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going back to his days on the county council. He used to draw a lot of support from folks who normally voted Democratic, largely because he provides very good constituent services and because of his reputation as a moderate. However, once he became part of the repub leadership, he started losing support. His actions during the Terry Schiavo thing and his support for the war has caused a number of former supporters to give up on him. Re-destricting has helped him, but even so, he had to work harder than he ever has to win reelection against a virtual unknown, political novice in 2006. Personally, he's a decent guy, but he's made his bed and now he's finding a bit lumpy to sleep in.
As for his position on the war, I find it somewhat incomprehensible. He touts the fact that he opposed the surge, presumably as a way of trying to win back some support from those who oppose the war. But he also opposed setting a timetable, which leaves him in the position of supporting doing nothing to change the situation in either direction. Which is ridiculous.
He has ambitions to succeed Warner as senator (with his wife taking his spot in COngress), and he's as knowledgable about voting patterns, etc. as anyone, but he's going to have a tough time figuring out how to garner support from the convservative parts of the state without completely alienating his northern virginia base. I can see him trying to paint himself as having the same positions as Jim Webb, but he's going to have to speak out more forcefully against the war to make that stick.
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