Bush's core support Stronger than Kerry's

[LiberalTexan]

In an article by the Washington Post today regarding Bush's poll numbers and whether he stretched the truth to justify the war in Iraq, I noticed something interesting. Bush has more support in his party than Kerry does in his party.

Just wondered if anyone wanted to discuss that on this cold Sunday afternoon? What will this mean if Kerry is the accepted nominee? Will Kerry excite our masses?



Subject: Most Think Truth Was Stretched to Justify Iraq War (washingtonpost.com)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37340-2004Feb12.html
washingtonpost.com

In a head-to-head matchup, Kerry beat Bush, 52 percent to 43, percent among registered voters. Bush had more passionate support -- 83 percent of his backers said their support was strong, while 59 percent of Kerry supporters said so...

[Guaranteed]

1. Kerry's support is a mile wide

and an inch deep. Cliche, but true. If the winds change, he'll fall extremely easily.

[aquart]

4. And if he's the nominee, I will vote for him.

This is a pointless and ridiculous conversation.

Bush's support is limited and eroding daily.

The Democrat will win in a fair contest.

Will it be a fair vote? Worry about that.

[Nazgul35]

10. It is a fair conversation...

because not all Dems are strong.....many are leaners....

This support will not come automatically, it must be earned...

How Kerry will shore up that support is important...many things can go wrong....

He certainly has much more work to do than Bush...

[LiberalTexan]

20. Thanks for pointing this out nazgul

It's kind of what I meant by posting this.

I know that many of us will vote for whomever the nominee is, but how much will that nominee motivate us to do more than just vote??

I'd like to know, now that it looks like he'll be the nominee, what the campaign is doing to motivate the core? Oftentimes, a candidate will take for granted that the core support is there. He could win if we all decided to do MUCH more than just vote.

Will we be as rapid as Bush supporters? WE HAVE TO BE.

[candy331]

12. I don't think the record crowds will continue to

show up if and when Dean drops out completely. I see a sign of complacency already on the horizon with the DC voters even though there seems to be no shortage of ones who try to justify that it ain't so. Kerry has no fire but he is now on fire himself and will sink whether sooner/later remains to be seen and I believe was designed to sink by the higher ups from the start.

[x-g.o.p.er]

2. That's because the primaries aren't over yet

Once Kerry is the nominee, I think his base will shore up. With Bush running unopposed as the incumbent, I think 83% is fairly low. I expect Kerry's numbers will be stronger when he wraps up the nomination.

[LiberalTexan]

24. This would have been a good point.........

back in July 2003. Now our support for a frontrunner should be much higher than this. If you asked us back then, we would have said that after it became clear in the primaries who the nominee would be, we'd all unite behind that one candidate. That hasn't happened. Many Dems don't even support one candidate over another (like we do here at DU) and THOSE are the Dems they are polling. Even those peole are not saying their support for Kerry is unwavering.

I'm just saying we can't be blind to this. WAKE UP DEMOCRATS!!!! It's already 2004 and we've got a lot of work to do if we are going to beat Bush!!!!

[vi5]

3. The difference is that they 100% know he will be their nominee....

At this point there is still the outside chance that Kerry will not be the nominee. The other wild card piece to this is his VP choice. If he picks someone too similar to himself geographically or ideologically, or someone too far removed from himself (ie. Gore's Leiberman pick) there could be something to this article.

But I think once it is definite that Kerry is the nominee and once he picks a stellar VP choice (my fingers are crossed for either Clark or Edwards) that his support will solidify in a way that most people even within our party do not expect.

We've seen it here this week. With just a few negative attacks on Kerry from the other side we've seen people with Dean avatars and former Clark supporters and many others come to the defense of the candidate and express more forceful support and unity than I've seen on here for months now. There are still your outliers and they may never come into the fold. But I think with each passing day and with each time that Kerry shows us what he's made of and what he can do and more supporters coalescing around him there will be no stopping us.

[Raven]

5. You are comparing apples and oranges.

Bush is a sitting President. Kerry is a still emerging opponent among many good Dem candidates. If Kerry gets the nomination, his support will solidify and deepen. At least this is what I hope will happen. The Dems have to unite going into Boston or they will not have a prayer.

[LiberalTexan]

21. You are saying that, for instance, MY support will solidify and deepen?

There are lots out there like me who aren't inspired in the least by John Kerry. Sure, I'll vote for him in the general election, but he isn't going to see any $$ from me. I'll donate to MoveOn or True Majority instead. And, will I campaign for Kerry? Will I blockwalk and talk him up (how-?- if I don't believe in some of the core things he says??)....will I phonebank and travel to other states to shore up support and get real excited? No. I don't see myself doing that. I will work to register new voters and I'll call my precinct voters to be sure they show up on Election Day, but John Kerry isn't the one who inspires me to do those things. Democracy does.

