Does Ahnold help...

[RoeBear]

...the Republicans, or is California still a lock for us?

[2004Donkeys]

1. Both

n/t

[rwheeler31]

2. Ahnorld

is a joke

[mot78]

3. Hard to say

This has been discussed many times so far, and some feel he'll put California in play (but we hear that EVERY election cycle) while others say Ahhnold won't. Personally I believe it's somewhere in the middle. We'll probably end up spending more time there, and in NY because of Giuliani and Koch, than we did in 2000, but we won't lose California. Meanwhile, * will be forced to spend his ass off in the Midwest and in industrial areas of the South, explaining to voters why he's outsourcing their jobs, and about how free trade is better than sex.

[bushwakker]

8. Why NY?

Pataki held NY in 2000. NY is out of play.

[coloradodem2005]

4. I would say both..

However, the only reason people voted for Ahnold is because he was a big movie star and people thought it would be cool to have him as their governor. It is all star power. Therefore, they like Arnold, but hate Bush. For all we know they will hate Ahnold by 2006 but that remains to be seen.

However, it gives the GOP a major foothold in California that they have not had for a while and, as a Coloradoan, I say, the recall was a power grab.

[GodHelpUsAll2]

6. Arnold's FEC problems

may not play to well in California.

[meti57b]

10. I agree with everything you said.

It's what I would have posted if you hadn't already.

[salin]

11. gop held governor in 1992 and 1996

and Bill still won. Folks forget that before Davis's brief 1 1/4 terms... there were 4 terms of republican governors in California. The state splits its tickets regularly. I no longer live there, but don't think that Arnold is much of a help for bush.

[jeter]

18. I think Arnold hurts Bush

The same way Wilson hurt them.

Also, Arnold has to be carefull not to get too cozy with Bush - otherwise he may have his own political problems in 2006.

California will go Democrat. Bush thought he would win the state in 2000 as well. Spent a lot of money there. Gore won it by 13%. Easy peasy.

Not a problem.

[hellhathnofury]

5. I don't think it does.

Wilson didn't help much. People don't view Arnold and Bush as the same type of Republican. Stupid, stupid people.

[knight_of_the_star]

7. Which is what helped him

That and the media.

[DjTj]

9. It doesn't help, but it's a positive sign.

California didn't vote for Ahnold so much as they voted against Gray Davis, who was seen as a corrupt insider beholden to the special interests. There is a big skepticism towards incumbent career politicos and this will translate to a distrust of Bush.

[Taeger]

13. Ahnold and special interests

Ahnold is 100% special interests. He had meetings with Ken Lay and Enron BEFORE the manufactured California energy crunch. He was in on it.

Ahnold is a bitch to industry. He is a marionette (a VERY muscular one), not a politician. He has as much political clout as Jesse Ventura.

Everything about Ahnold is fraudulent. Californians will give Ahnold the heave ho in the next election when they see what an ABSOLUTE MESS he's made.

BTW, one of the reasons that Ahnold was so acceptable is that he isn't a social conservative. He's a social liberal. Fiscally, he's a spend and borrow Republican. This WILL NOT help Bush in California. They thought Bush was an asshole LAST time around. Exactly what would change their mind for this round?????

[mountainvue]

12. Arnold

has broken an awful lot of his campaign promises already. I think the bloom is off the rose. I think it just depends on how bad it is come election day.

[VOX]

14. Arnold is nothing but trouble -- why else was the recall in place in 2003?

What was the burning emergency to fire Gray Davis, thanks to RW cash?
Arnold will serve as the Honorary Chair of Bush-Cheney ’04 in California.

He has now put the GOP and RW fundraising machine in an inside position in Sacramento. Arnold is *very* well connected with the high-power corporate suits, and, as if they needed it, the GOP will be raising tons of cash in California.

I live in L.A., and there is at least one Schwarzenegger movie on cable here *every* goddamn night. I'm afraid that too many dumb people have blurred the line between his movie characters and the man himself. I was shocked when he was voted in so easily in the phony, RW-financed recall election, which was nothing more than a power-grab prior to the 2004 election.

I'm sorry to say that, IMO, the Democratic candidate will have tough sledding this time in California. He may still win, of course, but it will be tight.

[BruinAlum]

16. I agree. Why so much RW effort to get him in there in the first place.

The GOP machine went to great lengths to recall Davis shortly after he was re-elected and to get Arnie in there. They were damned determined to get a Republican in there.

It's hard to imagine Bush could win CA, but it does make you wonder.

[RoeBear]

17. A win in California is a win...

...but if it drains hard earned cash form other states it could cause other problems.

[jeter]

19. rezmutt, HaHa - I live in LA too

And i've noticed the same thing. An Arnold movie on every night. I first noticed this during the Recall.

[Timahoe]

15. Bush will only win California

in the event that he is re-elected in a landslide, in which case all hope is lost anyway.

I don't see how he can win a close election with California.

[tritsofme]

20. He won't win CA

but we won't be able to take it for granted.

I think the state is "in play"

Which only means we will have to spend more money and time there than we would under normal circumstances.

[genius]

21. Diebold's here. The Dems lose. Just watch.

If you don't like it, contact Kevin Shelley and demand a paper trail this year.

[GRClarkesq]

22. I think unknown at this time

since Ahnold is a bit of a different creature that a typical governor pulling for his party's candidate.

I will have to see what kind of effort Ahnold can make.

In the end most likely scenario, not in play but Dems must spend more money in huge media market to ensure lock. No Dem electoral scenario without California.

[shivaji]

23. I disagree,,,,Ahnold will whore the heck out for Bush* because.....

Ahnold needs federal help big time and soon. California's fiscal
health is comparable to an Aid's patient, kept alive by massive
medication, in this case, loans.

My wife worked in a medical office in CA, and over 50% of the
patients were on MediCal....California version of medicaid. It is
ridiculously easy to get on medical and food stamps in CA.