New Rass numbers: Hillary loses to both Ghouliani and Thompson by a point

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Hmmm...

==Senator Hillary Clinton is pulling away from the field in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination but remains weaker than other major Democratic contenders in match-ups with top Republicans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone shows former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over the former First Lady, 46% to 45%. Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson posts exactly the same numbers when matched against Clinton. It’s Thompson 46% Clinton 45%.

In June, Clinton was a point ahead of Giuliani and even with Thompson.

Like other Democratic candidates, Senator Clinton has gained ground on Giuliani in recent months. Since April, in poll after poll, Clinton and Giuliani have been separated by a point at most. But fellow Democrats are doing better. Former Senator John Edwards can now boast a seven-point lead over the mayor, Senator Obama has a six-point lead over him.

The same comparison obtains in match-ups with Senator Thompson, who is even with Giuliani in the GOP nomination race. While Clinton and Thompson have been close each time we ask about that match-up, Obama leads Thompson by six. Senator Edwards can still wrest a double-digit lead over Thompson.==

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_virtually_tied_with_gop_frontrunners_giuliani_thompson

[Danieljay]

1. Why do you hate Hillary?

How DARE you post this.

:sarcasm:

[mzteris]

2. oh bs - where do they poll?

The local walmart?

even my freeper brother (retired colonel) has had it with the Republicans at this point.

[OHdem10]

3. How can Obama and Edwards a;lmost always

beat the GOP Candidates but remain so far behind
Hilary. I have seen these same results before
and find it confusing?????

[nevergiveup]

4. It is because

the Democratic establishment will stick with Hillary no matter what. The regular party Democrats that I know love Hillary because they love Bill and they "think she has earned it". They think any Democrat will win just like they thought Kerry would "kick ass" in 2004. Hopefully Obama and Edwards will be able to hold on until next winter when the cold air will clear a few minds. Having said this I must point out that I don't dislike Hillary and you can't find a thread or post from me that trashes her. My feelings have to do with the fact that I just don't think I can personally handle another presidential election eve like 2000 and 2004 and with Hillary that is what we are likely to get. IMHO

[PATRICK]

5. What was true

about the average Dem activist then is not so true now. At a Mondale volunteer meeting, where not a little time was spent yearning for Cuomo, I noticed what likely is today's support for Hillary. Nice people, reasonable, in gentle step with the party myth and ever hopeful. Todays' grassroots has made that picture a lot more dynamic but when the sheep fall in line the candidate gets a powerful infra-party advantage over process, perception and organization. Once the stampede actually begins in election season this is the main line that makes it happen. The bitter divisions necessary for thwarting that advantage are not usually there, but to be kind, this is usually with the consent of the voters moving their way.

After the fairly heated contest of 2004 Hillary seeks to simply ease her way into that dominance of party organization and naive attitudes, functionary, somewhat removed from reality, blissfully concerned about party mechanics and advantages. Without waking the electorate up. This is risky strategy for the unresolved much more intractable difficulties of the general election but few candidates worry about the next battle until the nomination is in the bag.

None of these polls make any sense considering the inherent unelectability of Guiliani and the improbable charisma of Fred the Dead. What we have now is the general soft party loyalty scene and lack of passioned engagement. Before the gag reflex kicks in as choice approaches palate and throat. Since this is most true concerning the GOP I can refrain from speculating as to the real depth of commitment to Hillary at least among the actual electorate. Both Guliani and Hillary have kisses of death planted on their brows until they actually, if ever, are politically hit. For a non-incumbent with high negatives to sleep walk from this stage to the acceptance podium would really be weird in today's climate. It simply won't hold up as a phenomenon and the party organization has yet to feel the heat.
If both parties swindled their respective voters though, by simply going unperturbed down this inevitability path, then the voters(to the certain planned advantage of the GOP) would be more than ripe for even the dumbest third party alternative. We MUST get off the script.

[venable]

6. nevergiveup and PATRICK have both written astute posts

I think they describe the sit. perfectly.

I really do hope that we nominate a winner. At this point, that is my biggest concern. I strongly believe that is NOT HRC.

I think she has a very, very strong chance of getting the nomination, and almost none of winning the general. I'm a little depressed.

[PATRICK]

8. How about this one

We ended up with Dukakis who was not a favorite of the organization- which spent most of its energy talking Cuomo out of running. Not Cuomo, not Gore- Dukakis. I voted for Jesse Jackson in the late NY primary and the voters in general were pissed at what they were ending up with. They slaughtered Jesse with one gaffe about Jewish voters and blamed him for weakening the weak Dukakis.

Don't give up. We still have time, choices and inevitably wild rides. What is depressing is how much hinges on the Democratic primary process and candidate field to provide America ANY choice. In that fact things have continually gotten worse for the actual state of democracy in America. I think their rivals are awakening a voters' revolt at this moment. Although I back Edwards Obama has finally gotten around to lighting the spark that will derail the unsustainably rosy scenario. The polls only reflect the opinions of many days ago. Let's see what happens this time over the foreign policy challenge. And this is nothing to what happens when the Dem voters actually wake up to weighing the best electoral choice that can win surest and biggest today- and not merely nostalgia for the Clinton easy win second term.

