Crystal Ball: Kerry Poised for Electoral Landslide, Rove "Terrified."

[WiseMen]

Today on CNN, Larry Sabato of “Crystal Ball” predicts the dirtiest Presidential campaign in U.S. History.

“The White House is not just skittish. They are terrified” What is happening with Kerry surge is unprecedented and was not anticipated by Rove.

“Looking at state by state numbers, if the election were held today Kerry would win in a landslide.”
--------

From new Crystal Ball Report:

Political Force equals Popular Mass times Electoral Acceleration: KERRY WOULD DEFEAT BUSH IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD NOW. It's not just the slew of national polls showing Kerry ahead.

Look at our old Crystal Ball friend, the Electoral College map (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm)

Our soundings suggest that the 2000 Blue-and-Red pattern is re-emerging, but with a few strategic gains for the Democrats, such as Arkansas, Ohio, and West Virginia. When added to Gore's 2000 states, this gives Kerry a winning 295 Electoral Votes. Also, if Kerry chooses wisely for Vice President, he can add the votes of a usually Republican state. The best bet here would NOT be John Edwards, who would probably lose North Carolina for the ticket, but Senator Evan Bayh--a Democrat so popular he would likely bring normally GOP-tilting Indiana into the "D" column.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/updates_04-02-11.htm



------------------------------------------
Larry J. Sabato, "probably the most quoted college professor in the land," (Wall Street Journal), is director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, where he brings his years of academic study together with an equally long career as a political analyst and commentator.

[molly]

1. I like Edwards - I like Clark - I like whomever

can give us back our country!

[Renew Deal]

4. You nailed it

:toast:

[RogueTrooper]

85. and Dean's language

Take Back America ;)

[NV1962]

88. Amen to that!

:pals:

[Frances]

2. I think Edwards has earned a place in Kerry's cabinet

but Bush is such an evil man that I would like for Kerry to choose a vice-president who will help him the most in electoral votes.

I also think Clark should have a place in Kerry's administration as should Bob Graham.

I'd like to see them all campaigning with Kerry the way Powell campaigned with Bush.

[molly]

5. I think every candidate deserves a cabinet position

[w4rma]

25. I agree, and he has a much more national presence than that other guy (nt)

[bushwakker]

33. Gephardt brings the most politically

i believe he is the best choice for vp - some here would not be happy but strategically he's the best choice.

[Renew Deal]

3. I have been saying that the pukes are terrified for about a week.

They do not like us uniting at all let alone this early. They thought it would be a big nasty dirty fight for months. Kerry will be the one before Rove and Co. will be ready to deal with it. They must be shitting in their pants.

[polpilot]

38. Oh yeah a pro-war demo against a pro-war incumbent with $100 million.

Must be frightening!

Dean '04...

[MoonRiver]

49. Also, the size of our primary and caucus turnouts, plus the fact

that Kerry is demonstrating he has huge appeal across the country's regions is giving them fits.

[WiseMen]

63. They really thought everything was under control: Economy, Iraq, Dean

[Fovea]

6. By June

a syphilitic monkey could roll over Bush in an election.

I predict that he will be so wrapped up in legal problems that
he will drop out of the race in July/August.

[TheDonkey]

7. This is going to be an election to remember.

and the most important one of our lifetimes.

[sistersofmercy]

10. Yes, it is

I predict bush* loses in a landslide, a totally humiliating defeat. I don't care how much money he's raised, we're framing the debate this time and we're not going to tolerate the standard GOP attacks. They want a fight, they've got it.

[bobthedrummer]

22. Absolutely

eom

[WiseMen]

67. What a year, What a fight to come.

[Tinoire]

8. The corporate media is going to have to be less transparent than this

Pro-NAFTA vs Pro-NAFTA

Pro-war vs Pro-war

Pro-occupation vs pro-occupation

"I was misled" vs "I was misled"

Yep. The GOP must be quaking in their boots as we speak!

