TPMCafe: Gallup Measures Public Confidence in Presidential Hopefuls on Key 2008 Issues

[flpoljunkie]

July 31, 2007
Public Confidence in Presidential Hopefuls on Key 2008 Election Issues
No Candidate Has a Clear Edge on Iraq

by Jeffrey M. Jones and Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Panel survey finds each of the five best-known 2008 presidential candidates scoring similarly in ratings of public confidence in their ability to recommend the right thing for the war in Iraq. This suggests that despite public dissatisfaction with the war, it is not necessarily a winning issue for Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have a decided edge over the other candidates on terrorism, while Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fare best on healthcare. On the economy, the public is most likely to express confidence in Giuliani, Clinton, and Obama.

Ratings of the candidates on all four issues are highly influenced by partisanship, with Clinton's ratings the most polarized along party lines. In general, less well-known candidates Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney do not fare as well as the other candidates on all the issues, primarily because about one in five respondents do not have an opinion on how they would handle each of these issues.

The July 23-26, 2007, poll asked a representative sample of 1,011 Americans drawn from Gallup's household panel if they have "a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost no confidence" in the seven leading presidential hopefuls "to recommend the right thing" for each of four issues likely to be key in the 2008 campaign -- the war in Iraq, the economy, terrorism, and healthcare.


Party Polarization

Overall, a comparison of the confidence ratings given each candidate by members of the candidates' own and opposing parties underscores the highly polarized positioning of Clinton in the minds of many Americans. The average gap in confidence ratings of Clinton between Republicans and Democrats across all four issues is 61 percentage points. That is 18 points more than the next candidate, Edwards, with an average party difference of 43 points. Ratings of confidence in Obama by Democrats and Republicans also show a gap of more than 40 points on average.

There are smaller gaps in the ratings of the Republican candidates, suggesting that Republicans rate Democratic candidates worse than Democrats rate Republican candidates. Romney's ratings show the least polarization, in part because of his lower public profile. Among the better-known candidates, confidence ratings of McCain show the smallest differences along party lines.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28252

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/jul/31/poll_giuliani_mccain_most_trusted_on_iraq
Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,011 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 23-26, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. oy

"There are smaller gaps in the ratings of the Republican candidates, suggesting that Republicans rate Democratic candidates worse than Democrats rate Republican candidates."

Democrats really have to stop being so nice and friendly. Kick a pollster every now and then.

[RDANGELO]

2. One interesting note:

Hillary leads with independents in every category except terrorism.

[flpoljunkie]

3. Hillary has biggest gap between Republican and Democratic confidence ratings, averages -61%

This makes her the most polarizing of the candidates.

Party Polarization

Overall, a comparison of the confidence ratings given each candidate by members of the candidates' own and opposing parties underscores the highly polarized positioning of Clinton in the minds of many Americans. The average gap in confidence ratings of Clinton between Republicans and Democrats across all four issues is 61 percentage points. That is 18 points more than the next candidate, Edwards, with an average party difference of 43 points. Ratings of confidence in Obama by Democrats and Republicans also show a gap of more than 40 points on average.

There are smaller gaps in the ratings of the Republican candidates, suggesting that Republicans rate Democratic candidates worse than Democrats rate Republican candidates. Romney's ratings show the least polarization, in part because of his lower public profile. Among the better-known candidates, confidence ratings of McCain show the smallest differences along party lines.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28252

[sinkingfeeling]

4. Why was Fred even included as one of the top 7 candidates? He hasn't even declared he's running.