Odds that either Clinton or Obama will be the nominee

[calteacherguy]

What are the odds that either Clinton or Obama will be the nominee, assuming that no as yet undeclared "dark horse" candidate enters the race?

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Looking at Intrade odds, it's theoretically about 78% but they include Gore

Gore is trading at slightly above 11%. Hillary and Obama about 78% combined, with Hillary at 50 and Obama at 28. Edwards is slightly over 5, which means he is a much bigger longshot than most DUers seem to realize. In another thread today I saw an estimate of 6/1 on Edwards. Well, the Intrade betting site (man-to-man wagering, not fixed odds) makes it closer to 19/1. The other candidates add up to about 5% total, or slightly less than that.

If we knew for certain that Gore were out, his 11% would be distributed elsewhere, almost all of it to Hillary and Obama. Edwards would receive a little bit. An estimate of about 88%, minus Gore, seems about right.

[calteacherguy]

4. Thanks! That's really interesting! nt

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Here's a link to Intrade

It's the political version of Tradesports. They have contracts available on every candidate. Every contract has a potential value of 100 total. For example, if you buy a contract at 20, it will return 80 profit, or 4/1. A good way to estimate current odds is half way between Bid and Ask. Those are the buyer and seller rates. So Obama with a current Bid of 26.5 and an Ask of 29.7 is trading at about 28. So that means he is only about a 5/2 underdog, theoretically 72% chance not to be the nominee and 28% yes.

Keep in mind these are representative of current mindset, the state of the race as evaluated by political gamblers at this point in time. They are not necessarily predictive.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[calteacherguy]

9. Thanks Awsi! Good to know if I'm ever in the mood to make a wager where to go. nt

[draft_mario_cuomo]

2. What were the odds on Kerry even a week before Iowa?

;)

[calteacherguy]

5. There is a much different dynamic in this race.

I don't think 04' is a useful comparison.

[sandnsea]

3. They'd both have to implode

Nobody is going to be able to take them out individually. It's one or the other, unless they destroy themelves.

[goodhue]

6. I voted under 25%, but I'm an optimist

[IndyOp]

12. Me, too! (n/t)

[earthlover]

8. If we knew how things were gonna happen....then why get involved? SARC

Obviously, there is some doubt. Because if things were actually predetermined we might as well do something else with our time.

Either Obama or Hillary could still run away with the nomination. Or both could lose. We will see.

If Gore or Clark enters the race, this might have a big impact or maybe not.

Edwards seems to be back in the field now, but he is doing well in Iowa so don't count him out either.

OK, my prediction....Edwards fades, Clark and Gore decide not to run, Obama and Hillary duke it out for awhile.....when it becomes apparent that Gore and Clark are not running Obama eventually moves ahead sometime during Winter. And never looks back. Obama gets the nomination, names Clark as his VP and wins in a landslide over Romney.

But, as to my confidence in my prediction, I voted <50% !

[robcon]

10. Hillary Clinton will be our next president.

I'm 95% sure.

[Dinger]

11. So We Can Skip The Primaries, Right?

So maybe a less snarky way to put this might be, "What role do the primaries have, in light of the insurmountable lead by the "Top Tier" Candidates?"
P.S. I'm gonna do a poll (I'm addicted to polls)

[robcon]

13. Don't skip the primaries.

I feel confident that my senator, Hillary Clinton, will win the nomination, and then the election. But by no means (and no one was suggesting it) do not cancel the primaries or nominating convention.