[The Magistrate]

11. The Enemy Knows Better Than That, Ma'am

The criminals of the '00 Coup know well the worth of being in office, and rightly fear being out of office.

They know that if they fail to secure election to ofice this year, their mis-deeds will be brought to the glaring light of day by criminal investigation, which will be the best tool available for a Democratic executive faced by a Republican Congress, as will likely be the case.

They understand the depth of hatred animating our Party, and the cold resolve of its rank and file to see them broken and disgraced before the country.

It is vitally important to deal a resounding blow to the worst elements of reaction, to strip them of the aura of victory and inevitability, to break them into the dust of defeat and strike dismay into their followers among the people. This is essential if there is to be any hope of slowing and reversing the drift of our polity towards the right.

Let no one withold their hand from this fight, but let all strike and strike hard and home against the foe!

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[sistersofmercy]

13. Excellent post

As usual. You nailed it! :kick:

[SpaceCatMeetsMars]

52. "Cold resolve" is a great description

The mood at meet-ups, events and at my town caucus are something very interesting to observe. People are determined! They make out on TV like Democrats are wild and crazy lunatics, but really everyone is very practical, united and set for battle.

[WiseMen]

61. Say it again!

[frank frankly]

83. whoa

exquisite

i can see more now.

thank you!

[DrFunkenstein]

12. Are you talking Kerry Vs. Dean?

Dean wants to scrap NAFTA?

Dean opposed Biden-Lugar?

Dean wants to withdraw troops faster than Kerry?

Dean didn't say, "Well, I tend to believe the President...I believe we were misled?"

Nice to put things into such vague, binary terms as to be virtually meaningless, but you fail even on those terms.

[polpilot]

16. It will be a nightmare trying to CONTRAST Kerry to Bush. EVEN TODAY

nobody can 'translate' Kerry's position on the war. However I will try: Voting for the war was the right thing to do and it was best for America, however, I didn't vote for the war I voted to give the president the right to form an international coalition and I'm a foreign policy expert but was confused and mislead by the Iraq situation so I was for the war for the Americans that are for the war and I'm against the war for those Americans against the war. I'm for the war. I'm against the war. I hope I've made myself clear. Bring it on.

Dean '04...Anti-Iraqi WAr..Anti-Established....The DLC's most hated candidate in '04...

Am i clear?

[Frances]

18. I don't think the public

will hold it against Kerry that he voted for the resolution. Most of the public (excluding me and other DUers) saw through Bush, so they too feel they were "misled."

[KC21304]

19. Clearly the same thing I am hearing from the Gop

but not what I have heard from John Kerry. In order for people to hear John they have to get their head out of the sand and sometimes old habits die hard.

[polpilot]

37. Floor's open: Explain why Kerry DIDN"T vote AGAINST the IWR &

explain why Kerry DIDN'T denounce the pro-war DLC on the proposed war.

Dean '04...

[The Magistrate]

40. You Know Perfectly Well, Sir

The invasion would have been pressed regardless of the Senate vote. The executive has the authority to deploy troops, and the authority to commit them to combat with a period of sixty days free hand before the action must be justified before Congress.

The votes to halt the measure did not exist. Several southern and western Senators were well known to be prepared to vote for the measure, and no pressure could be brought against them sufficient to alter that intention. Professionals do not make death-stands; that is a prerogative of amatuers only, and among the reasons they do not last long in the trade.

