I'm feeling upbeat right now

[2004Donkeys]

For the past couple of days, I've been concerned that Bush might barely be able to eek out a win, with job loss numbers dropping and all. But even if these job loss numbers trend improves or even continues (both of which won't happen past May due to Peak Oil), Bush will doom himself on the WMD issue.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=544&ncid=703&e=2&u=/ap/20040213/ap_on_go_pr_wh/kay_interview">Kay Says Bush Slowing Intelligence Reform

This makes a Kerry Presidency very probable.

[AP]

1. I think if Kerry's campaign is organized around a reaction to Bush,

he'll have a hard time.

Kerry still has to present an identity that, in and of itself, is a compelling reason to vote for him over Bush regardless of what Bush does or doesn't do in the next year.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Look for a series of policy speeches starting next month.

They are already planning this, but of course, the primaries aren't quite over yet.

[2004Donkeys]

5. I'm sorry if I've implied that the primaries are over

Edwards still does have a long shot to win the nomination.

But I'm really pumped for the chances of the Democratic Party against Bush. I also see the Senate and maybe the House going Democratic.

[MercutioATC]

3. Not to rain on your parade, but Bush does have a weapon or two to use...

Assume that gas prices stay high. What do YOU suppose a President in election year would do in June or July?

...maybe dump a few million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve on the market? Short-term, it would lower fuel prices and kick-start the economy and would provide great economic numbers right before the election.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. And what would Bush's excuse be for that?

I don't know how much difference this would make anyway.

[MercutioATC]

8. High energy prices stifling the economy would be the excuse.

I think it WOULD make a difference. People respond to the issues thit hit theiw wallets. They gas up once or teice a week. To many, a 30-cent drop in gas prices is a major issue.

[2004Donkeys]

6. Side note, did Carter try this tactic in '80?

Unless you depleted the whole oil reserve, I don't see this reducing oil prices but for a few days just like when Clinton did this in 2000.

[tobius]

7. didn't work for gore

SPR release sparks political debate.

Nov, 2000, by William Garland

' "Release of 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with Al Gore leading the charge and proclaiming a new crisis, affirmed the national fixation on petroleum cost and supply." '

http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m3159/11_221/67642679/p1/article.jhtml

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. Yep it would be easy for Kerry to turn that to his advantage

[MercutioATC]

10. How??

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. By pointing out that Bush is using it for political gain and tying it into

Kerry's energy independence/national security policy -- which is a real political winner. When Kerry talks about not 'holding American soldiers hostage to Middle East oil' people connect.

[MercutioATC]

17. People aren't that far-sighted. They vote their wallet...TODAY'S wallet.

All Bush has to say is "I know things are difficult right now. I also know that the effects of terrorist attacks on our country have lasted much longer than anybody expected. What I don't understand is why my opponent takes issue with my attempts to boost the economy, provide jobs and put a few more dollars in your pocket."

Remember, a lot of people are still supportive of his tax "cuts" despite the fact that they saw almost no cut themselves and the "cuts" are doing long-term damage to our economy.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

11. Your link doesn't work

you have http:// in there twice

[2004Donkeys]

13. Sorry. Try this (I'm pretty sure you have already).

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=544&ncid=703&e=2&u=/ap/20040213/ap_on_go_pr_wh/kay_interview

[oasis]

12. Here's how I'll feel after we steamroll to victory in Wisconsin.

:party:

[Adjoran]

14. No cigar - I think AP is right

Kerry has a long record. He voted several times to cut intelligence funding. We would be walking into a Rove trap there.

AP is right. Democrats win with a positive vision of where to take the country, not by saying "Republicans are jerks!" The people who agree are already on board. The others elected the repubs in the first place.

We need a forward-looking message of prosperity and security if we are to win. We can certainly point out the repub failures, but that cannot be the centerpiece of a successful campaign.

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

15. So counterintuitive to mention Bush and Intelligence in the same breath.