So, what will the Kerry campaign do to inspire people to get involved? We can't just ASSUME that everyone will be gung ho. I think that is a HUGE mistake.

I think this is a point that the Kerry campaign needs to focus on. Exciting the BASE. Not ignoring the BASE. How are they going to do that?

If we go on assumptions or hope, we'll lose this election. Mark my words.

[Nazgul35]

6. there you go....

actual proof that support for Kerry is not based upon his policies and knowledge of the candidate...

He has alot of work to do...

Any screw up will result in a flame out and supressed Dem turnout.

It is hard enough to beat an incumbent, because it is a two question debate most voters engage in:

1) Is the incumbent doing a good job:
Yes ---> Vote for Incumbent
No ---> Proceed to question 2

2) Is the alternative better than the incumbent:
Yes --> Vote for challenger
No --> Vote or stay home

If anything emerges that will undermine Kerry in relation to Bush, than the incentive for voters to choose Kerry will diminish...

People also forget that most people who call themselves Dems or Reps are not politically engaged...and then there is the independents.....

One screw up and it will be gone...

[blackcat77]

7. What is the core support for "anybody but Bush?"

I think it's juat as high as the numbers for him, and Kerry won't do anything to hurt himself.

[mmonk]

8. bush's core may be strong

but it's not as large as those who are fed up with the admin.

[BeFree]

32. * core is rotten

That is the huge advantage Dems have. Our core is as sweet as honey and refreshing as rain. The * core stinks to high heaven.

[usregimechange]

9. Reason why that is true TODAY

Kerry is not yet the nominee. People want Bush wacko gone.

[Lefta Dissenter]

11. I think that Wes Clark was right (of course)

when he said that George Bush ran as a uniter, and that's just what he did, he united the Democratic Party.

Just let us get through the nomination process, painful as it is, and I think you'll see the true strength of the Democratic Party. If it's a fair election, we'll kick bush's ass. But we need to create a landslide, so it's too overwhelming even for Diebold to fudge.

[Nazgul35]

14. we were united in '84 and '88

and look what happened...

I am more concerned that there is an attitude that all Kerry has to do to get Dem voters is be the nominee...

Not all Dems are active and engaged....they will make decisions based upon what happens during the election....anything could happen and we should all be willing to discuss potential problems and not so willing to assume anything....

Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups......can we really afford to assume anything here?

[Lefta Dissenter]

25. You misunderstand my point

which is usually the fault of my babbling without managing to actually articulate my point...

I think that at least half of the country is pissed off enough that we will work our asses off to defeat bush. Four years ago we learned the lesson of what complacency produces.

No matter who the nominee is, I believe we will see a rallying of the Democratic troops that we haven't seen before.

[DemCam]

27. Why we need to get the primary over sooner

rather than later.

We need to solidify...and my support is solidifing as the attack machine start throwing his absurd smears at Kerry.

Them's fightin' words to this Democrat.

[diamond14]

13. bull...Kerry's supporters are enthusiastic, serious, hard-working,

and just because you haven't met any of us...seems everyone is making lots of ridiculous statements....

I joined Kerry's campaign here in OUR Nation's Capital, just after the holidays....IMO, there is much more enthusiasm here than in dean's campaign or elsewhere...

people everywhere seem amazed at Kerry's winning campaign, only because they haven't yet even noticed how hard we are working....


one thing that is always true of the reTHUGlicans...they always have lots of money, but they represent very FEW of Americans....because reTHUGlicans are such a 'little' number, they try to 'buy' votes, rather than work hard to get the votes....what I have seen up close and personal is that reTHUGlicans don't like to make phone calls, don't like to drive people to the polls, don't like to stand outside in the cold, outside polling places, don't like to make speeches at community centers, don't like at all to 'rub elbows' with us 'common folks'....but we do and we will and Kerry WILL win the White House...
because there is a great BIG group of people that ARE making that happen....


JFK takes Virginia...the SOUTH embraces Kerry...


go Kerry...beat bush*
http://www.JohnKerry.com

[Nazgul35]

15. he's not talking about Kerry supporters

he's talking about Dem voters....a big difference!

Again, there is a trend here that many seem willing to assume that Dems are just going to line up behind Kerry....and this is not true....

Can anyone make the argument that Reagan was a better choice than Mondale?

Come on folks, there is alot of hard work that is going to need to be done....and ignoring that fact is only going to cause problems that we just don't need....

There is a difference between Dems who are active and involved in the process and the average Dem who is completely uniformed about the process or the candidate...until everyone ackowledges this, we may be in for a surprise come Nov...

[diplomats]

17. Please see my post below

That 52 percent for Kerry includes a sizable number of independents, many more than Bush has.

[Nazgul35]

19. Again...

does everyone here think that once they say they support a candidate that they are locked in?