Why you imagine a Democratic Party figure is required to denounce a faction in the Party simply because you do not like it, or he is no "real" Democrat, and cannot stand against republicans on that account, is beyond me. Such an attack would have been pointless at the time, and remains largely pointless today.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[welshTerrier2]

47. with all due respect ...

first, let me say that i thought your first post in this thread was eloquent ...

but on this post, i'm not so sure i agree with you ... i'm supporting both kerry and kucinich ... but i think kerry's IWR vote was just plain wrong ...

i'm uncomfortable with your professionals vs. amateurs description ... to the extent that you argue for pragmatism, i have no problem ... but this seemed to go beyond that ... while i appreciate that some might not consider the following to be a valid analogy, let's consider this hypothetical:

a bunch of bullies in a schoolyard are beating up on some kid ... in all probability you are not strong enough to stop them by using force ... what do you do ?? it seems that rather than "speaking truth to power", those democrats who voted to empower bush helped get in a few punches on the poor kid themselves ... pragmatic ?? i guess so ... fitting in with the crowd ... no doubt about it ... but it's hard to see how this demonstrated either good judgment or any kind of morality ...

we were wrong to invade a sovereign nation that neither attacked nor even threatened us ... we were wrong to empower PNAC'ers to begin their adventures of global conquest ... we were wrong to alienate our allies and weaken the U.N.

it's true that Kerry's vote would not have changed that ... but to label it a "death stand" seems to be off the mark ... i see it as showing leadership and depth of character and values, ... there's no question that you have to know when to pick your battles ... but something of this magnitude, with more than 500 dead Americans, a bankrupt treasury, and a world turned against us, seemed worth standing up for and doing the right thing ...

[polpilot]

66. 'do not last long in the trade' Great summary and right on target.

Dean '04...Not a member of 'the trade'

[The Magistrate]

82. But He Is A Member Of The Trade, Sir

Amatuers are not elected Governor, not anywhere. He has simply calculated to trim his sails at a particular tack to catch a particular breeze he thought could waft him to a goal he had in mind. There is, indeed, no profounder dis-honesty in political life than the proclaimation of oneself as an "outsider" set against the "Capitol Insiders" one is striving to become chief of. The following they attract by strength of that nonsense is a standing vindication of Mr. Barnum's famous maxim concerning the rate at which the gullible are born....

"Can't nobody here play this game?"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[sadiesworld]

9. I believe Rove and his media flunkies originally pushed Kerry ...

to stop Clark... but it got away from them.

[Sensitivity]

14. Welcome to DU. And Very Very Funny. I missed this secret media activity

[Johnyawl]

20. What nonsense

In November when it was Dean Dean Dean all the time, Rove & his minions were doing dances of joy at the thought of opposing Dean. And why shouldn't they? The last Democratic candidate that build his campaign around being anti-war lost 48 states. Deans complete lack of experience of anything to do with foreign policy, military, or security issues would have let Bush run comfortably as the "wartime President". Rove would have used that 200 million dollar war chest to minimize domestic & economic concerns, and pushed terrorterrorterrorfearfearfear. They would have painted his opposition to the Iraqi war as craven cowardice, rendering him unfit to lead this country in these troubled times. The ad with a skier coming down a slope with that big Dean grin on his face, overlayed with images of American troops at war would be the lasting image of the 2004 campaign, joining Dukakis in a tank as the defining image of a losing campaign.

I like Howard Dean, I think he's added some much needed excitement to this years campaign, and helped to get it off to a good start. But he and Edwards have always been the weakest candidates to throw against Bush (does anybody else remember Ari Fleischer's comment the first time Edwards name was mentioned as a possible opponent? "Bring me the ambulance chaser!" was his rather gleeful comment.)

The fact that Kerry rolled both over so easily proves how weak they would have been against bush & rove.

I (obviously) think Kerry's the best man to tackle bush, but I'm not one of the political neophytes running around this board talking about how bush is "toast", how we have this in the bag, etc, etc,. When you're up against people this dirty, who have as much to lose as they do, there is no "sure thing". You have to run the horse with the best track record, and the ONLY candidate that we have in this race that has consistently over the years since 1971 survived the attacks from the rw is John Kerry.

[bushwakker]

35. Nice post

Dean had very little chance v AWOL - none after the scream. I like Edwards (as does seemingly everyone I talk to) - but I think he needs more seasoning. I don't know if Kerry can beat AWOL, frankly I'm skeptical, but he's the best choice to give it a run - anyone who says differently isn't being realistic.

