Gallup: Despite Campaign,.Familiarity with Candidates has not changed

[illinoisprogressive]

According to Gallup, name recognition is what is driving polls right now. People are not anymore familiar with the candidates, despite the early campaigns than they were at the first of the year.
This means most of the polling is mostly due to name rather than preference for a candidate:


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May 24, 2007
Despite Campaign, Familiarity With Candidates Has Not Changed Substantially
Giuliani remains most positively evaluated; Clinton and Romney least so

by Frank Newport

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite the remarkably early start on this year's presidential campaign and the high-visibility presence of the major candidates on television news shows and in televised debates, the name identification of the leading candidates or potential candidates has not changed much so far this year.

Hillary Clinton has near universal name identification, the highest of any of the major candidates. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is known by more than 8 in 10 Americans, more than is the case for John McCain and John Edwards, whose familiarity ratings are around 80%. Barack Obama's familiarity is at 75%. There has been little change in any of these candidates' recognition factors over the last several months. The least-known of the group of seven political figures included in this analysis are former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who despite his acting role on prime time television, is known by less than 4 out of 10 Americans, and Mitt Romney, whose name ID remains below 50%.

Giuliani has the highest net favorable image of any of the major candidates, followed by Obama, Edwards, McCain, Fred Thompson, and finally Clinton and Romney. The net favorable ratings for several of these candidates -- including in particular Clinton -- have shown a decline through April, with a modest recovery in May.

Name Identification

This analysis deals with seven confirmed and potential presidential candidates -- Clinton, Obama, and Edwards on the Democratic side, and Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Fred Thompson on the Republican side. "Name identification" is defined for the purposes of this analysis as the percentage of adult Americans who know enough about the candidate to be able to give an opinion of him or her.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=27673

[draft_mario_cuomo]

1. Edwards' name ID has risen from 72% to 81% this year. Obama has gained 3 points

Edwards seems to be the exception to the rule. Romney has also gained 8% but he was starting at a lowly 38%.

What is interesting is that despite all the media coverage Obama has gotten his name ID has risen only three points this year. That is astonishing.

HRC, of course, has long had universal name ID.

[illinoisprogressive]

2. that is the point. Not to read anything into the polls as inevitable...

Old Hill has been around for ages and so her name recognition is high. Hence her polling. the other candidates are not that well known or their positions. This also points up the media ignoring people like Edwards and focusing solely on Hillary and cheerleading for her.
I expect this will change as the summer goes on.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. I agree. I was just surprised with Obama's number

It is odd that Edwards gained three times more than Obama did, despite the amount of press Obama has gotten (much more than Edwards)--particularly the heavy press coverage Obama enjoyed when he joined the race.

I do agree with your point. HRC has little room for growth and her high name ID inflates her national poll figures and her poll numbers in states that are being ignored right now. In Iowa and NH, where her name ID advantage is minimized, she does substantially worse relative to her showings in the national polls (i.e. 43% in a national poll while being at 16% in Iowa).

[JeffR]

3. Among other things, if accurate, this underscores that the early campaign

has nothing to do with the electoral process per se. It's all about grubbing for bucks and hoping for a chance to knee-cap the competition.

Hooray for democracy, huh?

[illinoisprogressive]

6. agreed. early campaign is a sham. Just a headache for all, including the candidates

I'm sure they hate it as well. they have to do uber campaigning and most have to do their jobs in congress and senate. the only one who would benefit is Hillary as she can have bill pinch hit for her.
it benefits the money people and the media only.

[JeffR]

7. Maybe, just maybe this drawn-out election cycle will force some candor

from both the press and the candidates, at some point. Real candor about things that are broken and how they might be repaired. Hard to believe a lot of people will settle for soundbites and endless, meaningless poll result regurgitation and Swiftboat-sniffing for 18 months, if they're already slow to recognize candidates.

I'm not optimistic, but I'll be waiting and seeing.

[BlueStater]

5. Fred Thompson is no Ronald Reagan

I kind of suspected that a lot of people wouldn't know who the hell he was. If the lazy bastard wants to be president, he'll have to work for it by running a competent campaign and won't get in just because he's an "actor".

[Tellurian]

8. Hillary maintains a strong, solid lead over Obama...even with Gore siphoning off 16 pts..

from the OP

May 24, 2007

Clinton Leads Obama Among Whites, Blacks, and Most Other Democratic Subgroups
Obama has widespread support for second place and ties her with high socio-economic groups

by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Not only does Hillary Clinton rank first among the leading candidates for the 2008 Democratic nomination in Gallup's national polling, according to data from an aggregated sample of over 3,000 interviews with Democrats conducted by Gallup since March, she monopolizes the position at the subgroup level among men, women, whites, blacks, young adults, and seniors. She also leads regardless of Democrats' religious affiliation and political ideology.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=27676