I think Bush's poll numbers may go up a bit in the coming weeks.

[leyton]

Since New Year's, the Democratic Presidential primary has dominated the news; no other story that I can think of has repeatedly been on the front pages consistently and for a long period of time. So basically a good deal of the substantial news stories (i.e., those not concerning Janet Jackson) concern the Democratic field. And the image of the Democratic field is basically an amalgam of the good qualities of the candidates - the service of Kerry, the achievements of Clark, the youthful brilliance of Edwards, the passion of Dean, etc. And what's more, it's been a nine-way criticism (especially after Iowa) of Bush.

And Bush has meanwhile sat on the sidelines, perhaps wisely so. It's hard for him to compete, as a primary battle is always more captivating than hearing Bush jet from fundraiser to fundraiser. And another law of politics confines him further: a month ago it would not have been wise for him to mention Kerry or Edwards by name, because it would automatically elevate him to an equal footing with Bush. And thus Bush has criticism coming in from nine sides, nine angles, nine different (indefensible) things, and his only option is to take aim at the whole field. And with such a wide field, he can't focus his criticism, so he's limited to making wide statements about "the Democrats."

So in effect, Bush's hands are tied, while Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Kucinich, and Sharpton can give him all they've got. I think this, to some extent, accounts for the fact that the emerging victor in the primary (Kerry, if you've been asleep) leads Bush by several points in national polls. He's got momentum, while Bush is on the bench.

But now we've got a presumptive nominee, and Bush and Kerry are practically going head to head even now in February. Bush's opposition has now been personified in Kerry, with all his strengths and weaknesses. Bush can now direct his attacks and name Kerry specifically, and call him a "Massachusetts liberal" and try and divide on the issue of gay marriage, et cetera. Essentially, Bush is back in the game, folks. The playground isn't just Democrats anymore, it's one Democrat and one Republican. I think as a result, Bush's numbers will go up, Kerry's will go down. Will Bush regain the lead? It's likely, since in a race as close as this, I think we can expect the lead to change more than one time.

I suppose the lesson we can learn from this is one I didn't fully grasp until I thought about these things: front-loaded primaries are bad. The Democratic party didn't have its message in 2002, but that was 2002. In the current primary season, we had our message, and we had the luxury of also having a wide and diverse field. Together, those sent Bush to the political sidelines for as long as we wanted. But it's a luxury we have lost due to the crowding of the important primaries to essentially a monthlong period.

[2004Donkeys]

1. That as well as unemployment might be downticking a bit

We'll see though. Don't lose hope.

[mot78]

2. Won't be suprised IMO

This will be a close election, so we'll have "up cycles" and "down cycles". It's been like that for *'s entire tenure in office.

[opihimoimoi]

9. The Numbers don't add up, Bush has probs galore.

Economy in a lurch, deficets outta control, AWOL story reveals a privledged wimp, Mars gambled flopped, Nascar dads 50/50 on the Daytona Intrusion/visit, Cheneys Haliburton connections a major damage, National debt goes up $2,000,000,000.00, 2.8 lost jobs, etc etc.

Bush is desperate to get back in. Will he?? I don't think so. Its too little too late. He wasted an opportunity. Flittered it away.
Plus, he now has the Credibility gap. Hardly anyone still clings to his stories as the gospel truth. He has lied, SOTU speech, and he is paying a price.

In the end, the public knows a good leader when they see one. Despite his pronouncements he is the one to save the world, Bush has come off as a baffoon. A whole lotta people now see they were fooled, not once, but twice. No more fooling, the Bush and his gang are on their way outta there/ After all, we know we can do much better. Bush is not the best this America can find, dats fer sure.

[lancdem]

3. I think it will be a close race

and the head-to-head numbers will fluctuate, certainly. But I don't see Bush's problems lessening necessarily. The party will be united behind the nominee, and discussion will turn to his VP choice. And issues like Plamegate will break open very soon, I expect.

BTW, I'm not sure the front-loaded primaries are a bad thing. I've read several articles about how the Dem Party is uniting earlier than it ever has, putting it in a stronger position against Bush.

[tedoll78]

4. This is key -

We have something big that Bush doesn't get this year: the captivation of a nation over who will be the VP nominee.

We can keep people guessing for all it's worth and milk it for every single bit of positive press we can get out of it. And then, when the announcement is finally made, we need to make a HUGE deal out of it - like it's the beginning of a new golden age - like our nominee has the judgement skills of a god.

Remember when Gore picked Lieberman? TONS of positive press. That was one good instance in which Gore very successfully milked positive coverage from a campaign event. People were talking this up for a whole week. In a close race, an entire week in the spotlight might make the differenct..

[Leilani]

5. I agree

This is going to be a long one, & the polls will go up & down.

[King of New Orleans]

6. There will be ups and downs

Bush-Cheney are still going to take another hit on the Plame affair. And when the deficit cracks the big $500 billion mark.

[Paulie]

7. I'm waiting for them to push congress on raising the debt ceiling 1 Tril!

It's going to look really BAD, raising the debt limit from 7.3 Trillion to 8.3+ Trillion, with a capital TEE

They can't blame the dems, they have all 4 branches of gubment.

[0rganism]

8. the bushies have to hold back a bit, until after Kerry locks it up

If they hit too hard with the attacks before the March 2 primaries, they risk succeeding, as with the ruthless attacks on Howard Dean. They could actually knock Kerry out of the lead, and then have to start over with Edwards or (imagine it) Kucinich.

[shivaji]

10. Bush numbers can't go up unless unemployment drops below

5.5%. The total job numbers are skewed because the government
sutvey queries only the larger employers. Left out are all those
self employeds, and Ma & Pa operations and out of your garage
operations. The old "householder" survey on the other hand
actually calls households at random, and asks "are you working or
looking for work".

[Taeger]

13. Payroll receipts

They can tell who is working by who is paying their taxes. The Bush admin doesn't want to use this number because it shows all the people who have dropped of the "official" unemployment numbers based on people collecting benefits.

I want a pledge from the Democratic presidential candidates. They will institute an "employment index" that accurately reflects the number of people working, not working, under-employed, self-employed and intentionally out of the workforce.

[bushwakker]

11. They can't keep going down

he will stabilize. your thoughts re front loaded are good.

[Taeger]

12. The Empire Strikes Back!!!!

Bushie tried doing this on Meet the Press. He only fucked up his poll numbers again. The son is doomed to the fate of his father unless Diebold can steal enough votes.