Musharraf Loses Ability to Maneuver After Pakistani Protests (Bloomberg)

[struggle4progress]

By Khalid Qayum and Anthony Spaeth

June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Four months of street protests have eroded Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's popular support, threatening his plans to get re-elected while keeping control of the military, the key to his power.

A constitutional amendment allowing the army chief of staff to also hold the presidency expires at the end of this year. The Pakistani leader, whose presidential term through an indirect election ends Nov. 15, is facing U.S. calls for a loosening of one-man rule, as well as the protesters' demands for a full restoration of democracy.

``Musharraf's stars are fading,'' Hassan Abbas, a fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, said in an e- mail. ``There is a cry for free, fair and transparent elections.'' ~snip~

While Musharraf, 63, may decide to work with one of the country's political parties to regain the popular support he had when he seized power in 1999, he has yet to do so. Meanwhile, ``the U.S. is repeating the same mistake it did in Iran,'' said Ahsan Iqbal, information secretary for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, one of the country's two most popular parties. ~snip~

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aeQiogldd1vk&refer=india

[upi402]

1. This could get very ugly folks

It's been bothering me a lot.
At least global warming is gradual.

[poverlay]

2. If Musharraf falls it could get extremely ugly. The potential domino effect is truly chilling...n/t

[TeamJordan23]

3. If it goes back to democratic elections, an extreme religious party will not win the Presidency

Contrary to media coverage and religious protests, the extreme religious parties do not have much clout in the majority of the country.

[upi402]

4. Thank you.

I have very little info from our media, of course.
I used to have to go to a uni poli-sci library to follow things like E Timor. Back when I could make time...

I sure do hope you're right.

[The Magistrate]

5. The Problem With That Analysis, Sir

Is that such parties do have a good footing in two provinces in the northeast of the country, where they won control of local offices. Civil war is far more likely where a political divide coincides with a geographic one, so that a political faction can view itself as having a base area, potentially independent from the central authority. Civil war, or at least revolution, is also more likely where the minority party is well armed, and views victory as both a sacred duty, and a thing that their diety will ensure if they make a sufficiently pleasing effort. Should such a thing be commenced, numbers will not be the deciding factor, but rather ferocity. The people will acquiesce to the side they fear the most.