Hillary winning over moderate women...

[SaveElmer]

Women will help Hillary edge out Rudy

By: David Paul Kuhn
Aug 1, 2007 06:25 PM EST

All year long, Republicans looking for reassurance about their prospects for 2008 have had a bright spot. Despite the loss of Congress, despite an unpopular war in Iraq, despite a president with plummeting approval ratings, the GOP front-runner continually beat the Democratic front-runner in polls testing a hypothetical general election contest.

But now, Republicans have one more thing to be depressed about. A couple of recent polls show Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beating former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) if they are their party's nominees 15 months from now, according to surveys by the Gallup Organization, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Zogby International. Perhaps more noteworthy is the reason why: a migration of ideologically moderate white women into the Clinton camp.

...

In a hypothetical race between Clinton and Giuliani posed in mid-May, for instance, the two split women evenly, with 45 percent, Zogby found, while Giuliani won the men's vote by 51 percent to 41 percent. By mid-July, Clinton had improved to 54 percent with women against Giuliani's 35 percent, even as the men's vote hardly shifted. This accounted for Clinton winning the overall vote in this matchup by 47 percent to 41 percent. A July Gallup vote echoed the trend.

The movement is even more eye-opening when narrowed specifically to moderate women -- a key voting bloc in recent elections and one Clinton's team is giving special attention.

Moderate women favored Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent in the May poll. Clinton now wins moderate women 62 percent to 28 percent over Giuliani in the Zogby poll. The margin of error, when isolating data to look at such small groups, is as high as 8 percent. But the gains are nonetheless statistically significant.

...

Wednesday's Journal/NBC News poll shows Clinton defeating Giuliani, as well, 47 percent to 41 percent. In March, it was the reverse: Giuliani led 47 percent to 42 percent over Clinton. Like in the Zogby and Gallup polls, the shift is among women. Giuliani won men by 47 percent to 43 percent over Clinton in March in the Journal/NBC News poll, but women split between them. In the most recent survey, Giuliani still wins men by roughly the same margin. But Clinton now wins women, 54 percent to 36 percent.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5215.html

[rodeodance]

1. i like this poll.