Rasmussen: Clinton gaining national support; Obama standing still or declining

[Karmadillo]

Yes, it's a national poll. Yes, Rasmussen is somewhat suspect. Yes, the other polls that show Clinton with a significant lead are also national polls. Yes, the Dean campaign of 2004 is a reminder of how quickly support can slip away. Yes, polls in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina show a closer race. Just posting this because it's an interesting take on how things appear to be trending and it will be worth watching to see it the early primary states begin to demonstrate a similar trend as 2008 approaches.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

Monday, August 06, 2007

New York Senator Hillary Clinton has been steadily gaining support since April in her quest for the Democratic Presidential nomination. A review of the weekly polling data released by Rasmussen Reports showed Clinton averaging 33% in April, 35% in May, 36% in June and 39% in July. During the last full week in July, Clinton topped the 40% mark for the first time and the first full week in August the frontrunner earned support from 44% of Likely Democratic Primary voters.

While Clinton has been gaining support, her nearest challenger had been standing still for most of that time. Over the past week-and-a-half, however, Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s support has declined for the first time since April.

The charismatic newcomer to the national political scene had enjoyed stable support in the 25% to 27% range for ten straight weeks during May, June and July. In fact, except for a brief blip to the 30% range in April, Obama’s numbers have been in the mid-20s just about all year. However, his support slipped slightly to 24% during the final full week in July and slipped again to 22% in the first full week of August. This is the first time all year that Clinton has doubled Obama’s support in a full week’s polling sample.

Clinton and Obama fairly evenly divide the African-American vote while Clinton leads among all other demographic categories.

more...

[zanne]

1. In NH, Clinton and Obama are TIED

In their latest poll the American Research Group has Clinton and Obama tied at 31%.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_arg_iowa_new_hampshire_so.php

[zulchzulu]

2. National polls will mean something after the first four states vote

Until then, it's pure speculation.

[bluestateguy]

3. Doesn't Rasmussen have anything better to do?

The guy is the pollster on steroids. Will we have to endure his hourly tracking polls next fall? Geesh!

We need to go back to old days of polling when polls were rare, and when there was only Gallup, Harris and Roper.

[rinsd]

6. Robocalls = less overhead, more flexibility & efficiency.

But yes I have joked that Rasmussen was seeking to torture political junkies byt doing a daily tracking poll the summer before the primaries.

[hijinx87]

4. the numbers in SC are moving obama's way

and they have been since the debate.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. In one poll. The other poll after the debate showed a 15 point swing to HRC nt

[elizm]

7. Same poll...Hillary loses and Obama wins.

Hillary loses to Giuliani and Thompson and barely beats McCain (tie within the margin of error). Obama beats them all handily. That is the real story...but you seem to ignore that.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

Clinton (49%) Brownback (41%)
Clinton (50%) Gingrich (43%)
Clinton (45%) Giuliani (46%)
Clinton (48%) Huckabee (43%)
Clinton (45%) McCain (43%)
Clinton (49%) Paul (34%)
Clinton (46%) Romney (42%)
Clinton (45%) Thompson (46%)

Obama (49%) Brownback (34%)
Obama (48%) Gingrich (38%)
Obama (47%) Giuliani (41%)
Obama (52%) Huckabee (32%)
Obama (46%) McCain (40%)
Obama (50%) Paul (30%)
Obama (47%) Romney (38%)
Obama (46%) Thompson (40%)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

8. And Edwards does better than both of them against Republicans

;)

[elizm]

10. I'm just sayin'

If someone is going to post a poll about Hillary winning and Obama losing....They should post the whole story....Or I will be forced to do it.

[rinsd]

9. Actually Obama just beat Rudy for the 1st time in the latest Rasmussen.

"That is the real story...but you seem to ignore that."

No the "real" story is right now nationally Democrats prefer Hillary to Obama by almost 2 to 1 margin in nearly every poll not just Rasmussen.

I would like to see Hillary numbers in Rasmussen improve against Thompson & Rudy

But she is beating those guys in other polls taken so I am not worried about her GE chances.