Could Edwards/Dean keep Kerry from a majority of delegates?

[skjpm]

If they both stay in the race, could they rack up enough delegates between them to prevent Kerry from clinching the nomination? Maybe just one of them could do it. I don't want Kerry to be the nominee--I don't have to. I can be a good Democrat and not like Kerry. I think this might be a good strategy to keep him from being the nominee. I honestly think that by the time we get to the convention, if not Super Tuesday, the bloom will be off the Kerry rose, and we will be glad for a brokered convention.

[MurikanDemocrat]

1. No

[skjpm]

2. Kerry hasn't won a majority in any state yet

Or, at least, not a big majority. Couldn't they keep him from getting the required number?

[SadEagle]

3. He's won a majority of delegates in most states

Remember, that folks that get below 15% don't get delegates, so someone with 50% of the vote will near certainly get /more/ than 50% of delegates. So theoretically, yes, but it's not likely to happen unless Kerry stumbles.

[MurikanDemocrat]

5. I'm being honest with you

Unless there is some tragic accident that takes Kerry out of the race, there is no realistic scenario that any of the other candidates can overtake him. Not a realistic chance.

You asked.

Kerry has overwhelming leads in polls in most other states.

Dean's campaign is likely to go under some kind of restructuring after WI. There's not enough money to mount a challenge in remaining states. Many staff members are packing their bags and not coming back after WI. The campaign chairman has been fired. (Rightfully so). The writing is on the wall there. Although, Dean could opt to stay in and participate in the process in the same way that Kucinich and Sharpton do. I hope he does.

Edwards is also under some pressure to drop out. It's hard to say what he will do, but he, like Dean, is getting no more than 1/5 of the votes that Kerry is, with no evidence that this will change. Not enough to change the outcome.

I know it causes distress for some people. But it is true, that barring tragic circumstances, Kerry is going to be the nominee.

[skjpm]

7. Not overtake him, just keep him from getting a majority of delegates.

Even if Kerry wins every state, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily win over half of the delegates. Thus, if Dean and Edwards can improve the margins, they can take us to a brokered convention.

[DjTj]

8. They need to keep Kerry under 40%

...we'll see how they do tomorrow.

[MurikanDemocrat]

9. I don't think so

Kerry has over 50% in many states, and whatever Dean's status is going to be after WI, he's not financially able to compete. His margins are not going to improve, they are going to decline. (Just being realistic)

Some of that support is going to go to Kerry. That puts Kerry even further over 50%. Some will go to Edwards. But Edwards is under pressure to pull out too. That might not sound fair, but that's politics, and that's how it's coming down.

I don't see a realistic chance for a brokered convention. Some may make a case for one, but I don't think it's realistic.

Do this. Wait until after the WI results tomorrow. Give it a couple days for things to shake out. And see where things stand. If either Edwards or Dean are going to make any major changes or decisions before Super Tuesday, I think it will happen this week, after the WI primary.

[bornskeptic]

10. It's not going to happen,

but if it did, with Kerry winning 40 or so states and having the nomination given to someone else, it would cause the Democratic Party to be torn apart in a way that would make '68 look like nothing. Any candidate chosen in that manner would not have a chance in hell of winning the General Election.

[boxster]

11. Wrong.

Kerry won a majority in:

DE
MO
ND
MI
VA
NV

Considering how many people are/were in this race, a majority is a seriously strong showing.

[shivaji]

4. I will be real happy if Dean or Edwards gets the nod.

[skjpm]

6. At least this way won't require a scandal

I think Kerry will keep winning, but by smaller margins. Thus, I'm not sure that even by the time Super Tuesday rolls around, he'll be that far ahead in delegates. I think both Dean and Edwards should stay until the end picking up as many delegates as they can and then try to win a brokered convention.

[Padraig18]

12. 'Buyer's remorse'.

This may well set in for Sen. Kerry and, in turn, the remaining candidates may well be able to deny him 50% of the delegates needed. This is, of course, an 'iffy' thing.

[mmonk]

13. Possible

if he is slowed down substantially enough. But I don't think so. As it goes further and further, as long as he continues winning, at some point, the majorities should widen. Sorry to disappoint any with stating it as I see it. A convention of contentiousness will not serve us well in my estimation.

[w4rma]

14. If it was brokered in this manner Sen. Kerry would likely be the nominee.

because he would have the most claim to the position due to his delegate advantage.

Besides, I think brokering a convention is a Republican Party wet-dream no matter who the nominee is.

[maddezmom]

15. possible

but it's going to take a lot of money to continue to make inroads.

[Shadoobie]

16. According to CNN..

There are 4321 total delegates comprised of 801 "superdelegates" and 3520 primary/caucus delegates. Of the 3520, the total delegate count so far is:

Kerry 580
Dean 191
Edwards 167
Clark 57
Sharpton 16
Kucinich 2
Total 1013

If ther percentages, remain the same the final count for these delegates should look like:

Kerry 2015
Dean 664
Edwards 580
Clark 198
Sharpton 56
Kucinich 7
Total 3520

I left in clark since he received a decent number of delegates. The question is where his delegates will go. As he has endorsed Kerry, Kerry may end up with his delegates bringing Kerry's total to 2213.

This does not include the super delegates (801) but Kerry would already have the minimum (2161).

If you are are not a Kerry supporter, you would probably hate to see the nommination decided by the unpledged superdelegates. Therefore, Kerry's delegate count should not be higher than 1360 (2161-801). This means that Kerry should be prevented from getting more than 29% (1360-580-57)/(3520-1013) of the remaining delegates.

This percentage will increase if Clark delegates decided to support another candidate besides Kerry. Even if we disregard the Clark delegates, Kerry would still only need 31% of the remaining delegates. If Kerry gets 45% of the delegates from the remaining primaries, he will not need any superdelegate votes for the nomination.

I don't see how the other candidates can obtain enough delegates to prevent the outright Kerry nomination without some significant changes. The best bet may be to garner enough delegates to show that a significant minority did not approve of his nomination. How Kerry reacts to this will be an important factor to how people will vote in November.

~Greg

[Freddie Stubbs]

17. Kerry currently has 56% of delegates that have been decided so far

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

If he keeps up at this rate, there will not be a second ballot.