Do you not think that things could change between now and Nov. that could undermine that support?

To me it is even worse that independents support Kerry more as they are the least informed members of the voting populace and least dependable Re: turnout...

Why is no one willing to conceed that Kerry has alot of work to do....

Try it...it could go something like this:

"Yes that poll is a sign that we have alot of work to do! But I think that if we work really hard we can shore up the Dem support and win over the Independents, and here is how I believe we can do it..."

That would make me feel a little bit more confident about our chances going into the general election than this blind optimism that we will win cause Bush sucks!

[BeyondGeography]

18. So what's your remedy, nominate someone else?

NOTE: This is a reply to #13.

I'm having a difficult time following your "thinking" here. We've had record turnouts and most people have voted for Kerry. Other than a few die-hards whose candidates have been beaten by Kerry, there's nothing to suggest that the party's desire to dethrone Bush will NOT lead the base to coalesce around Kerry and his VP (who will energize even more people, whoever he/she is) and produce record turnout in the GE.

We're running against a hated extremist. Only extremist Dems (or those who can't get over the fact that their candidate has been thrashed by Kerry) seem to ignore what that means for Kerry's support come November.

[Nazgul35]

23. I'm not sure if this was

a response to me...as you say it is to #13....

But perhaps by a typo you contradict your self in your first paragraph:

Other than a few die-hards whose candidates have been beaten by Kerry, there's nothing to suggest that the party's desire to dethrone Bush will lead the base to coalesce around Kerry and his VP (who will energize even more people, whoever he/she is) and produce record turnout in the GE.

I think you meant "will not lead" so I will proceed from that assumption...

Again: and now I am really getting concerned because people do not seem to undertsnad what poitn I am making.....

What is a Democrat? That depends on who you are talking about...

1) Dem activits: those who are most active and most engaged in the process...I would suggest that that would include the bulk of people here at DU....

2) Primary voters: a largher segment of Dems who's activism includes voting in the primary minus those people from #1. Slightly more engaged in the process, but not as active in group number 1..

These two are the only one's who have shown any potential support for Kerry to date...

3) general election voters: Groups 1 and 2 plus those voters who only vote in the general election. The least informed and active members of the party...

It is group three, who comprise the vast bulk of those voters who we need to gain, hold and turnout in Nov.! This group includes Reagan Democrats. This group is the one most susceptible to campaign events and likability factors.....

This is the area where the support is thin and the most work needs to be done.....

I would at least like someone to acknowledge that this is true, rather than run around is if we have these voters in our pockets...because if this is the attitude that you are planning on running on, the probability of winning has already been greatly decreased...

[LiberalTexan]

26. I share your concern, nazgul

That's why I posted this. What was a tiny little paragraph in a long article about Bush's poll numbers is actually for me a very important and telling paragraph. Especially since it is already FEB 2004.

I think making any assumptions is like playing Russian roulette. I think people here just misinterpret the core message that you and I see: that there will be serious problems if the campaign is just run assuming that they've got certain votes locked up. If the Kerry campaign doesn't excite voters, people won't show up to the POLLS. Folks, THAT in itself will hurt us.

I'm not talking about DUers who know politics. I'm talking about your next door neighbor who doesn't know as much about what is going on as we do. What will be that person's motivation to go to the polls? Maybe the motivation will be because a supporter has called her and talked to her at length about John Kerry and why he'd make a good president. WHO is going to be that supporter that calls her if Kerry isn't exciting the BASE? These are the kinds of concerns that I have.

I'm so highly disturbed by the posts that say that it'll all work itself out because people don't want Bush. I don't care WHO the nominee is-- this will still be one of the most important aspects of this election. The republicans KNOW IT and they are already working hard on it! Those poll numbers show it already. Are we going to wait for August for the "oh shit" moment to hit us and realize this?

[diplomats]

16. Of course Bush's support is more passionate

He's down to 43 percent of the vote, which is barely more than his hardcore base! That's horrible for an incumbent. Kerry's support is obviously broader because it includes large number of nonDems. That's why he's at 52 percent.

[BootinUp]

22. The dems are still in a primary

What else do they expect?

[West Coast Democrat]

28. Bush should have stronger core support at this point

The primary process is still going on, #1...and #2, Bush has been leading (I use that term lightly) the country for the past 3 years.

[mw]

29. Yes, but anti-Bush support is very strong indeed

And that's what will win it.

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[Cheswick2.0]

30. gee big surprise

bush as bad as he is knows who his base is.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

31. Regarding Bush I think they meant "rabid" not passionate

But I also think that passionate support for Kerry is dependent on his message to the public once a nominee is actually chosen. I suspect polls told us the same thing prior to Bill Clinton taking the national stage.

[kenny blankenship]

33. will Kerry excite the base? NO

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