning Iowa, Kerry never gave up the lead again. Meanwhile, Howard Dean's disappointing third place finish virtually ended his campaign.
_ _ _ _ _

A lot can happen to a political lead in a dynamic landscape of highstakes fundraising and investments by Fate and the muses. Dick Gephardt, riding high with a leading percentage high enough to be a winning percentage, dropped precipitously and finished the night of the caucuses being buried alive, at 11%. Tall guy, affable, a neighbor, a previous caucus victor, extensive name rec and seemingly tailor-made for the Hawkeye State, and he got killed. His campaign announced his withdrawal before 11:30 p.m. CST that night.

[zulchzulu]

15. Keeping it real, Crusoe... keeping it real...

:thumbsup:

[saltpoint]

17. Hey there zulchzulu. Polls can make exciting snapshots but a lot of the

heart-and-soul work is done in godforsaken rented offices with a couple phone lines, a Pepsi machine, and a pile of envelopes that need stuffing.

Also on city squares in certain midwestern capitals.

Still thinking about your contribution to the bigger picture of electoral democracy and the beautifully-written accounts you bring of them to DU's boards.

:toast:

[Yukari Yakumo]

31. '04 =/= '08, 'nuff said {nt}

[saltpoint]

35. A notion of James Bond and the other double-0s came to mind, reading

your one-line subject post.

The audience knows Bond, of course. We don't know the names of all the other double 0s, or their rank or their contributions, or their individual talents and proclivities.

One could be like John Edwards. One could be like Olympia Snowe. One could be like Burt Bacharach.

Who knows?

[rwheeler31]

16. This is one opinion and I and i hope it is very wrong.

[slick8790]

18. If the primary was held now, yeah.

And he still probably won't win in most cases, and I'm an Edwards supporter. Although if he wins Iowa, that tosses everything up and then it's anyone's game. Personally I think he's not gonna pull it out, but if he wins iowa like i think he will, it might not matter.

[SoxFan]

20. A fair assesment

Edwards has laid the old school liberal rhetoric on very thick, and while this might gain him converts in some circles, it's a recipe for disaster in New Hampshire. Look at the state's track record. Candidates with a big-government, protectionist, quasi Great Society platform generally get their butts kicked in NH. It's a state with a largely suburban electorate, so reformist progressives (Hart, Tsongas, Carter) outpoll labor Dems (Mondale, Harkin, Kennedy).

[saltpoint]

21. For those drawn to archival primary outcomes in New Hampshire, here's a

handy website:

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070503/NEWS0803/70503008

--which offers party primary outcomes from 1952 onward.

If you're the sort of person who like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing you'll like.

I'm a politics junky, so it's a big hit for me.

[d_fender]

22. Smile ..................

Go Hillary!:toast:

[saltpoint]

23. Senator Obama appears to have broad support among New Hampshire

voters at the moment.

http://nh2008.blogspot.com/2007/07/arg-obama-clinton-tied-rudy-leads.html


The August numbers give her a wider lead, especially among women voters and likely women voters, but Obama's groundwork there -- and formidable polling numbers -- indicate that Senator Clinton will have some work to do this fall up that way.

[JDPriestly]

24. It's a long, long time . . . . . until the primaries.

Edwards is hitting the corruption issue really hard, and that is likely to be a huge issue this fall. Please see the Rolling Stone article on Iraq this month and Coyote's post below:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1669387

[FrenchieCat]

25. He might "win" it now.....cause he's gonna "appoint" members of the other party

to his cabinet. He's already made the list of those, although he has to keep it mum so as not to hurt the feeling of those not picked.

Made the announcement just today. This should help since he made the statement in New Hampshire....NO? :shrug:

[Cameron27]

26. Finger to the wind and tackin' to the right?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

40. Only if you think Bush somehow tacked to the left by appointing a Democrat to his cabinet nt

[Cameron27]

42. Nope, I never said that,

but Edwards move to the left was a pretty quick transformation, so I wouldn't rule out a move to the center or to the right of those positions if it gets him NH votes.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

39. Maybe he will appoint a self-proclaimed "non-partisan" nt

[Colobo]

27. Don't count out John Edwards.

He's a good man and his message is powerful and on point.

[alteredstate]

29. I agree. n/t

[mnhtnbb]

28. Yeah, NH, why don't you nominate another loser?

[calteacherguy]

32. Yeah, I could see how he'd be turning off independents with all the hypocrisy.

Independents are particularly sensitive to that most undesirable trait of so many of our professional politicians.

[trueblue2007]

33. The "LONG TIME PARTY OPERATIVE" is an idiot

Edwards is WONDERFUL. The long time operative is ONE brick short of a load!

[rufus dog]

34. far too early to make that comment.

I hate to say it, but if the shit hits the fan, economically, John is sitting in a pretty good spot. (not that I am against John, but I am not cheering for a meltdown!)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. It seems pent up Obama fan hostility against Edwards has come gushing out today

Anything happen today to cause this eruption? ;)

[fujiyama]

41. How is Edwards' rhetoric that far left?

He's mentioning better access to healthcare, combating poverty, withdrawing troops from Iraq, and the corrupting effects of lobbyists.

As far as I know, NH has uninsured, working class people that have sons and daughters serving in the military, who are also concerned about the corruption of politicians in DC. And I think independents also appreciate one thing a certain front runner doesn't seem to have - genuine sincerity and the ability to recognize when they've made a terrible mistake.

Edwards may very well be done. He certainly has a tough road ahead, but as far as I'm concerned this operative's opinion is just more mindless pontificating.

[PresidentObama]

43. Am I supposed to believe this?

I don't want to question the OPer's credibility, but because your friend says this...it makes it true?

I don't think so. Let's see what happens when Edwards wins Iowa :P