McCain, Edwards Lead in Iowa (Angus Reid Global Monitor poll)

[JohnLocke]

McCain, Edwards Lead in Iowa
Angus Reid Global Monitor
Saturday, May 5, 2007
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John McCain is the most popular 2008 United States presidential hopeful for Republican Party supporters in the Hawkeye State, according to a poll by American Research Group. 26 per cent of likely GOP caucus voters in Iowa would support the Arizona senator in 2008.
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 19 per cent, followed by followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 14 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 13 per cent, and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with eight per cent. Support is lower for Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, and former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore.
In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, former North Carolina senator John Edwards is first with 27 per cent, followed by New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton with 23 per cent, and Illinois senator Barack Obama with 19 per cent each. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joe Biden, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.
(...)
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Read the rest here.

[Lobster Martini]

1. At the risk of stating the obvious...

Either Iowa differs dramatically from the rest of the country--not impossible, and I don't live there--or this poll is just plain wrong. No other poll has McCain and Edwards leading. Not expressing an opinion, just pointing out that this poll differs from every other poll. As I said, stating the obvious.

[Pirate Smile]

3. A poll came out earlier in the week showing McCain leading in IA, NH, and SC.

I'll find it for you.

Edwards has been leading in Iowa for a long time.

edit to add - Here you go:

New Polls: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

The American Research Group has new polling results for the Democratic and Republican presidential caucus/primary races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Iowa:
Edwards 27%, Clinton 23%, Obama 19%
McCain 26%, Giuliani 19%, Romney 14%, F. Thompson 13%

New Hampshire:
Clinton 37%, Edwards 26%, Obama 14%
McCain 29%, Romney 24%, Giuliani 17%

South Carolina:
Clinton 36%, Obama 24%, Edwards 18%
McCain 36%, Giuliani 23%, F. Thompson 10%

Key observations: Edwards leads Clinton among women in Iowa 32% to 26%. McCain is regaining strength among independents (47% in Iowa, 33% in New Hampshire, and 36% in South Carolina) while also leading among Republicans.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/05/01/new_polls_iowa_new_hampshire_south_carolina.html

The Dem numbers seem like nothing unusual.

The Republican numbers are what struck me - perhaps I haven't paid all that much attention to the Republican state numbers.

The conventional wisdom has so consistently been spouted about Rudy's big lead in national polls that it did surprise me to see McCain leading in these important states.

His many obituaries seem to have been a bit premature.

edit to add standard caveat - yeah, it is early, polls don't necessarily mean anything, blah, blah, blah.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3245148

[skipos]

5. And the good news is that Edwards beats McCain in most polls

I still worry about McCain's faux "hero" status though.

Diageo/Hotline Poll April 26-30
McCain 45 Clinton 45 - CLINTON TIES MCCAIN
McCain 37 Obama 48 - OBAMA WINS BY 11%
McCain 37 Edwards 48 - EDWARDS WINS BY 11%

Rasmussen
Candidate / Def. FOR / Def. AGAINST / Net

Obama / 33% / 33% / Even
Giuliani / 29% / 34% / -5
Thompson / 19% / 29% / -10
Edwards / 26% / 37% / -11
McCain / 23% / 35% / -12
Romney / 17% / 33% / -16
Clinton / 30% / 48% / -18

McCain 44 Clinton 48 - CLINTON WINS BY 4%
McCain 38 Edwards 47 - EDWARDS WINS BY 9%
McCain 42 Obama 48 - OBAMA WINS BY 6%

[Lobster Martini]

8. All right, I'll eat crow--Iowa is different from the rest of the country

Just checked both Gallup poll and Rasmussen Reports--still looks like a tie between Clinton ahd Giuliani, maybe not in Iowa, but elsewhere.

(edited because puppy needed to go out.)

[Liberty Belle]

15. Edwards is on fire lately - check this great speech in CA:

Please enjoy this electrifying video of John Edwards speaking at the California Democratic Convention:

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid824514808/bclid823481482/bctid823347212

[andykef]

2. Biden's on the rise

Biden's numbers are rising up from 2% to 6% in one month. That is 200% increase.
I think after last week's debate Joe Biden is going to start coming a solid 4th in most polls. I doubt he will be the nominee but look out for him being a smart VP pick for a candidate like Edwards who could be weak on national security due to being out of office.

