Latest WI Poll: Kerry 47, Dean 23, Edwards 20, DK 2, Sharpton 2

[Freddie Stubbs]

Kerry Holds Big Lead in Wisconsin Primary

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry looks set for another blowout win in Wisconsin, leading nearest rival Howard Dean by 24 points on the eve of the primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Monday.

Kerry, riding a wave of momentum that has carried him to 14 wins in the first 16 Democratic contests, most by huge margins, leads Dean 47 percent to 23 percent in the Wisconsin poll. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is third with 20 percent.

"Kerry goes into the primary with a commanding lead," pollster John Zogby said, noting likely voters give the Massachusetts senator the highest favorable ratings and the best chance to defeat President Bush in November.

Edwards and Dean, the former governor of Vermont, could face mounting pressure to drop their presidential bids and fall in line behind Kerry if he scores another victory in Wisconsin Tuesday.

more: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=4365518

[Guaranteed]

1. Right on...Dean in second...

Let's keep moving.

[burned]

2. considering Dean's press lately

I'd say those numbers are great. Three days ago they were in the single digits.

[Guaranteed]

3. Yeah...I think Kerry's gone down

He was in the mid-fifties, I believe.

Maybe we're seeing a bit of fear in the voters from the infidelity rumors.

[onehandle]

4. Unlikely...

Mainstream media has hardly touched that. For now it's an Internet thing. Hardly middle America.

[bigwillq]

30. Those numbers look a lot better for Dean

I would be happy with 25-30 % of the vote and that's on the nigh end. I think 20% would even be good considering I saw a poll with him at 6% just last week, sorry don't know the source or where I saw it. Of, course I would love for Dean to win Wisconsin.....

[robsul82]

5. Isn't that a big change from a couple days ago?

Dean was at like 4 or something. Spin, spin, spin.

Later.

RJS

[krkaufman]

8. Hard to tell. Different polling company. ZOGBY vs ARG

ARG numbers from a few days ago (2/12) had Edwards at 16 and Dean at 11.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wi/

The numbers in the Reuters article have been zogbied, so they can't be compared to the ARG polling from the 12th for the purpose of identifying any trends.

[SadEagle]

16. 11 vs. 23

this should be outside poll variation, no? Otherwise polls are utterly useless.

[mot78]

25. Dean's been at double-digits for a few days now

[AP]

6. This poll was taken before the debates:

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of 4 percent. It concluded before Sunday's debate among the five remaining contenders for the Democratic nomination.

[spooky3]

14. and before the Milwaukee J-Sentinel endorsement of Edwards

[spooky3]

17. this MOE is actually understated. The correct one is larger,

based on 200 not 600.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. No undecideds in this total

leaners were "commited" to a choice.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=807

[Bucky]

13. A vote for Kerry is the new "undecided"

In my growing years I've come to understand how someone might not have a presidential preference this far into the nomination process. I tend to be quick to decisions, but other people are more comfy in waiting before taking sides. Good on them. Such people today may see Kerry as inevitable and his experience in office as confirming his stability as a standard-bearer. Given Kerry's numerous 40%+ victories, it only makes sense for such people to jump on board with him.

[liberalmike27]

22. Why Yes

Why actually vote for the guy you believe in, just jump right on that bandwagon. Wait up, Kerry bandwagon, slow down, I want to jump on, can't decide for myself.

Surely, no one here on the DU would just vote for Kerry based on the huge corporations predictions of electability?? How can we trust the very people who gleefully ship jobs to third-world countries, and leave our country in the lurch, without jobs?

[paulk]

27. what predictions?

What huge corporations?

What are you talking about?

[WI_DEM]

9. decent showing by Dean

I can say that the Dean campaign is going all out in Wisconsin. He has been all over the state, and we are contacting people. Yesterday I was at the SEIU hq and making calls. Lots of undecideds and lots of people willing to talk to me about Dean.

No prediction on what happens tomorrow, but the media seems to want this to become a Kerry-Edwards race, even thought Dean has more delegagtes. If Dean comes in second in Wisconsin I think he should stay in.

[mzmolly]

10. Wow Deans moving up...

:hi:

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

11. If Dean and Edwards can keep Kerry under 50%

We can choose a compromise at the convention right? Sort of like runoff voting? The first delegate vote has a Kerry plurality, with Dean + Edwards a majority? Then second round, Dean + Edwards (and Sharpton and Kucinich) can go for a compromise candidate with 50% right?

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. Kerry currently has 56% of delegates that have been decided so far

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

If he keeps up at this rate, there will not be a second ballot.

[The Magistrate]

15. Indeed, Mr. Stubbs

The delegates provided by the Party apparat will support Sen. Kerry, and seal a majority by the start of the convention; it is their purpose to secure a professional's majority.

A showing in the low twenties for Gov. Dean is, in fact, a disaster for him, and will be received as such by all who are not clouded by zeal for him in their judgements.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[anti-NAFTA]

18. Please explain your signature. eom

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. It's a great picture of our last Democratic President

[anti-NAFTA]

28. Speaking at the DLC.

Is this intended to irritate people here or what?

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. Oh course not

The DLC and its members are quite popular with Democrats. Look at how well Kerry and Edwards (both DLCers) are doing.

[SadEagle]

19. Not enough.

They'd need to keep him under their combined total, as only candidates that get >15% get delegates. So suppose you get, in some state:

Kerry 45
Dean & Edwards 20 each.
Kucinich 14.
Sharpton 1.

Kerry would get 45/(45+20+20) ~ 0.53 share of the delegates (this is approximate, actually, as most delegates are allocated per congressional district, and only few at large)

[Duder]

20. Interesting...

'Pollster John Zogby notes "it's interesting to see that Edwards and Dean together suggest a substantial non-Kerry vote. What would happen if Kerry were to face just one opponent?"'

http://politicalwire.com/

[NewYorkerfromMass]

23. The intern story refutation should help Kerry back up

Perhaps he can get over 50% again.

[AP]

24. I don't think it registered with many people to begin with.

Nobody I know was aware of it outside of DU.

[jmoss]

26. that's bull!!

This is laim, but Saturday Night Live referneced it in a skit whereby "Al Gore" asks "John Kerry" about an alleged affair. "Gore" then goes on with words of encourgement--on account of his former "boss" doing so and STILL winning the beating George, Sr. by a landslide.

(by the way, Seth Meyer plays a great John Kerry).

[AP]

29. I've talked to about five people in the last three days and have

mentioned it, and they had no idea what I was talking about, and they're people who pay attention to politics.

[Mobius]

32. Good, I want Dean to be 2nd

He was my second choice next to Clark anyway. Clark is still my 1st choice, 2nd is now Kerry.