[Sensitivity]

69. I am shocked. So many brilliant posters in the Kerry support guard

[WiseMen]

95. We all need our fantasies

15. poll in New York

Daily News yesterday said that if the election were held today something like 88% would vote for Kerry over Bush in NYC. Admittedly NYC is a strange place, but 88%!!!!

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/164130p-143824c.html

edit-- I guess it's slightly deceptive ...New york DEMOCRATS

[liberalpragmatist]

23. Actually, that's accurate

It's really quite stunning, but in all the major cities, Gore defeated Bush with more than 80% of the vote. I think I read (in The Emerging Democratic Majority) that NYC went something like 85 for Gore, 8 for Bush and the remainder for Nader. DC, of course, was 90% Gore, 5% Bush and 5% Nader, and Chicago was similar:

[aldian159]

27. Chicago was 80-19

and cook county (with Chicago and the first ring of suburbs, mostly Democrat, the largest county where half the state lives) went for Gore 69-29

In order for bush to win IL using these numbers, he would have to get 65% of the rest of the state. Bloomington, Champaign, and East St. Louis are more and more Dem, so ain't gonna happen.

[ButterflyBlood]

34. NYC was something like:

Gore - 77%
Bush - 20%
Nader - 3%

70-80% for Gore was pretty standard for most major cities. But I belive the only city where he got over 90% was Detroit. He got around 86% or something in DC.

[Lori Price CLG]

59. So, this year Detroit will vote approx. 99 % for the Dem. candidate.

That is, unless the Diebold crew steps in.
:)-Lori

[mike from ri]

17. wisemen: was it you who predicted the dean demise?

it was somone w the ariz flag symbolm

[WiseMen]

24. If You Refer to "Dean Will Not Be the Dem Nominee" Post. Well Yes.

[West Coast Democrat]

21. Of course Kerry will win in a landslide. Average folks hate Bush!

I just learned of a brand new Bush-hater today. A friend of my boyfriend had been on the fence during the 2000 election, became a Bush* supporter after 9-11, and over the last few months has come to absolutely DESPISE Bush*.

This guy has long considered himself a libertarian of sorts, rather than identifying with any party. I don't think he even bothered to vote in 2000, but he's sure planning to vote this year!!!

[oasis]

26. Kerry's presidential campaign will be a huge help to Dems in congress.

Only the strongest Republican districts will be safe from the Kerry tidal wave.

[Sensitivity]

90. Kerry doesn't have the activist he needs to campaign in those states

[WiseMen]

28. With $Trillions at Stake, A Really Massive Covert Operation Has Begun.

I personally am not sure what steps Dems can take to survive the
waves of attack to come.

I am quite distressed at the naivete of those who in the
Dem camp that have become pawns of the Repub operation and
believe that we are still playing primary campaign games.

[shawmut]

29. I'm confused and a little worried

the map shows AWOL would win with 274 electoral votes based on states either leaning Bush or solid red. Kerry has 264. Shouldn't states like Oregon, Iowa and Wisconsin be solidly on our side - those were states that Dukakis won in '88. We can't have West Virginia leaning Bush either. States such as Ohio and Missouri need to be in play, not solid red. The bright spot on that map is New Hampshire (a 2000 AWOL state) leaning Kerry. what am i missing here?

[WiseMen]

30. That is a Forecast Model "Assuming Highly Competitve" Contest

Today, Kerry is winning 295 votes and it could be over 300 with
a V.P. pick which guaranteed another state.

[bushwakker]

36. Gephardt will bring MO

that's why he should be the veep choice. he will also be a great help in the industrial midwest.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[bushwakker]

32. Take a deep breath

this is a marathon not a sprint. There will be some very ruff times ahead.

