WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: As '08 Race Heats Up, Hillary and Rudy Remain on Top
....The status quo dominates the Line this month, as the race seems to have settled into something of a rhythm -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) are established as the frontrunners and the other candidates are lining up behind them....
***
As always, the No. 1 ranked candidate in each field is considered the most likely to win the nomination, based on where the candidates stand at this time....
***
THE DEMOCRATS
1. Hillary Rodham Clinton: Clinton's campaign has not been without bumps lately -- the leaked campaign memo suggesting that she skip Iowa, her confusing (and seemingly contradictory) rhetoric on funding the Iraq war. But by in large, she has weathered them well. Clinton's most obvious problem is the fact that she is in a dogfight in Iowa, with polls showing her running regularly behind former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and occasionally behind Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Clinton's Iowa team has been slow to come together, but former Gov. Tom Vilsack's (D-Iowa) endorsement should help organizationally over the long term. Clinton's biggest advantage in this race remains the sense that she will inevitably wind up as the nominee. A loss in Iowa -- no matter the expectations -- would poke a major hole in that balloon. Still, when you look at candidate, message, money and organization Clinton continues to look quite strong. For more on Clinton, see today's Post: "Books Paint Critical Portraits of Clinton." (Previous ranking: 1)
2. Barack Obama: It's not easy living up to the gigantic expectations that follow Obama everywhere. Being touted as the next John F. Kennedy is a tough burden for anyone to carry, even someone as uniquely talented as Obama. It's easy to forget that Obama has been a national figure for less than two years, but his occasional misstatements in recent weeks (vastly overestimating the number of people killed in a Kansas tornado being the prime example) speak to the fact that he is still adjusting to what it takes to run a national campaign. Unlike Clinton, who has been at this for years, Obama -- and his staff -- are still finding his limits, figuring out when he is at his best and, as importantly, when he is at his worst. Obama has sharpened his rhetoric on the war in Iraq, emphatically emphasizing his initial opposition to the conflict, in an attempt to deny Clinton the opportunity to blur the lines between their two positions. It's crucial for him to draw a bright line on the issue over the coming months. (Previous ranking: 2)
3. John Edwards: As the two frontrunners continue to struggle daily with the necessity of voting on a series of Iraq proposals on the Senate floor, Edward seems content to sit back and lob rhetorical bombs. Knowing that a compromise on Iraq funding was a near certainty, Edwards got out front on the issue by calling on Congress to avoid any sort of capitulation to the White House. Edwards rightly understands his niche in this race as the outsider and expertly used the Iraq funding vote to draw a stark contrast between himself and Obama and Clinton. That's not to say Edwards hasn't committed his share of mistakes. The $400 haircut was a stunning miscalculation for a candidate who has been through the national media meat grinder once before. And we still don't really get why Edwards was working for that hedge fund. But he is where he wants to be right now -- perceived as the most liberal of the Big 3 on the issue that animates the party's base like no other. (Previous ranking: 3)
4. Bill Richardson: Richardson's "Job Interview" ads are the most unique and, we think, effective of the early television campaign. One sign of how good the ads are is that his numbers appear to be bumping up a bit in Iowa and New Hampshire. Richardson missed an opportunity to stand out in the first Democratic presidential debate and may have even hurt himself a bit among insiders with his nervous performance. But he is a candidate with considerable political skills and, without question, the deepest resume among the Democratic candidates (singled out by none other than Lee Iacocca this week in an interview with PBS's Charlie Rose). And ... he's Hispanic. It's still hard for us to see Richardson disrupting one of the Big 3 unless they commit some major mistake. But he continues to be the candidate closest to joining the top tier. (Previous ranking: 4)
(NOTE: The Number 5 Democrat is Chris Dodd.)
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/05/the_friday_presidential_line_5.html#more
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