[jillan]

16. Wow - really?

Up to 6% - I'm happy. Not as happy as I would be if he had numbers like Hillary or Obama.
It's early yet.

I don't think Biden will go for VP.
Maybe a cabinet position?

[skipos]

4. Richardson from 1% to 5%. Nice. Glad to see Hillary and Rudy falling off too

I feel that Rudy is one of the stronger Repubs, and Hillary one of the weaker Dems as far as general election candidacies go.

[andykef]

6. Go Richardson

Yeah I agree I like Richardson's numbers as well. I think it is important that the second tier candidates stay viable. I personally am not too happy to see Edwards as the nominee as I think he lacks gravitas. Obama was also worrying after last week's debate.
Clinton remains the front runner I could see a Clinton/Richardson ticket for example.
Fred Thompson on the GOP side is a concern as the GOP might try to sell him as Reagan 2 and he will perform well on TV / Debates. Democrats need to look at who can beat Thompson.

[skipos]

9. Who can beat Thompson

Here are some Rasmussen polls...

Thompson 44 Clinton 43 - CLINTON LOSES BY 1%
Thompson 37 Edwards 47 - EDWARDS WINS BY 10%
Thompson 37 Obama 47 - OBAMA WINS BY 10%

I am well aware that polls this far out are not the end all be all.

All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses, but my biggest concern is that our primary frontrunner, Hillary, has really ominous general election numbers, favorable/unfavorable numbers, and "would you definitely vote for/against" numbers.

THough it would probably never happen, I think an Richardson/Obama (or reverse) ticket would be interesting because their strengths and weakness totally complement eachother. Obama is able to inspire, but doesn't have a ton of experience. Richardson has a ton of experience, but isn't the engaging public speaker that Obama is.

[Adelante]

7. Small correction, JohnLocke

Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, conducted from Apr. 27 to Apr. 30, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

Angus Reid collects polls done by others.

Also it seems to be the same poll referenced above by Pirate Smile.

[seasat]

10. That's an interesting poll when you look at past months.

It appears that the front runners, Edwards (-6%) and Clinton (-11%), have declined in support since March. Obama is up 3%, Biden +4%, Richardson +4%, Kucinich +1%, Dodd +1%, and undecided +6%. However, the Margin of error is 4% and this period of the race is pretty volatile in in the polls. It'll be interesting if this trend continues. I looks like Iowa is becoming more competitive.

[Clark2008]

11. Ick.

[1932]

13. Nice contribution to the discussion.

[nevergiveup]

12. Edwards has

been campaigning in Iowa and had an organization here for 3+ years. He should win this state but his numbers at this point are not terribly convincing.

[Adelante]

18. This is from the DesMoines Register a couple of days ago

Observations regarding the poll in question.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070503/OPINION01/705030352/1035/opinion

On the Democratic side, something's clearly not working for Clinton in Iowa. She's lost a third of her support in a month, falling from 34 percent to 23 percent in the poll.

-snip

The good news for Edwards is that he's back to his old status as the front-runner in Iowa, although it was a strange way to get there. Clinton dropped 11 points and Edwards dropped only 6, a shuffle that leaves him 4 points ahead of her - which is an insignificant lead in a poll with a 4 percentage-point margin of error.

Obama has picked up 3 points to cement his third-place position in the race, though he's still not where he was in February, when he was at 23 percent.

It does look pretty fluid in Iowa at this early date, which is as it should be.

[Mass]

14. Actually ARG polls, FWIW.

[LaPera]

17. Truly happy Edwards is doing well, watch for the attacks from republicans...

the republicans (not to mention the media, some Dems & the DLC) do NOT want Edwards to succeed nor even in the race. Edwards is for real...and happily a fighter! http://johnedwards.com/splash/

[1932]

19. House...haircut...some "we the peoples" live in DC...

none of it seems to be working.

[Cameron27]

20. House & haircut won't hurt him IMO.