Who would be the toughest Republican opponent in 2008?

[BeyondGeography]

[Warren DeMontague]

1. Other: Ron Paul. Because despite the fact that he's pro-life and anti church separation,

he makes noises that could make him appealing to the great untapped libertarian-minded voting block that will run this country, once one party or the other figures out how many of them there are.

[lurky]

2. Ron Paul = Ross Perot?

He seems to be appealing to the same kind of crowd that liked Perot in '92. The difference is that he's not an independent, but is coming from within the GOP.

The frontrunners listed in the OP are all pretty weak IMO. Each has a nice gimmick and looks strong at first glance, but none of them hold up well under any kind of scrutiny. Will they actually get any kind of scrutiny? Who knows...

[Bullet1987]

3. And he doesn't have Perot's money by far...

but yea, there are plenty of Libertarians out there. Outside of Paul, who won't get the nomination because he's too anti-big business, I'd say Thompson because he's the only one the base seems to like right now. They really don't like Romney OR Guiliani that much, and McCain just screwed himself badly with the immigration thing. He's not getting the nomination...

[lurky]

5. If Thompson is the white knight who is

going to ride in and rescue them, then I think they are in a lot of trouble. He may get the nom, but he's a crusty old guy with health problems who married a girl years younger than his daughter. And what does he represent, aside from being on TV?

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I just can't take any of these guys that seriously as a threat.

[Warren DeMontague]

4. They've all got big problems. Rudy and McCain piss off the base

but they would probably fare better in the general- again, putting rest to the lie that the "values voter" runs the show.

[Ben Masel]

6. Matchup

The Ghoul runs best v Hillary, McCain v Edwards or Obama.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. No question, Giuliani

He expands the states where the GOP would be competitive. Suddenly we have to spend money in New York, and really worry about Pennsylvania and New Jersey and elsewhere. Plus, you don't automatically get all of the pro-choice vote. Giuliani also has the bullshit tough guy yet likable image, something that is very difficult to dent. Like Chris Matthews said on Monday, likability is very resilient. Even if someone really screws up, or you find out something about their past, if you are inclined to like them, then you still like them.

Thompson is a run of the mill Republican. It would be a standard base-oriented election, and in a cycle that wants to favor our side.

[silverback]

8. All weak.

Giuliani is seen by many as a (more) pro-war version of Hillary, other than dress size there really isn't much difference from a Republican POV.

Who exactly is going to vote for him?

McCain is sunk over amnesty, Paul will raise more money this quarter than he will, he's done.

Romney will carry Utah in the primaries but probably not much else, he's too slippery and he's in favor of an AWB, the kiss of death for a GOP candidate.

I personally really like Ron Paul, but the Republican party has always been hostile to the Jeffersonian tradition, going back to Lincoln they're authoritarian nationalists who employ Jeffersonian rhetoric to get votes. If there's ever a successful third party it'll be built around libertarianism but right now I think there's too many people who still believe statism can work if it's just managed properly, and too much anger at Republicans in general, for him to put together enough primary votes.

It's going to be Thompson, and Thompsons big weakness is he's too close to the Bush administration. He's a very shallow candidate who appeals to the ever shrinking portion of the Republican party who still believe in neoconservatism.

IF there's a major escalation and/or deterioration in the middle east between now and the primary, and it goes so badly there's a major change of heart that swings Republican support for the current foreign policy from the 60% or so it is today to 40%, that might change the whole calculus and if the Democratic candidate has to face Paul then we've got a real fight on our hands, and Obama is the candidate with the best chance to win it.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Ron Paul is a creation of progressive websites

Whatever the total number of sperm on this planet, Ron Paul has less than 1 in that many chance to win the GOP nomination. That's not even an exaggeration. Even if every other GOP candidate dropped dead a week or two before the first primary, they would fill the ballot with candidates who would crush Ron Paul.

I like the guy, in comparison to the others he's debating against. But let's not pretend he is even a minor factor. He does well in the debate polling only because progressives thrill to vote in those polls and slant them in favor of the least objectionable Republican.

[StudentsMustUniteNow]

19. You shouldn't be on this site if you are against "statism"

I suppose you believe corporations can't be coercive entities. :eyes:

[demokatgurrl]

27. Not only that, Giuliani will probably win the general election

so many gullible Dems to vote for him.

[whathappened]

10. none of the above

there all shit for brains , but what will it matter , jr. got elected some how and look what we got with him ,

[BlueManDude]

11. McCain - he's still the apple of the DC media's eye.

[Demeter]

12. The DLC!

They have defeated Democrats time and again.

[Gravel2008]

13. Hear hear!

I'd say the DLC is a bigger threat to us than any Republican.

[NoPasaran]

14. Zombie Reagan

Fortunately for us, the GOP hasn't had much luck in re-animating the Gipper.

[Bryan]

15. Right now, I'd say Romney

Unnervingly slick and photogenic, he projects the sort of numinous image of "strength" and "leadership" that Republican voters swoon over, and his corporate ties will go a long way in fundraising. I don't think his Mormonism is as much of a deal-killer with the fundie base as some people do; a Dubya-style PR offensive can take a lot of the edge off of that, and Romney is, IIRC, the only major R candidate who's still married to his first wife, so again, he looks the part.

[JohnLocke]

16. Huckabee is the only one I really fear.

[TwilightGardener]

21. I thought so too, at one point. But he's got a lot of weaknesses, including

his own family. And I've heard him say some pretty darn stupid things.

[Dinger]

17. Other, Chuck Hagel If He Runs (nt)

[TwilightGardener]

20. Agreed. Everyone else, even Thompson, is weak, substanceless, or fatally flawed.

[rmgarrette64]

18. I'm actually worried about the 2008 election

This is hard to say. After the GOP almost died on the vine in 2006, I'm beginning to doubt our chances in 2008, at least with regards to the Presidency. I see a very strong bench in the GOP primaries - I voted for Giuliani as the biggest threat, but McCain, Romney, and Thomson would all be formidable candidates.

Against that, we have either Hillary or Obama (I'm already ruling out Edwards, I'm afraid.) I don't think Hillary has any chance at all - her negatives are simply too high. I can pin a lot of hopes on Obama, and if he were to run in 2012, or even 2016, I'd probably be more confident. Right now, I don't think he's seasoned enough in campaigning. We've already seen a few bad missteps, and I am afraid that would get worse.

We have Republican incompetence to run against, of course (the gift that keeps on giving...) I've been very disappointed in our Congress, as they appear to be trying to neutralize that advantage. Will it be enough? At this point, I just don't know.

Two months ago, I knew we would keep both houses and take the Presidency in 2008. Now, I think both the Presidency and the Senate are in play. That's not a good trend. On the plus side, what changed for the negative in two months can change for the positive just as quickly. On the bad side, it could continue...

R. Garrett

[TwilightGardener]

22. Romney, among those running. When the Thompson-hype dies down,

he'll still be there, being quietly ruthless while looking like a President and sunnily smiling.

[slackmaster]

23. I picked (Fred) Thompson

Because Giuliani has managed to alienate his own party to such a degree that many will vote third party or just stay home.

Bill Richardson could beat either one of them.

[flaminbats]

25. and...I picked Tommy Thompson!

wow ;)

[slackmaster]

26. Tommy Thompson is General Jack Ripper

[LBJDemocrat]

24. Huckabee

If you've seen him in the debates, you know what I mean.