A prediction by a psephologist

[sushi]

According to psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, Kerry is headed for landslide victory.

"Adapting his electoral pendulum to the US, psephologist Malcolm Mackerras predicts the Democratic challenger will win the White House."
"First, he will win 260 votes by carrying every state carried by Al Gore in 2000. Second, he will win 27 votes in Florida, 4 in New Hampshire, 11 in Missouri, 20 in Ohio and 5 in Nevada."

More...

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It's a long article, in Rupert Murdoch's "The Australian." I can't find the link. If you can you'll see Mackerras' US pendulum.

[Lindacooks]

1. Is there some kind of record

of his predictions? If there is, that would make this one more credible, and I pray to every god there ever was or is that it is credible.

[union_maid]

2. First I had to look up " psephologist"

Having done that, I say..way cool!

[MoonRiver]

15. What does it mean?

I'm too lazy to go look it up.

edit: Never mind, I found it in the thread.

[quinnox]

3. I'm fairly confident but wow

This is a pretty bold prediction.

[sushi]

7. I think so too

He's not even the candidate yet.

I wish somebody could find the link. Like I said, it's quite a long article.

At the end he wrote "I expect soon to be able to describe Bush as the Rutherford Hayes of the 21st century."

Who is Rutherford Hayes?

[quinnox]

11. I have no idea

who Rutherford Hayes was.

[unblock]

17. rutherford b hayes:

(edited to add a link -- just google "hayes tilden" for a whole slew...)

hayes won a very bush-gore-esque disputed election in 1876.

samuel tilden nominally won by 19 electoral votes, but 20 were disputed. once again, the constitution was ignored, and an ad hoc commission cut a backroom deal to award the 20 disputed votes to hayes.

so hayes won, and became a very ineffective one-termer, while tilden vanished into nothingness.

throughout his 4 years, hayes was referred to as "your fraudulency".

http://www.msys.net/cress/ballots2/1876_who.htm

[belle]

22. Exactly.

(question: "Who is Rutherford Hayes?")

[sushi]

24. It is just posible

that this prediction was published before, and could be messed up by, the story in "The Sun," which is not a highly-rated British paper.

Here is another article to read.

"No Time for Affair with Kerry" (by Misha Shubert)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,8693388%255E2703,00.html

[NV1962]

4. I see NV going Dem too, this year

How about people in NH, FL, MO and OH? How's the mood there?

[Clark4Prez]

9. Florida is Repuke heaven

But we might pull it out again this year (hopefully this time the votes will count!!!). For some unknown reason, people seem to like Jeb, although for the life of me, can't figure that one out.

This is based on a highly unscientific system of listening into people's conversations in public. As for listening in private, well that's still Ashcroft country.

[Birthmark]

13. If you think that FL is Rep. heaven...

...then you should drive east for about thirty minutes where I live. I haven't encountered anybody willing to admit that they voted for * or that they will vote for him this year. Jeb ain't too popular over here, either.

[NV1962]

16. Hmmmmm...

That's pretty much what I pick up among (by far) most Republicans, here: anger, shame and resentment.

Is that in rural or urban FL?

[Clark4Prez]

19. My area of travel is Jacksonville and Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach

Jacksonville is definately GOP territory, they love them some Bush. In south Florida, it is mixed Palm Beach is Dem and GOP ville depending on where in the county you are. Ft. Lauderdale is more Dem friendly except for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel, which is right-wing baby.

Florida, it's still all f'd up. But, like I said, I think we have a shot this year.

[Foswia]

23. Tallyho [thanks to the state workers] is Demmy [nt]

[Clark4Prez]

27. Lucky you! n/t

[Birthmark]

28. Volusia County.

I know that there are some pockets of Bushbots, but on the whole I think that anyone named Bush is in trouble. My neighbor is retired military (82nd Airborne, no less). We have had many political arguments over the years, but we are in complete agreement on the need for anyone with the Bush name to get the hell out of politics.

The Dems carry FL this year!

[sushi]

20. About New Hampshire

Mackerras says that it only needs a swing of 0.7% for Bush to lose NH.

[Caution]

5. psephologist - defined

someone who pursues the scientific study of elections

[ngGale]

8. Can the 'psephologist' also predict the vote related to...

Florida. Now that electronic voting has been upheld and they will be unable to use a paper back up ballot to keep it honest?

[sushi]

12. He says (predicts!)

"Bush will in 2004 again carry every state in the South, except Florida."

[MurikanDemocrat]

6. psephologist - The study of political elections.

I had to look up psephologist.

Do you know the name of the article?

[sushi]

10. I didn't know it either.

I first posted it in GD (but it was locked because it belongs here) and another poster told me the meaning of psephologist.

The name of the article:

"Kerry headed for landslide victory"

[MurikanDemocrat]

18. I found the article doing a search in The Australian

but it requires a subscription to get to, or a minimum of $14 for 10 downloads

[cosmicdot]

14. Malcolm Mackerras

the article is in The Australian's archive
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/archives/


Associate Professor Malcolm Mackerras
BEc Sydney

Professor Mackerras was born in Sydney, completing a BEc at the University of Sydney. He joined the Department of Government in 1974 and teaches both Australian and U.S. politics. He is well known for his interest in Australian elections, and has written and contributed extensively to radio and television on most federal and state elections. In 1992 he was Visiting Professor of Political Science at Oklahoma State University. He was promoted to Associate Professor at the School of Politics with effect from 1 January 1999.

Research Interests
Australian and New Zealand elections; American politics and electoral systems.

The Mackerras Pendulum

Malcolm Mackerras is well known for the "Mackerras Pendulum" which applies to all Australian lower houses with single member electorates. These are usually published again in The Australian newspaper shortly before polling day.

Linked below are all these pendulums ranked in order of the population of the jurisdiction. The School is currently updating its web site. When that has been done all pendulums will be up to date. However, at the time of writing (January 2004) only those for the 2004 Federal Election plus Queensland and the Northern Territory are up to date. If you write to Professor Mackerras (as many people have done) he can send you (by “snail mail”) his newest pendulums for New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia . In the case of Western Australia the pendulum here is up to date for the 2001 election on the old boundaries. However, Professor Mackerras can send you his pendulum for the new boundaries. They will apply for the February 2005 general election in Western Australia .

http://www.pol.adfa.edu.au/staff/mackerras.html

[Hippo_Tron]

21. I bet we carry Louisiana as well...

So that's another 7.

[King of New Orleans]

25. makes LA 9 electoral votes

Louisiana will be close

[shivaji]

26. WHy don't we declare victory and use the money saved by not

holding the general election to help the poor? Makes a lot of
sense to me. A psephologist prediction should override the need to
go thru the unnecessary process of voting in the winner.

[Moderator]

29. locked

Please post an opinion when you quote from a RW source, and any Murdoch source is RW.

Thanks