Obama may outraise HRC by a whopping $9 million in the second quarter

[draft_mario_cuomo]

If this turns out to be true, wow. We will likely have a new front-runner (with all the special scrutiny that comes with it. Be careful what you wish for Obamanians ;) ).

==But the top race-within-the-race is between Obama and Clinton. Obama fell just shy of the Democratic front-runner last time, but there’s been a growing expectation he’ll surpass Clinton this quarter. Ambinder says he could beat the New York senator by as much as $9 million. Clinton's political fortunes have been rising lately — the word "inevitable" is being tossed around again by some pundits — but a comfortable Obama win in the money race could bring that to a halt. ==

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/06/22/politics/purehorserace/main2968327.shtml

[BeyondGeography]

1. You mean the daily proctological exams will intensify?

I doubt it.

[ProgressiveAmPatriot]

22. You beat me to the punch n/t

[rufus dog]

2. great

$ brings the ability to get the message out.

[TeamJordan23]

3. This is prolly a Clinton leak to downplay her expectations. nt

[BeyondGeography]

5. Yep; I'd be surprised if it's even close to a $9 million differential

[mckeown1128]

9. I really believe that these

claims that Obama is going to out raise Clinton are false and are being leaked in order to leave people disappointed when Obama is close or a little behind Clinton. I wish it would be true but I highly doubt it. Obama has wonderful fundraising skills but Clinton is the establishment candidate and will get the cash that goes with that title.

[babylonsister]

4. I have no favorite yet, but good luck! nt

[illinoisprogressive]

6. Mark Amblier thinks it could go as high as 35

[JeffR]

7. I like Obama, or at least I think I do

and I'm adult enough to accept that money makes the political world go 'round.

Having said that, I find this depressing, disheartening and more than a little revolting.

And he can "beat" Clinton by $100 million for all I care. I want ideas and ideals, and really don't give two fucks who has raised more money.

[mckeown1128]

8. Well said...

It is supposed to be about ideas. It makes me sick that money makes or breaks a campaign.

[Eurobabe]

34. Here, here!

well said Jeff. :toast:

[nevergiveup]

10. Money is nice

but Hillary has the connections and a great majority of the old time establishment behind her including one x-president. Every day there is another Democrat endorsing her. Obama will win only if all those that don't like Hillary and those who don't think she can win the general election unite behind him and all the money in the world can't make this happen.

[jefferson_dem]

11. But...Obama has been endorsed by...

...Freddy Krueger! That's gotta count for something.

http://www.eonline.com/gossip/planetgossip/detail/index.jsp?uuid=32677c1a-8864-4929-bd4a-0b449cd10106

[Ethelk2044]

12. It is time for the old time machine to move on.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

27. Meet the new machine, same as the old machine nt

[Ethelk2044]

13. He will win by registering new voters and getting them to cast

ballots early.

[SaveElmer]

14. The same exact thing...

Every candidate down in the polls says...

Something to hang onto I guess...

[Bullet1987]

17. Clinton isn't the frontrunner because of her money...and most likely the MSM

will continue to call her the frontrunner. She is the frontrunner because of her name and the political machine backing her (former President). All this will prove is that Obama has a much stronger grassroots and netroots campaign than she does and that the idea of him fading is laughable at best. He will be in this until the end.

[SaveElmer]

18. She is the frontrunner...

Because she is the most popular Democrat in the Presidential field...

Funny how Obama support is grassroots, but Hillary's is machine...Pretty big machine at 43% of Democratic voters...

[Bullet1987]

20. She is the frontrunner because most people know who she is...

not because she's the most popular. Which actually, the polls deny. The polls actually show that Obama is the most popular.

[SaveElmer]

21. Cite your sources...

In fact, Hillary is not only the top First choice among Democratic voters, she is also the top second choice...

Meaning her margin increases when measured head to head against either Obama or Edwards....

The fact is plain...she is the most popular Democrat running for President...but if supporters want to continue to believe otherwise...fine by me...will make getting the nomination all the easier...