[TheStateChief]

41. Exactly...

I have NOT been a Kerry supporter - I'll say that upfront - but once he is the nominee I will be supporting him 100%. But I am concerned that expectations are getting over-inflated and the first time Kerry faces some adversity people (including the media) will jump ship. If Kerry doesn't let himself be defined by his past votes - which isn't going to be easy considering how dirty Bush is going to run this thing and the amount of money they have to spend - he WILL win, but my concern is that he has not been vetted and when people start seeing ads with him advocating past positions it will be difficult for him to overcome.

So, yes, I agree, there will be tough times ahead and no, all this talk of landslides does not make me feel better about the road that lays ahead of us.

[charlie]

39. Rove "terrified"... *snort*

I've seen that claim so often, you'd think Rove greases his pants everytime one of our candidates tosses a harsh look at him.

This crew:

Stole the 2000 election. As a bonus, wrecked public trust in our court of last resort's capacity for impartiality.

Gamed national energy markets, wrecking California's budget and businesses for financial gain -- in broad daylight.

Engineered a recall of the governor of our largest state (a supposed Democratic stronghold, BTW), replacing him with a stooge they've planted to settle claims against Enron for pennies against the dollar.

Defied precedent and procedural protections to gerrymander state districts set in census years in Texas, Colorado, and Ohio.

Looted the treasury and incurred monstrous debts. Coupled with their protection of white collar criminals, ruined America's blue chip reputation as a market for investment. Put value of the dollar in freefall -- who knows how low it'll go.

Are neck deep in the voting irregularities (theft) caused by electronic voting machinery.

Neglected their duty to protect the mainland and exploited public fears after the attack to accelerate and thwart oversight of their predations.

***Iraq War***

Those are just a fraction of the bullet point highlights.

Bushco is audacious, reckless, unprincipled, and relentless. They aren't afraid of any of our candidates.

Our guy must be someone who has no illusions about this being politics as usual, knows that he's dealing with madmen. We've got to be prepared to kick him in the ass from behind if he shows signs of flagging or weakness. Whoever it is, he must do whatever it takes to win. You know they will.

[WiseMen]

43. I AGREE. Sabato said "Terrified." They were a little thrown, BUT

it is now clear that they have swung into action and Dems are falling
for their ploys as could be predicted.

However, my information is that the White House has been quite thrown to see Bush go from 25 point over Dean to 9 points behind Kerry. GW is likely still pissed at his folks and could make some stupid mistake.

My concern is not Bush or Rove. But non-governmental factions with
enormous stakes in things staying the same.

[charlie]

50. A lead at this stage

is no whoop. Dukakis led Bush by 15 points after he'd vanquished the other contenders. The real, truly arduous, job is preserving that lead.

As to Dems "falling for their ploys" -- you're convinced of Kerry's fitness for the candidacy. That is, you're sure Kerry is THE ONE and no other will do. You're a partisan. Of course, the rest of us are too.

You're confident that the day will never come that charges from the odious Drudge turn out to be true. But if say, Howard Dean was the frontrunner, you'd demand that a rumor that he boinked a bevy of nurses (made up, hold your fire Dean guys), be discounted to your satisfaction, wouldn't you? After all, our fate, the fate of the nation, against this malevolent gang depend on it. Right? You wouldn't accept protestations that "Howie's NOT that kind of guy and you're spreading rightwing trash to suggest otherwise!!" would you? I wouldn't.

So quit taking it personally. Not everyone nervous about Kerry rumors is gunning for Kerry. Some of us want to be reasonbly sure that the presumptive frontrunner can't be KO'd by something as banal as marital infidelity.

[oasis]

45. good points. We can't afford to let complacency creep up on us.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

42. Bayh? Another DLC stooge.

Other than that, his crystal ball is in pretty good shape at this point. Kerry does have a chance (at this point) if he grows a bit of spine. A doubtful speculation given his IWR vote and recent waffling on other issues.

