Edwards, Obama lagging far behind HRC's 98% name ID

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Obviously, it is not surprising HRC leads everyone on this measure but the deficit Obama (23%) and Edwards (17%) face is substantial. HRC's substantial name ID lead helps explain the discrepancy between polls in Iowa and NH versus national polls and polls in individual states that the candidates are ignoring right now. The disturbing thing for Edwards and Obama is that they apparently have not raised their name ID significantly over the course of the year. Obviously, a large part of this is because the bulk of the public is not paying attention right now. Multiple Choice Mitt languishing at 46% is illustrative of this (although this is slightly ominous. Despite not even being known by most of the public, Romney manages to be within 9 points of HRC in a trial heat although he gets pummeled by Edwards and Obama, the former who keeps Romney under 30%. I will leave it for others to decide what this means...).

=="Despite the remarkably early start on this year's presidential campaign and the high-visibility presence of the major candidates on television news shows and in televised debates, the name identification of the leading candidates or potential candidates has not changed much so far this year," according to a new Gallup Poll.

The leading candidates, in order of familiarity with voters:

* Hillary Clinton - 98%
* Rudy Giuliani - 86%
* John Edwards - 81%
* John McCain - 80%
* Barack Obama - 75%
* Mitt Romney - 46%
* Fred Thompson - 38%

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/05/24/no_increase_in_name_recognition.html

[IndianaGreen]

1. Al Capone trumps Hillary on name recognition, so the point is...

What this also shows is that people have already made up their minds about Hillary, pro and con.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. Two points with respect to HRC

1) This helps explain why she does better in national polls and in "ignored" state polls than she does in Iowa and NH polls
2) It shows she retains a substantial advantage over Obama and Edwards. It is not surprising that she leads in name ID but the margin was surprising to me, especially in the case of Edwards who was the VP nominee in 2004.

You are right, though, people have made up their minds on HRC. They know her and have known her for years. There is nothing she can do 15 weeks before the election to reverse the image created of her over 15 years.

[JI7]

2. i really have to wonder about those who haven't heard of some of them

almost 20-25 percent haven't heard of Giuliani, Edwards, McCain, or Obama ? what is their daily life like ? do they purposely keep their life closed off to what is going on in the world ? like have no tv, radio, news sources ?

in Oprah's road trip it included a visit to some Amish people and even they kept up with the news by subscribing to something like Time Magazine.i doubt the Amish would be included in this as they probably don't have phones.

[snowbear]

6. I know plenty of people who don't follow the campaigns at all right now..

They're at work all day.. spend the evenings either at the gym, home watching movies, sports or other shows.. And on the weekends they're out & about..

They rarely if ever watch any of the cable news networks and only catch the local nightly news.

And it's not just where I live. I just spent time down in Florida and it was the same deal visiting my friends and family there. They simply weren't interested yet.

Every where I go, people definitely have their opinion of Bush -->

But aside from people I've run into on these political forums.. I can't tell you how many people have no clue who is running yet.

It boggles the mind. But it also makes you realize that we (we as in DU'ers) start thinking about the campaigns a LOT earlier than John Q. Public.

[JI7]

9. you are right, i know many people like that

but the names i mentioned have gotten attention that went beyond just political reporting on cable shows and things. they were major figures during major events. Giuliani and 9/11. i know he was no hero but we all remember the whoring he did and continues to do. i can see if they don't know Romney or Richardson, but Edwards ran on a major party national ticket.

but the people you describe, yeah, i know them and i feel like i'm living in another world when i'm around them sometimes. they have NO idea about any of the things that we on DU consider to be major events. many times they seem to think i'm strange for being interested in this. i told someone i was attending some campaign event and going on about how much i liked it and then responded with something like "uh, ok". and it always makes me angry so sometimes i avoid discussing things with the clueless.

[Czolgosz]

3. This is bad news for Hillary and good news for (yikes!) Romney.

Having decent polling numbers is good. And having a high name id is good. But having decent polling numbers coupled with moderate name id is a sign that the candidate has tremendous room for a growth in support. If you think of those who don't know you well as your principle audience for building new support, Hillary's prime audience for growth is only 2%. In contrast, Romney's prime audience for growth is a whopping 54%. In other words, Hillary hasn't exactly hit her ceiling, but she's got a very tough path to win new supporters (she has to win converts among those who already know her and already don't support her). Obama and Edwards have plenty of room to grow, but Romney - in comparison - has huge room for tremendous growth.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Good post, you are exactly right

This suggests Romney may bury Giuliani once he gets well known. He is already doing that in Iowa and NH, where he has went from nowhere to having a commanding lead in just 2-3 months. Good! He is the weakest of the "big three" Republic party candidates.

[IndianaGreen]

7. If Romney and Hillary are the nominees and face each other in the debates

will Mitt leave Big Dog alone in the same room with his wife? The Clintons are the mother's milk of political tabloids.

[silverojo]

8. HRC's "recognition" isn't necessarily a good thing

All the right-wingers and most of the moderate Republicans, and now even some anti-war liberals hate her guts.

Just because people KNOW you doesn't mean they LIKE you.

And, as others have said here, people just aren't paying attention to the primaries yet. Wait till 2008, and THEN we'll see what happens.