My predictions.

[Meldread]

Can anyone else feel the coming storm? I can hear the thunder just out in the distance, the roaring sound of the wind, I can almost feel the calm and unearthly stillness right before it hits. I am rather shocked that a scandal like this is coming from Kerry and that he didn't learn from Bill Clinton's mistakes. I'm disappointed. When he went under the magnifying glass I was expecting to hear about a few mostly non-issues probably at most a few tax evasions, unpaid parking tickets, and maybe a DUI. Nothing on this scale -- most of the stuff that is "yesterdays" news as soon as it's reported.

If the exit polls are to be believed then John Kerry is favored over the others because people by and large believe he can beat George W. Bush. So this gives me the theory that his campaign and race to the nomination is mostly built on hot air and steam. What will happen once this hits the national media and is reported 24/7 like the Howard Howl? Will Kerry's campaign explode like a busted balloon? I am not entirely sure, but I am rather certain that it will pave the way for someone else to be a serious challenger. This is the break Edwards and Dean have been holding out for.

I think Edwards will be the obvious benefactor of this news. Dean has already gone thorough a through beating by the media. Voters will race to the new flavor of the month. However, I've always been under the impression that Edwards has been running for Vice President. I mean after all it seems strange for someone to run for President with such little experience. Although now I think he's trying to have his cake and eat it to -- he's trying to make a serious bid for the Presidency but at the same time trying not to step on any toes in hopes of becoming the Vice President if he doesn't get it. However, the real crippling blow is the fact that he opted out for the federal matching funds.

That is where Dean comes in. Edwards will not be able to get his message out as effectively as Dean. Dean will have the ability to raise money -- the very fact that he can still raise money never fails to amaze me. (Generally by now he'd be lucky to get $1,000 a day.) If Kerry deflates the question is: Who is waiting in the wings to be the obvious challenger?

This is the break that both Dean and Edwards have been waiting for. They are both no doubt salivating at the prospects of finally knocking Kerry off the high pedestal he has been placed on. Edwards is leaving Dean to do the dirty work just in case Kerry is able to keep up his momentum and ride it all the way to the convention. (Thus still giving him a shot at becoming Vice President.)

It doesn't matter if the allegations against Kerry are true or false. If or rather *WHEN* they are reported it will be damaging enough. People remember what happened to Bill Clinton. Most people got sick of hearing about it, and the question in everyone's minds will be: "Do I really want to hear about John Kerry's penis for the next 4 years?"

If I were Dean I would make a call to Judy. Get her back out and onto the stage. Show how much they love each other and how committed they are as Husband and Wife. Send the message to the American People, subconsciously, "I would never cheat on my wife, see how much I love her? Vote for me."

Yes folks, things are heating up and the storm is coming. Who will be left standing?

[gWbush is Mabus]

1. i completely agree

prepare to get flamed though (I did)

[Norquist Nemesis]

17. Me too

Although I've always 'leaned' Dean, I have tried to consciously make an effort to be open minded. Clark or Edwards have been the others that have inspired me also, but have remained the choice behind Dean.

Just over the last two or three days, Clark has 1) dropped *duh!*; 2) endorsed Kerry; and 3) his campaign sent an email to me after he dropped asking for a $100 donation to get my name on a thank you plaque for Clark. I must admit, the third thing really ticked me off. To send an email like that THEN endorse and join up with Kerry...well...it just doesn't sit well with me.

So, Dean and Edwards for me. I like Kucinich. I just think he is more effective as a state rep for us at this point in his career. Edwards has run a clean, upbeat campaign from most of what I've seen and has stayed above the fray. He's just a little too...um...hawkish IMO. Maybe that's just election year politics to be stronger on national defense, but the IWR decision bothers me. Play into that their wives (which always becomes an unavoidable factor), both a phenominal ladies...highly intelligent, independant, well-educated, well-spoken, and down to earth, IMO.

[lancdem]

2. You have no idea if Kerry is even guilty, and neither do I

Whether they are true or not DOES matter. Do you really think the GOP wouldn't try this tactic against our other candidates? That's the way they operate.

[Meldread]

19. Oh, I agree.

We don't know, and yes to some degree it DOES matter. However, try and put yourself in the position of the average voter. Not one of us who actually pays attention. Half the people are going to believe it's true even if it's proven false.

If it wasn't after Bill Clinton then it wouldn't be that big of an issue. Clinton was able to shrug something like this off, but I don't think Kerry will be able to. Why? Because OF Bill Clinton. It's going to be "guilt by association". Is it wrong? Of course, but that's politics. Kerry is going to be seen as guilty before he even has a chance to prove his innocence.

You can almost feel the media salivating at the prospect of reporting this story. Like starving wolves, mouths agape, and saliva dripping from their hungry sharp teeth. They are just waiting for the opportunity to pounce -- to rip flesh from bone.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

3. wrong

this is no opportunity for anyone. Rather it's failed opportunism. This is just the first in a wave of RW attacks. If the RW thinks this is going to hurt Kerry (ie Bush gets votes because of Kerry's infidelity) i say let them continue to think so.

