Current Status of the Primary Polls, State-by-State (7-20-07)

[Yukari Yakumo]

Dark: Old polls (> 1 month old)
Light: Recent polls

Current Status:


Trends:


Current Status:


Trends:


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Dems--
A recent poll shows Idaho is too close to call between HRC and BO, and a new poll in Colorado shows HRC has taken the lead in that state. The reason HRC is now be shown as leading in South Carolina is that the Mason-Dixon poll showing BO leading is now over a month old. Curiously... I wonder why aren't there more polls in SC since it's one of the five lead-off states? (Edit- A new CNN poll shows HRC with a big lead in SC.)

Beyond that, nothing new really to report.

Reps--
A new poll in Idaho shows Romney leading there. Michigan has gone from Ghoul to too close. And Colorado has gone from too close to having the Ghoul leading.
New York's poll has aged, but I don't doubt the Ghoul still leads there. However, I suspect the leads may have changed in the other states that only show old polls. Especially any state that shows McCain leading (except Arizona), Arkansas, Kansas, and Alabama. I suspect Fred has leads in most, if not all, of the states in the the Deep South.

[WCGreen]

1. I love that Fred isCode Pink

[Lasher]

2. Pretty cool, thanks!

Looks like Publicans are more fragmented than we. I hope they fight tooth and nail amongst themselves right up to election day.

[Yukari Yakumo]

3. An interesting little detail about Obama's brief lead in SC

This tidbit from the Kos after Election '06:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/16/192046/99

The short answer is, Rasmussen was the most reliable Senate pollster this cycle although, significantly, they didn't perfectly peg a single race. USA Today/Gallup came in a close second. There was a significant drop-off in accuracy to the third-place Survey USA, followed by the much-loved but second-worst pollster, Mason-Dixon. Reuters/Zogby came in last place, despite having exactly pegged more races than any other pollster.

<...>

The most surprising news is how poorly Mason-Dixon stacked up. They really botched a number of races this year. Also interesting about M-D is that their polls this year skewed very much to the right. In fact, in every single race where their accuracy margin was >0, they skewed to the right, sometimes extremely.

Why is significant? Because the only poll that said Obama was leading in SC in the past couple of months was Mason-Dixon.

[Yukari Yakumo]

4. I think I've finally wrapped my head around the Delegate Selection Rules and the 15% threshold

Though, does this apply to primaries, caucuses, or both?

I'll probably make a new Dem map to reflect this system.

Edit--


Proportions based on height, not area.