But the establishment is wistful for the good old days and current advantages to be reaped. It is just that they are not alone and have little basis for their presumptions of a big Hillary win. They too can be shaken up and off the bandwagon. After all, we don't have the voter substitute additives the GOP has to sweeten the self-deception.

[venable]

9. dems read the national polls and mistakenly think that those numbers

have anything at all to do with actual general election electability.

they do not.

In 1997 with no repubs on the national scene making any noise, there was a national poll about repub presidential possibilities in 2000.

the witless governor of texas led that poll because no other names were familiar and his name was the same as a recent former president. there was no other reason that he would have been considered presidential fodder.

well, a few months later, another poll, and again w leads the pack. but this time they asked 'why?' they liked him. the answer was, generally, 'because he's popular'. Well, he was 'popular' because he had led the other poll, for the simple reason that he had the name of a former president.

I fear that is EXACTLY what is happening now.

but we don't have rove and katherine harris and the supreme court to steal the election.

[nevergiveup]

10. Both of your posts

are excellent. I think maybe I will chill for a couple of days, not look at any polls and send both Edwards and Obama another contribution.

[stuartrida]

7. Because democrats have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. nt

[cascadiance]

15. This is why Gore really must get in the race!

We need someone that will win both the primary and the election AND help us loosen Corporate America's fingers around our throats!

I really hope he still is considering getting in the race! It's still not too late yet Al!

[PurityOfEssence]

17. Let's talk about a couple of other dicey issues:

gender and revenge.

Many people are still so bent out of shape over the persecution of Bill Clinton for 7 years and 70 million dollars of public money and untold monies from people like Scaife, complete with shifting justifications, witness bullying, outright lying and grotesque twisting of legislative arms to attempt to hound him from power that they thirst for revenge. I truly believe that many want to elect her simply to rub the reactionaries' noses in it and dance on their graves. It's a normal and human desire--if not particularly our best trait as a species--and it'll lead to disaster.

The fact is that Bill, although he did many good things, dragged the party and country too far to the right. Somehow, neither she nor he understands what Edwards does: that these people aren't going to play fair or listen to reason, they must be beaten. Yes, this can only be done through coalition-building, but both Clintons have taken that way too far, and I don't really believe that they're free enough from the control of the corporate power structure. Regardless, the idea of shoving her down the collective throat of the country to get some kind of revenge and cackle "Ha-ha" like Nelson Muntz from "The Simpsons" isn't a very sound plan.

Many really feel that Bill "stuck it to 'em", and this clouds their judgement about what he REALLY did when in office.

Once again, my worldview is based on an assumption that very few things are black or white and very few things happen for only one reason. Sure, some probably have this vengeance as a prime motivator, but I'll bet that it's an issue for MANY.

Now for the even hotter topic: gender. Many women want a woman president so much that they'll go with almost ANY woman to secure that goal. Men and women are intellectual and spiritual equals in my book, and it's long past time for a woman president, but that's no reason to overlook policy and character just to make a point for gender. Nonetheless, many are behind her for this reason alone and with this reason as a major issue. There's also a bit of demographic leverage to be had here, too, since women are 51% of the population, and she'd pull in crossover, swing and non-voters who wouldn't ordinarily cast a Democratic ballot. The problem is that her negatives are incredibly high: high to the point that any advantage is probably negated and then some.

She also feels that she has to prove how tough she is, and is projecting an air of inflexibility that not only doesn't ring true, but isn't that great of a trait in the first place. People are often better at sensing this kind of thing than they're given credit for, and an assessment of character that's done on a sub-conscious level is often what drives someone's candidate choice.

These two issues are primal ones, and dig up deep-rooted emotions that cloud what little rationality many have to start with. Many whose real motivators are one or both of these issues will deny these observations vehemently, and they won't really be being deceptive in the process: they're being spurred on by their subconscious to such a degree that they think other issues are really driving them.

Anyone else care to chime in?

[LordJFT]

11. do any of these polls actually look at the electoral college?

[BeyondGeography]

12. We've picked losers in seven of the last 10 presidential elections

Hillary's current joy ride with the party faithful makes it look like 8 in 11 is within view.

[alfredo]

16. Rudy is more likely to self-destruct than Hillary. He seems to have

less self control. All we need to do is find what sets him off, and we can show his famous temper. Even without provoking a revealing moment, he has a lot to hide and some vocal and credible enemies. He seems to have the uncanny ability to surround himself with crooks.


Thompson, I don't think he has the fire in the belly. His fund raising is lackluster, his public speaking seems to be uninspired. You'd think as an actor, he'd be able to wow the crowds.

Hillary will win on competence, and toughness.

[kikiek]

13. They also have Bush at approval rating of 39. I don't buy their numbers.

And reading further this isn't even a significant change in their poll. She was up by one in the previous.

[Karmadillo]

14. WSJ/NBC poll has Clinton leading Giuliani by 6

A recent Media Matters article noted Clinton leads Giuliani in the vast majority of recent polls (10 out of 12, I think)