[ProgressiveAmPatriot]

23. Cite your sources

I would be interested to see the polling that says she is number two choice of Obama and Edwards supporters. What I think the previous poster meant is that very few people don't know who Clinton is, and even fewer don't have an opinion. Whereas fewer people know who Obama is, and fewer people have a negative view of him. So for instance in March (I'm sorry I can't find a newer comparison of this, but someone at the DU certainly can) http://www.time.com/time/2007/election_index/ 95% of voters knew who Clinton was, but only 46% of those people viewed her favorably. 69% of voters knew who Obama was and 52% viewed him favorably. The point being that Clinton has much bigger name recognition, a higher profile, and is a more polarizing figure. Obama has room to gain in name recognition, has lower negatives, and those negatives aren't as firm. I would like to see newer numbers, but I think these numbers generally show what I am saying.

[SaveElmer]

25. We are talking about Democratic voters...

And the poll you cited is all voters...

Among Democratic voters she is the number one choice and the top second choice...you can look at many of the polls that have been done of the primary campaign over the last several months...many of them include head to head comparisons which demonstrate this fact...

[ProgressiveAmPatriot]

26. Again, I would like you to point to a specific set of polls

However, I think you need to take all polls with a grain of salt. It's still a long ways out. As many have pointed out, Lieberman had the lead at this point last time around. Too many polls are using 30%-50% of the electorate for their Democratic Primary polls (using 50% of the electorate is like saying 100% of people vote primaries), rather than the 20% who actually show up. This favors Clinton with name recognition. A second thing to keep in mind about all polling is that because younger voters, like myself, increasingly have cell phones and no land lines, we aren't being polled because cell phones aren't in the system. Almost 12% of adults have no land lines. 30% of 25-29 year olds have no land lines. Obama has been strongest among this demographic, so this would hurt him in polling. This also hurts any Democrat in a head to head match with Republicans as Democrats do better with young people.

Polls have to be read carefully and taken with a grain of salt.

[CTLawGuy]

36. Just like they all loved president Lieberman in 2003

when he was way up 6 months before a single vote was cast.

[TeamJordan23]

16. Obama is winning SC, very close in Iowa and NH.

If he wins SC and either Iowa/NH, he will have the momentum. Remember, in 2004, Kerry rode the momentum to a win.

[Tellurian]

19. Great! Kerry is the benchmark for winning the WH!

Good for you! Another 'pearl' of Wisdom from Team Jordan!

First Rule of Logic:

When you're in a hole, the first thing to do is:

STOP DIGGING!

[TeamJordan23]

24. It has nothing to do with Kerry, its about political history. Maybe u should research Bill's 1992

campaign run before talking nonsense. He used his NH 2nd place finish (where he became labeled as 'Comeback Kid' b/c he was not expected to do this well) as momentum to win many of the southern primaries.

Momentum is everything in politics.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

29. Bill lost to a senator from a neighboring state (Massachussetts)

No one has a regional advantage in NH this time so it will be a fair fight. Iowa, is another story, as I mentioned earlier (HRC also has Illinois roots).

[karynnj]

31. Last time I looked, there were 2 neighboring candidates in 2004

Vt borders BOTH VT and MA.

The history given is the logic in the entire Making of the President series. In 2004, Kerry did get momemtum and was seen giving a very enthusiastic speech when he won Iowa and NH respectively. He then won 5 of the 7 states on the first multi-state day. Whether or not people like it, Kerry had a very good primary campaign.

In 2008, things are stacked so tight, that guessing the impact is impossible. You clearly could not get the leisurely examination of how candidates handle being the front runner.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

28. He's never lead in his neigbhoring state

For some reason he just has never gotten much traction in Iowa, given that he is from a neigbhoring state, the media market overlap in part of Iowa, and his regional advantage. He does seem to have a better shot in NH, though, although he is closer to 3rd in NH than he is to 1st. ;)

[SaveElmer]

15. Old news...and something denied by the Obama camp...

And of course we know they would never mislead the media...

But Ambinder's predictions are not based on actual numbers, they are guesstimates...

Obama's campaign came out pretty quick and said the story was incorrect...

[Atmosphere]

30. doesn't mean he'll be the front runner.

He's probably not getting the bid, so what's going to happen to all that money ?

[Herman Munster]

32. i don't know

he may get to keep it for his senate re-election, but most likely i would assume he would give it to the DNC for the presidential and congressional races

[Ethelk2044]

35. He probably will get the bid. If so what will the others do with that money

[bigdarryl]

33. Total BULLSHIT the Clinton camp are inflating Obama's numbers on purpose so...

when the figures come out that Obama didn't do better than Clinton the Clinton camp can claim some sort of victory.