You can bet your ass Kerry has arrows in his quiver as well.

[JCMach1]

4. If Kerry lied on Imus today, he is done

I just don't know at this point and will wait on the evidence.

It won't change who I am voting for anyway.

[mojo2004]

13. How could Kerry have lied?

All he said was there is nothing to talk about.

[JVS]

31. If it turns out that there is something to talk about then it will be bad

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Kerry will be left standing

becuase these allegations are built on hot air and steam.

[Atlant]

9. Mortally wounded, but still standing, until Tuesday, November 2nd. (NT)

[bushisagungrabber]

6. He already did that

If I were Dean I would make a call to Judy. Get her back out and onto the stage. Show how much they love each other and how committed they are as Husband and Wife. Send the message to the American People, subconsciously, "I would never cheat on my wife, see how much I love her? Vote for me."

He was on with Judy in a tv interview. Howard Dean was acting like a newlywed, Judy was acting like herself, and Judy, inadvertently, made Diane Sawyer look unattractive.

[Meldread]

20. I know. I saw it.

But he has to do it again after the shit about Kerry hits the fan. To reinforce the image.

[Cheswick2.0]

7. I wouldn't be shocked if the media waits to really hit this

until after Kerry is the nominee, if he is. Then I think he chooses Edwards or Evan Bayh and we limp along through a miserable fall until bush if finally elected for the first time.

[MoonRiver]

11. Such profound optimism is truly inspiring.

:wtf:

[MoonRiver]

8. I feel an avalanche of bull shit coming down on our collective

DU pinhead. Fortunately I doubt if Kerry or the electorate will even notice.

Kerry/Clark '04!!!!!!! :kick: Repuke arse!!!!!!!

[West Coast Democrat]

10. I'm with you, saywhat.

The past couple of days, this board has just a bunch of fodder for Free Republic....Nothing more.

[sadiesworld]

12. Concur with Kerry/Clark ticket

We need warriors.

[On the Road]

14. It's Entirely Possible

We'll just have to see. A race down to Edwards and Dean would be interesting. Dean's support is harder-core but he has been damaged. It depends on whether enough voters will give him a second look.

What I'm even more afraid of is if the allegations are proven true afterKerry has sewn up the nomination.

[Meldread]

21. So true.

It's better to come out now than later. If it's proven false then that takes one big bullet from the Republicans as they move closer and closer into November. Better now than in November. And it even benefits us because it gives people time to give the other candidates a second look.

[jmoss]

15. good point--we had a thread re. this yesterday....

.......and, the way this will play out, will result with our Dem ticket reading, " Edwards -Pres.----Dean-VP"

By the way, check out John Edwards on Jay Leno tonight.

He knows how to get alot of "bang for his buck"!

[CWebster]

16. It depends on how the media chooses to spin it

One of things many overlook is, when Dean was effectively ostrisized by the most deliberate media campaign to smear a contender(it was actually scary)i have ever witnessed, they not only played the same footage around the clock, but they attempted to mold consensus, by interviewing seemingly randomly chosen man-on-the-street characters, who all echoed the same disdain for Dean.
The fix was in.
Whether they will orchestrate the same treatment for Kerry we have yet to see. Will they be hesitant about targeting Dean so much since they already admitted their overkill campaighn?

[Meldread]

24. I agree.

If they do something like that Kerry is finished and done for. When people actually started to think for themselves then that's when they said: "WTF? The guy just screamed what's the big deal? Why do I have to keep listening to it over and over?"

It's hard to dismiss this. This is something that isn't going to go away, and while people might get sick of hearing about it, it's gonna stick.

The scream hurt Dean, only because it gave people time to take a step back and give the other candidates a second look. The scream itself didn't hurt Dean as some people believe. (I mean, I really don't think there is this large group of former Dean Supporters who were some how emotionally scarred by the Howard Howl. Most people I talked to found it inspirational and a bit funny because it was so over the top.)

[frankly_fedup2]

18. Kerry's alleged affairs.

This is deja voodoo. It started during Clinton's campaign, AND it's still going on against the Clintons. Of course, they did wait until Clinton was the democratic nominee.

The Republicans, for some reason, want Howard Dean. I suppose they feel Dean cannot beat bush. Now, after all the character assassination, he probably couldn't. The media has stomped Dean into the ground regarding his squeal and his temper tantrums (they claimed). Now . . . the man never smiles, he is too guarded with his responses to questions, and seems to have lost the heart in it all.

Now Limbaugh today is quoting that a woman (sic) said she was hit on by Kerry in a bar, and that his hit-on lines were so cheesy that she asked Kerry if this was the best he could do, and that she actually wrote down his cheesy lines. Of course, this is gossip, but he is presenting it as fact.