Looks as if I'll be voting Green so this election will be more of a spectator sport as the two pro-war candidates try to prove who's more patriotic and compassionate by chucking crap at each other.

[The Magistrate]

44. That Would Be A Poor Choice, Sir

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[flpoljunkie]

64. Bayh&Lieberman honorary co-chairs Comm to Liberate Iraq!

PNAC offshoot! No, thank you!

[Padraig18]

46. That map shows Kerry LOSING 274-264, btw.

I see no 'landslide'.

[WiseMen]

48. That is the prev. Nov. Forecast. Read Note. Kerry breaking predictions

New numbers show that Kerry could be making unexpected strategic gains in Arkansas, Ohio, and West Virginia and could win more based
on V.P. choice.

[Padraig18]

51. I read the fucking footnote!

It assumes the rosiest god-damned scenario I've ever seen. :eyes:

[charlie]

54. Heh, true

Predictions 9 months out aren't worth crap anyway, so the sooth-sayer can be extravagant as he wants to be:

KERRY WOULD DEFEAT BUSH IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD NOW

Duh. A perusal of Yahoo News could've told me that.

Little over a month ago, Sabato said Dean was all but unstoppable and Kerry was a longshot. As did we all. We just didn't get quoted by CNN as expert electoral opinion.

[Capn Sunshine]

53. It doesn't take a crystal ball

to figure out who "Rove wants"

Talk about McGovern is focused on the wrong guy.
OK ,maybe Dole.

[maxanne]

55. bwaaahahahahahaha

Since when do we believe everything the media/Rove tell us?

It is terribly disheartening to see seasoned political junkies just spoon down whatever the corporaterovemedia message of the day is. First it was the GOP wants Dean to be the candidate. People here on DU, who would ordinarily be skeptical as hell of what the GOP message is spooned that down like ice cream. Now they're telling us Rove is scared? HA! They can eat Kerry and his undistinguished Bush supporting record for breakfast.

Put your tinfoil hats back on people, the alien rays are wreaking havoc around here! :tinfoilhat:

[arewethereyet]

56. but the election will be held today will it

and won't it be a great motivator for the GOP ?

Quit looking for excuses to not prepare for a lot of work from now till November.

That silly AWOL campaign predictably failed as have all the other silver bullets.

There are no easy routs to victory.

[WiseMen]

57. An enormous hearts-and-minds Dem grassroots effort will be required

to build any kind of reliable bulwark against comming onslaught.

Will Dems face the challenge? Who knows?

But, aside from that daunting reality, the Crystal Ball tells us why
there is excitement in both Parties about want is happenning
in the electorate.

After all, the Carter/Ford contest is the only time in the last
half century that a contender has so challenged the incumbent at this
stage of a Presidential contest.

[arewethereyet]

58. thanks for appreciating that there WILL be an onslought

and I hope we dems are damn well prepared !

[West Coast Democrat]

60. The first step in winning is believing that WE CAN WIN!

And right now Democrats are believing that we can win, which is a huge shift from a few months ago.

[arewethereyet]

68. maybe for you, not for me

I'd have to say the the first step is rolling up the shirtsleeves and hoping that the GOP faithful get complacent.

[Kahuna]

62. State by state? Groovy!

I hope it will last.

[Octafish]

65. Kick to the pants of the BFEE!

:kick:BFEE

[stickdog]

70. Republicans say, "We always lie."

Should we believe them?

[MoonRiver]

71. Depends on what we want to happen.

[Jokinomx]

72. Latest polls

Thanks for the great moral boost. I have just spent the last week trying to get my "Neo" Sisters to see GW for what he is. But they are bent on that he is a "Good Christian". That all those bad things he did in the past was before he became born again. I am just about ready to pull my hair out. They actually think he is a moral person. So Thanks again..I needed to see that we have only a few more months of him in my life.

[MoonRiver]

73. Welcome to DU Jokinomx!

Take heart, I have family members who are just as incorrigible!! They'll come around, or not, but they're still family!

