Kerry vs. Bush: Poll Summary 2/18/04

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry vs. Bush: Poll Summary 2/18/04

JFK is on track to a landslide of biblical proportions. The scandals are just coalescing. How does 56%-44% sound? And JFK is not even the candidate yet. He is just getting warmed up.

As far as Bush's $200 million is concerned: advertising will just make it worse. Who will bear to look or listen to the creep? And when they do, he will lose votes each time he mentions Saddam or 911 or terra or....economy, etc.

Besides, we have Soros. He's got $ 5 billion - and he'd give it all to make sure Bush is not reselected.

Got that, fundies?

date kerry bush
218 48 43 cbs
208 48 49 cnn/usa
206 50 45 newsweek
206 48 50 time/cnn
205 43 47 fox
204 52 43 abc/wp
204 43 37 ap
131 51 43 quinnipac
127 47 46 arg
118 45 41 zogby

..... 47.5 44.4 average

......48.0 42.6 average without fox and cnn
(equiv to 54%/46%)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Yep. And this kinda' stuff helps:

[nborders]

2. Popular vote?

I'm not going to have the electoral college do this to us again. I wonder if the polls do a representative job of who is going to win what states and how many electoral votes each candidate will get?

~n

[TruthIsAll]

5. 51% of the vote (a 2% margin) insures an electoral college win.

56% is an EC landslide.

Don't worry about the EC.

[newyawker99]

6. Hi nborders!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[x-g.o.p.er]

7. Welcome to DU!!

[Leilani]

3. I don't want to rain on your parade

but I would be very very careful about getting overly confident.

These poll results would be more reassuring, if we were much closer to the election. Only people paying attention are political junkies like us.

I think the polls will go up & down as we get closer. Remember Dukakis had a huge lead over Bush Sr.

I think it will be very close, similar to 2000.

[TruthIsAll]

4. If it's very close, we LOSE due to Diebold fraud.

But it won't be close.

We won by over 540,000 last time. That is conservative, since Bush stole at least 200,000 and Nader cost us at least 700,000 net votes. This time many Repubs (10% ?) are moving to the Dems or just won't vote.

It's really very simple. In an honest world, Bush will lose big.
He is in a steep freefall from which he cannot recover. Those who hate Bush now will not go back.

In the last 3 presidential elections, the Dems have 127 million votes to the Repukes 113 million. That is 52.6%/47.4%. And the demographics are moving in our favor...

I'm not being optimistic, just realistic. As far as an Oct. Surprise from Bush: it won't fly. Everyone expects it so it will be seen as a last desperate attempt to hoodwink the voters. It will backfire. The people will not be fooled again.

[x-g.o.p.er]

8. A word of caution, though

Yes, this is good news, but it is only February. 9 months in politics is an eternity. Half the polls are still within the margin of error, and Bush has had the worst month politically of his presidency. It's going to take a serious debate on the issues to sway a big block of voters over, and it will take time.

We can hope, and be encouraged by what we have right now, but there is still a long way to go.