No proof . . . why would they need proof. Have they called Ken Starr yet???? They probably cannot afford him now. After all, He may not get the 70 million he had to investigate Clinton with because there is no money under this administration left.

What worries me is that the Republicans may come up with their own 2004 Paula Jones to state she was the female. I'm sure whomever it will be, she will have low self esteem, and then they will promise her plastic surgery for her service to them. This is just my opinion of course. I have no proof. Oh, I'm not psychic either.

[MoonRiver]

22. Whatever they come up with will be countered by pictures of

Alabama National Guardsmen stating on MoveOn.org ads that for an entire year they never once saw AWOL report for duty. Given the choice of somebody with a roving eye (assuming any of this bs sticks) and an AWOL warmongering lying scoundrel, who do you think people are going to choose?

[NoSunWithoutShadow]

27. Good. And I hope MoveOn.org uses the phrase

"George W. Bush cheated on his country!"

(I think I read that here yesterday.)

:)

[Meldread]

28. That's cute, but....

I hope they wait until AFTER Kerry gets the nomination. I'd prefer it if people stayed out of it until there was no possible hope for Dean or Edwards.

[Meldread]

25. Exactly.

Kerry is going to be assumed guilty before proven innocent. It's going to be a case of "guilt by association". It's flawed logic, but that's how it's going to work. "Clinton was guilty of sleeping with Monica so by supporting John Kerry you are supporting what Clinton did with Monica." People will believe it and act on it. Why? I don't know, but people will -- people are by and large idiots. This type of flawed logic happens all the time. It's called guilt by association.

[Whitacre D_WI]

23. All I know is....

First of all, let me be clear. I don't give a rip whether the allegations are true or not, unless there was some abuse of power involved. I don't care who gets down with whom, period. It doesn't make a bit of difference as to whether someone is capable of leading our country.

That said, I listened to RW radio on the drive home last night (Mark Belling, for you Wisconsinites out there). Again, not because I care if it's true, but because I DO care about the spin.

And you know what? The right is SCARED.

1) They're scared that this thing will turn out NOT to be true, thereby strengthening Kerry and making Rove & Co. look like weasels for (whether they did it or not) leaking the story.

2) They're scared that this story WILL prove true as well. Because if it's big enough to blow Kerry out of the water now, this early, that means an Edwards nomination. And the Bushies are FAR more frightened of an Edwards candidacy than a Kerry candidacy.

None of this affects how I'm going to vote next Tuesday. I was not going to vote for Kerry (though I will in November if he's the nominee) anyway, I was not going to vote for Edwards (though I'm pulling for him to be the nominee, since that's not gonna happen for DK). All this means is that the RW is running scared. If they leaked this, they made a big mistake; and if they didn't leak this, they're going to get blamed anyway (and maybe get a tougher GE opponent thrown in as well).

[Meldread]

26. Well I don't think the RW leaked it.

I think the Clinton's did. Sound crazy? Not really. It's pretty much taken as fact that Hillary is going to run for President in 2008. Another 4 years of Bush will put her in that perfect position. If Kerry runs against Bush and wins then she would have to either wait to 2012 or run against an incumbent. (Who may or may not have done a good job.) Too much risk for the Clintons. Strategy: Wound him early on so a scandal hangs over his head throughout the process.

Although I think things happened a little faster than they wanted them to. Clark might have slipped up and let the cat out of the bag. (He's not a politician after all.) They no doubt wanted hold out until after March 2nd.

[bobbieinok]

29. 'why do you hate the Clintons so much????'

...

[Meldread]

32. I don't hate them.

I don't like them all that much either. Although it mostly had to do with his policies. (Such as DOMA.)

That doesn't change the theory. As the person stated above Rove has very little to benefit from this. When you are looking for a suspect you always look for the person with the most to gain. That person would be Hillary.

I don't have anything personal against the Clinton's though. Our only real friction would come from DOMA and his involvement with the DLC. Frankly this has DLC fingerprints all over it. It's their MO.

[yellowcanine]

Appears to me you have accepted the Drudge version of reality.

"I am rather shocked that a scandal like this is coming from Kerry and that he didn't learn from Bill Clinton's
mistakes. I'm disappointed."

Someone who had an appropriately skeptical mind about internet rumors could not make a statement like that.

[Meldread]

33. That's taking what I said out of context.

I never said I didn't believe or believed the story. Frankly, I don't think it's an out and out lie -- there must be something there. I don't think Drudge would risk looking as totally unreliable unless there was something. It's a big story and it will get Drudge lots of attention, and if it turns out not to be true it'll be negative attention. So no I don't think it's an out and out lie. Does that mean he had an affair? I don't know. It could have been just an innocent friendship mistaken for an affair.

So does that make me skeptical? Sure. However, as I've said in another post within this thread it doesn't change the fact that this is going to hurt Kerry. It doesn't matter if it's true or false it's still going to hurt him. How bad it hurts him depends on how long it goes on and how much circumstantial evidence is placed before the public.

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