Which southern states can Clinton carry?

[Smarmie Doofus]

No DEM since the civil war has become pres without carrying some southern states. Those who failed to carry at least one failed in the general election.

In my lifetime this includes: Kerry, Gore, Dukakis,McGovern. HHH carried Texas because of Wallace but still lost the general. Carter carried a couple in his reelect try but lost the rest of the country. Stevenson carried some but it was a different era and he lost anyway.

So where does Clinton have a chance and what are the polls saying about her chances in those particular states? And how does her performance in those polls compare with those of Edwards and Obama?

[movonne]

1. I would like to know that too...

[quinnox]

2. Its too early for state polling

Its all speculation at this point.

An alternative way to ask the question - What southern states could Obama and Edwards carry that Hillary can't?

I suspect the answer will depend on what candidate you support. heh

[Smarmie Doofus]

12. Something to think about. No? nt

[DURHAM D]

3. None - but so what. Don't need them.

With the exception of Florida.

BTW - what southern states did Clinton carry?

[tsuki]

9. Florida not, sorry. The fix is in. n/t

[Smarmie Doofus]

13. Big Bill? Quite a few. Most of 'em, if memory serves. nt

[bigdarryl]

4. SLIM TO NONE!!! end of story

[Jack Bone]

5. my guess would be Arkansas to start with.

[Smarmie Doofus]

14. Any idea of how popular she is down there? nt

[SaveElmer]

6. Arkansas, Florida, Missouri...

With a shot in Virginia...

[Smarmie Doofus]

17. Missouri's border. She's going to do better than Gore did...

Arkansas , Fla. and VA. ?

Wow. And Gore was from Tenn.

[rinsd]

19. MO will be tough.

[SaveElmer]

21. She was Arkansas first lady...

Gore won Florida as we know, and Virginia is trending blue, Northern Virginia is driving the state politically...

I only listed states that have polls which at one time or another shown her defeating Republican candidates...there are others such as Kentucky where she has been within the MoE...

[Smarmie Doofus]

25. Can I ask where you're getting that data? nt

[AndyTiedye]

7. I Think We're Writing Off the South With Either Hillary Or Obama

[jedr]

8. The only southern states she can get are ones with a large

population of transplanted northerners. VA., N Carolina (?), Fl. ( if the election isn't fixed),Tennessee ( if they still like Gore), Ark. To me the fudge factor will be the female vote. Will women support her because she's a woman? ( not a sexist comment, no flaming please)

[Orangepeel]

10. it doesn't matter where the electoral votes are from if a candidate's got enough of 'em

"No DEM since the civil war has become pres without carrying some southern states"

So? Kerry would have won if he'd had Ohio's votes. Gore would have won if he'd had New Hampshire's. Getting southern states would be nice (because the republicans need them), but the odds are better in the west.

[Smarmie Doofus]

20. This sounds disturbingly familiar.

>>>it doesn't matter where the electoral votes are from if a candidate's got enough of 'em>>>

You're not gonna tell me next that there is a quiet substrata of the electorate that is going to 'come out of the woodwork' on election day that is never picked up by the polls and whose numbers are huge and whose loyalty is only to Clinton.

'Cause that's real familiar too.

>>So? Kerry would have won if he'd had Ohio's votes. Gore would have won if he'd had New Hampshire's. Getting southern states would be nice (because the republicans need them), but the odds are better in the west.>>

Woulda coulda shoulda. Didn't.

You make a better point in the mountain west, more in play for DEMs than before. But she's got to hang on to ALL of the Kerry states for that to matter including New Hampshire.

[Orangepeel]

28. actually, I'm supporting Edwards

but not because I think he needs to win any particular state to win. I prefer his focus on class and poverty and his health care plan.

I responded because I think that the idea that a Democratic candidate HAS to win a southern state or two to win is wrong (even if that candidate is John Edwards, who will probably win North Carolina, but it certainly not guaranteed). The candidate, whoever he or she may be, needs to focus on the states he or she has the best chance of winning.

I'm not suggesting writing off the south. As a party we really need to work on redeveloping ourselves there and projects like Dean's fifty state strategy are an excellent start. But it just doesn't make sense to spend limited time and money in the south when it will be more effective in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

The Democratic candidate needs to keep the states Kerry won and add some others. Although that could be North Carolina and some other state, it could also be Ohio, it could be some combination of New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Montana. It doesn't need to be, and is less likely to be, a southern state, no matter what happened "since the civil war."

[Smarmie Doofus]

11. Ooops. I forgot Mondale. nt

[rinsd]

15. Some polling.

There isn't much out there in head to head numbers by state for the Southern states.

Quinnipiac has been polling for FL(and other swings states like PA & OH), here's their latest

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1085

Hillary is within the MOE of Rudy and best all of GOPers. Obama loses to Rudy beats other GOPers.

[MannyGoldstein]

16. All Of 'Em, Of Course

She is a Southerner... AND a Northerner.
She is man... AND she is woman.
She Democrat... AND she is Republican.
She is the Atman... AND she is the Brahman.

She is th singularity... all things to all people... she is all hopes and fears, made flesh.
She is Om.

[Smarmie Doofus]

22. Yer a rascal, Dr Rohrsach! nt

[MrSlayer]

18. None.

As far as I can see, not a one.

[billyoc]

23. The Dems only need Florida, without FL the Rs are sunk.

There is no electoral college calculus that will deliver enough votes for a republican
without Florida. This assumes that California does NOT split up its electoral votes
by Congressional District by referendum.

[Smarmie Doofus]

24. And how's that looking?

>>>This assumes that California does NOT split up its electoral votes
by Congressional District by referendum.>>

Have to say, the California ( and Texas) GOP are electorally creative, if nothing else.

Can we do the same thing in Fla? How bout Texas?

[supernova]

26. We might end winner take all in NC too

Forcing both parties to spend money here.

[billyoc]

29. They're still collecting signatures for the referendum, they need

400,000 signatures. But they have plenty of RNC money for the sig drive.

Any state cand decide to cast their electoral votes any way they want. Literally.
If the New York State Legislature passed a bill to cast their electoral votes by
the flip of a coin, and the Governor signed it, they'd be flipping a coin in Nov. :hi:

[Smarmie Doofus]

27. Can she win it? She will not only have to outpoll...

... her opponent she will have to amass a sizable cushion, if history ( i.e. 2000)is any judge.

Not necessarily a landslide but a decisive popular vote victory. *Decisive*.

And can she win without Fla? And without any other southern states?