Heading Into SC Debate, Hillary Jumps To 14-Point Lead In The Palmetto State

[William769]

ON EDIT not 16 point lead, but 14 point lead.

[jmp]

1. 14 (nm)

...

[Stuckinthebush]

2. yay. it's inevitable. vote hil

yay

[William769]

Sounds good to me!

:)

[William769]

3. Self delete, dupe.

[Colobo]

15. Bah... this hasn't even started.

[TeamJordan23]

4. Opinion Research is none other than InfoUSA, which is owned by Clinton supporter Vinod Gupta. nm

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. And? Its polls are consistent with every other poll. Face it: HRC is the front-runner right now nt

[TeamJordan23]

7. Maybe you should check your facts.

In the last Mason-Dixon South Carolina poll, Obama was up by 9. I am not denying she is the front runner. But if one poll has Obama up by 9, this one with Clinton up by double digits. Something is pretty suspect.

If InfoUSA/Opinion Research was owned by a major fundraiser/supporter, I'm sure you would be having a hay day.

[Colobo]

8. I'll wait for the new Mason-Dixon poll to see if it is consistent.

[William769]

9. And how old is that poll?

[TeamJordan23]

12. And who owns Opinion Research/InfoUSA again?

Poll was from a month ago. But if you think there was a 23 point swing in a month where much has not happened, you must be living in looney land.

[William769]

13. Thats what I thought.

[TeamJordan23]

16. Is the owner of this polling company a HUGE Clinton supporter/fundraiser? That's what i thought. nm

[William769]

17. Are you a parrot?

[TeamJordan23]

18. No, just answering the questions that you never do. =) nm

[William769]

20. Noone asked, but you said it 3 times.

Thats why I thought you were a parrot.

[Ethelk2044]

21. If Gupta company did the polling yes. Disregard

[rinsd]

24. So a large polling firm is going to ruin their rep because the owner likes one of candidate?

So riddle me this Six Degrees of Smearation, why does Opinion Research's polling on the Nat Dem race below the average of all the polls as opposed the being in the high end.

[rinsd]

10. SC polls are all over the place.

CNN 07/16 - 07/18 380 LV 39 25 15 10 Clinton +14.0
American Res. Group 06/26 - 06/30 600 LV 37 21 22 -- Clinton +15.0
Mason-Dixon 06/13 - 06/15 329 LV 25 34 12 2 Obama +9.0
Winthrop Univ. 05/16 - 05/27 RV 29 21 11 -- Clinton +8.0
American Res. Group 05/23 - 05/26 600 LV 34 18 30 -- Clinton +4.0
Insider Advantage 05/08 - 05/09 500 LV 27 31 16 -- Obama +4.0


But it should be noted that Opinion Research's national polls match up with other national polls.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. As post 10 notes, the SC polls are inconsistent. Opinion Research's national polls are consistent...

...with other national polls.

The SC polls, like the FL polls, are very inconsistent. One poll had Edwards at 30% in SC while the next one had him at 11%.

[SaveElmer]

23. Ok...so then we can say because one of Obama's big supporters is Tony Rezko...

That Obama is a slum lord?

[Colobo]

6. Why is Gore on that poll?

[rinsd]

11. I guess after he did well on that NH poll that some pollsters have begun to include him in others

[Ethelk2044]

19. I do not believe CNN Polls

[TeamJordan23]

22. I bet if Hillary get the nomination, CNN will drop Opinion Research for the general election.

Because I am sure they will not be able to stray away from all the attacks they would get from the Right about Opinion Research (aka InfoUSA) and their conflict of interest.

[Ethelk2044]

26. People just need to write them and call them on it. Then see if they keep them as their

polling company

[abq e streeter]

25. 50-39

percent for Not Hillary. No way of telling from this how many backers of the other guys would back her as a second choice, or whether they'd unite to prevent the disaster of HRC being the nominee. Although in a perverse way, not a disaster for me--I've already got some good bets going that if she's the nominee , we lose; no takers on that at last week's poker game interestingly enough... but I stand to make a few bucks from the utter disaster of a Republiklan continuing to occupy the White House , which I have great fears of happening if we're foolish enough to choose her to run. She'll mobilize the other side like crazy, and may turn off too many progressives into not voting (not me, I'll hold my nose and vote for her). Hate to profit from the misfortune of my country but hey, a guys gotta make a living...

[rinsd]

27. Actually there is a way to look at that

Gallup has done such polling

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES



http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=17785

[abq e streeter]

28. Thank you for providing that

Thought maybe that kind of polling had been done. Still think we're making a huge mistake if we nominate HRC...

[BeyondGeography]

29. The Obama campaign is laughing at this poll

From First Read:

...However, we've already had a few folks chime in to remind us that the owner of Opinion Research is none other than InfoUSA, which is owned by Clinton supporter Vinod Gupta. And the Obama campaign says they're laughing at these results. "Our grassroots effort in South Carolina is moving at a historic pace. We couldn’t feel better about the energy and enthusiasm for Obama in the Palmetto State," a spokesman tells First Read.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/07/20/280196.aspx

The campaign is also questioning the poll's methodology. From Atlantic Online:

..."First, this poll is clearly an outlier from all the other public polls in SC," an adviser tells me.

Second, whites make up 53% percent of the sample, which is "just wrong," the adviser said. "Blacks make up a slight plurality." And the pollster "has such small samples here that your margin of error is really large on groups that make up roughly 50% of the electorate."

Obviously, the voter screen is important too. Primary turnout is generally about 15% of the eligible adult population. CNN interviewed 1,052 adults and filtered a sample of about 380 of them.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/07/obamas_team_not_happy_with_the.php

I'd also add that this poll has an 8% MOE, which is another way of saying it is completely worthless.

[William769]

30. Well if they are laughing they are the fools. NT