[WiseMen]

74. If Rove had a "Real" scandal. He wouldn't be so busy pushing slime now.

[blondeatlast]

75. No offense, but perhaps we should revisit this post come November.

The "surprise" will come in September; mark my words. October won't give Rove enough time to undo the damage. It's gonna be dirty as hell, too.

I truly, truly hope that you are right, though.

[Padraig18]

76. What is the point in kicking these moldy, old posts?

This one had not had a reply in 2 days, until a few moments ago!

[Joe the Revelator]

77. Because good news should be repeated nt

[Padraig18]

78. I'm sure the folks who took time to write NEW stuff agree.

:eyes:

[Joe the Revelator]

79. I still don't see whats wrong..

with topping a thread that says that the probable democratic canidate will whip bush in a GE

[Padraig18]

81. Try this on for size:

No one has cared enough about this thread for TWO DAYS to even bother posting to it, until today, when the author did so himself. I wonder how many pages back it was when it was kicked, and it moved at least one NEW post on to page 2, where it is likely to die. I'm sure that whoever took the time and effort to write that NEW post really appreciates having this moldy, old post being kicked.

:eyes:

[Tinoire]

80. Propaganda. You lived through this once before.

Note the similarities.

[shivaji]

84. I can not visualize any scenario under which Bush can win in 2004

[Bucky]

92. Then I think you lack perspective in what you can visualize.

I appreciate your honesty. But with all Dues, Bush can win and very well may. Given all the crap he's done and all the screw ups and all the corruption in this regime, he's still running at a 45+ approval/reelect rate (with the usual caveats on the prefix "re" in the word reelect) before his campaign and smear machines are running in high gear.

There is still a chance that employment rates could dramatically pick up. There is still a chance that the army could nab bin Laden. Unlike Saddam, bin Laden has been a real danger to us and there would be a significant bounce from getting the guy who killed 2800 innocents. We still don't know how the gay marriage issue is going to play out--trust me, dumb as it all sounds to us, that is a real vote-swinger. It will play in Ohio, West Virginia, New Mexico, Florida, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and a number of other swing states that we might otherwise pick up.

The electoral college math is also working against us. States Bush carried in 2000 have gained 7 EC votes. States Gore carried have lost 7. Because we ran up high vote totals in California and New York, this was obfuscated, but several of the states Gore won in 2000 he won by razor thin margins. A few more scared voters in the wake of a new code orange, and any of those should tip to Bush too.

And finally, there is the nightmare scenario. Actually, it's based on us getting good news. If employment rates creep back into the economy and there is a new terrorist attack which we are able to successfully able to prevent due in any small part to Patriot Act powers, the president will see a huge upswing in support. Plan on seeing that happen in mid to late October.

Bush likely to lose? I don't think so. We have our work cut out for us and only a fool thinks otherwise.

[WiseMen]

86. Bob Dornan on HardBall totally looses it over contrast between Kerry and

Bush. I think there is something about have to face a war hero
that causes real unease for the republicans. Bob Dornan
was almost in spasms conflating John Kerry and Bob Kerrey and charging
Kerry as a war criminal.

Guess they are going to have to calm down and keep paying the
smear masters.

[charlie]

89. Bob Dornan

Would go batshit in a argument over which way the toilet paper should hang. That berserker isn't a barometer of Republican fear, he's always redlined.

[Nicholas_J]

87. The proof of the far of Kerry

Lies in the Drudge allegations, and the Murdoch attempt to make them appear true in his overseas papers.

[WiseMen]

91. Rassmusen Poll taken During Scandal Showed Bush Wins: Little Smear Big

effects

[Catherine Vincent]

93. This reflects more on Bush than Kerry,

because Bush* is no damn good!

[WiseMen]

94. Bush was doing worse in Iraq and Economy when Dean was leading

But Dean always lagged Bush (even though "Un-named" Democrat did well). This really dissproves your theory.