Third Post Debate Poll (Gallup): Clinton Rebounds to 15 percentage-point lead over Obama

[wyldwolf]

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has rebounded to a 15 percentage-point lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken after the candidates' first debate.

Clinton is the only contender in either party to show movement outside the poll's margin of error. She is the choice of 38% of the Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters surveyed, up 7 points from a survey taken three weeks earlier. Obama is at 23%, 3 points lower than before.

Without Al Gore in the race, Clinton's numbers improve to 45% and Obama's to 27%. Edwards loses 4% with Gore not in the race.

If the race narrows to just Clinton and Obama, Clinton gets 56% to Obama's 37%.

Further, Clinton is the overwhelming second choice of Democrats at 60%, with Obama at 46%.

Clinton's favorable/unfavorables have inproved as well. She is now view favorably by 50% of respondants vs. 47% unfavorable. That is an improvement over the last Gallup poll where her numbers were 47/49.

In contrast, John Edwards has a 49% approval / 31% unapproval / 9% never heard of / 9% no opinion.

Obama has a 50% favorable / 24% unfavorable / 13% never heard of / 12% no opinion.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-05-07-poll-2008_N.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-05-07-poll.htm

[juajen]

1. Go, Hillary!

She is one smart woman.

[nolabels]

2. I like to read the fine print of corporate produced items

Five plus five is ten and ten minus.........which are numbers massaged to get the results desired

Reading the bottom of the poll should at least make people think considering the who produced it

from the bottom:

(snip)
For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 427 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 491 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
(snip)

BTW, what the hell is a leaner anyway :shrug:

[paulk]

3. looks like HRC won the first debate...

It's going to be an interesting primary...

[jaysunb]

4. Just keep massaging those polls...

you'll get whatever answer you're looking for. :evilfrown:

[wyldwolf]

5. I did not embellish these results at all. I did not spin them at all.

:shrug:

[jaysunb]

19. You are not the pollster...

I didn't mean to imply YOU had anything to do with it....

[BeyondGeography]

6. Her unfavorable number is still absolutely abysmal

McCain, who has been around just as long as HRC, polls at 30% unfavorable, which is an amazing number. And he has been consistently around 30% for the past two years. His low unfavorables have held steady while Clinton's have gone up this year from the low 40's to the high 40's.

Also, Edwards, who has been running for President since 2003, actually declines from 16% to 12%, not a great result.

That said, the debate was obviously a plus for Clinton and, on a national scale, a near-term negative for Obama. South Carolina primary voters said he won the debate, so I'd be interested to see the latest state numbers to see if the debate has had the same effect there.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Right. No doubt, those high unfaves do not bode well if Hillary gets the nomination.

I hope Dems think "long term" and put their eggs in a "more likely to win" basket.

Cheers!

[SaveElmer]

13. And is nearly identical...

To the negative number Bill had in mid 1992...when he was running third to Bush and Perot...

And is only slightly higher than Gore's in 2000


Both of those guys got their negatives back into the low thirties, and I have no doubt Hillary will do the same thing...

Campaigning matters, and if her debate performance can be considered a harbinger, she will do quite well...

[BeyondGeography]

16. Unfortunately, the only time she's been in the 30's since 1993

was during the Lewinsky scandal.

<Sen. Clinton is often described as an intensly polarizing figure, and there is some evidence for this in the levels of her "unfavorable" ratings. These rose sharply in 1993-94 as she took on non-traditional policy roles while first lady. But having reached 40% unfavorable by 1995, they have rarely dropped below that. Only during the Lewinsky scandal did unfavorable drop to around 30%. Since then it has remained in the ball park of 40%, but at times rising to around 45%.>

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/08/hillarys-image-1993-2006.html

What surprises me is McCain's consistently low unfavorable rating, given his unflinching support of a disastrous war and his current unpopularity in his own party.

[SaveElmer]

18. SHe has never campaigned for President before...

When she does campaign, and people get to know her rather than the caricature the media has created, people have a better view of her. She only needs to drop it 15 points or so...

[Adelante]

8. Edwards loses 4% with Gore not in the race.

I wonder why that would be.

[SaveElmer]

9. Who cares about Gallup...Rasmussen...

Is the truly accurate poll and in that one Hillary is behi.... oops she is ahead there too...

Oh what poll to believe now!!!

[rinsd]

12. Ask and ye shall receive

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

Someone threw this at my yesterday. Check out the cosponsor. ;-)

[Alamom]

17. Wanting to see F. Thompson, Newt or Colin run should have been a clue......

This could not be a real poll, of concern anyway.

And, they have Al & Newt tied..... x(




"When asked who else they would like to see run for the nomination, among those who offered a name, the top picks were Republican Fred Thompson (6%), Democrat Al Gore (4%), Republican Newt Gingrich (4%), and Republican Colin Powell (3%)."

[Bitwit1234]

10. Hmmm other places have her at 18 and 20.

[rinsd]

11. Name a single poll that show her numbers that low.

[wyldwolf]

14. the unofficial poll at the latest "Drinking Liberally?"

... The Berkley Young Progressives Club?

[rinsd]

15. Hey I was in the bathroom when they voted!

:hi:

[wyldwolf]

20. should have cast your napkin ballot before you left

[nolabels]

21. Also notice how they feel the need to try and throw dirt on the Democratic front runners

and list the Republicans first (probably to get their name out there among other things). Yet it would be sacrilegious for them to list rifts and controversial disagreements between Republicans.

The focus on the negative or perceived negative about Democratic party and never asking about any republican scandals going on is also quite obvious. I might be biased but picking apart the republican cheerleaders aka. corporate owned media also seems like an obvious thing to do.