John Nichols: Edwards Remains Very Much in the Running (The Nation)

[marmar]

BLOG | Posted 05/03/2007 @ 2:28pm
Edwards Remains Very Much in the Running
John Nichols


Three new polls from early caucus and primary states suggest that John Edwards, who has had a rough couple of months as a candidate, remains very much in the race for the Democratic nomination for president.

In Iowa, the first caucus state, an American Research Group survey of likely caucus-goers has Edwards at 27 percent. Hillary Clinton is next with 23 percent, followed by Barack Obama at 19 percent, Joe Biden at 6 percent, Bill Richardson at 5 percent, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich with 2 percent each.

In New Hampshire, the first primary state, an ARG poll has Clinton leads with 37 percent. But Edwards is next with a solid 26 percent. Obama has dropped back to 14 percent, while Richardson, Biden, Kucinich and Dodd are all at 3 percent or less.

In South Carolina, another early primary state, ARG's got Clinton at 26, Obama at 24, and Edwards at a respectable 18 percent. Everyone else is at 3 percent or below. Those numbers represent fall backs from several recent polls for both Clinton and Obama, while Edwards has strengthened following last week's debate in the state.

For Edwards, who has been battered in recent weeks by bad news about his wife's health and campaign missteps such as his costly haircut, the poll numbers represent very good news. They suggest that, despite challenges for his campaign, Edwards continues to enjoy some success in his effort to make himself the clearest progressive alternative to Clinton among the front runners.

Obviously, Clinton remains ahead, while Obama is very much in the competition -- even if those New Hampshire numbers have to be disappointing for the Illinoisan. But these numbers suggest that this is far from a Clinton-Obama race.

Edwards, who some had begun trying to count out of the competition, is actually in the states that, for better or worse, are likely to set the parameters of the 2OO8 Democratic competition going into the February 5 "super" primary voting in multiple states.

That a positive development for everyone who wants a race where ideas -- and Edwards has been the most serious policy-pusher among the major candidates so far -- remain in play and, potentially, definitional.

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=192157

[JohnLocke]

1. K&R, excellent article.

[David Dunham]

2. Obama's the one who is fading

[Czolgosz]

3. You don't have to tear Obama down to build up any other candidate.

Besides, the caucuses and primaries are 9 months away. Hillary, Edwards, and Obama will rise and fall and rise again several times between now and then.

[PresidentObama]

4. I don't believe he/she is tearing Obama down.

It's the truth. I've noticed Obama sort of fading for a while now. His saving grace is the connection many Americans all around this nation feel with him. I think Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are at good places right now, and so is Obama. But Obama has to grab back onto the spotlight.

I really think John Edwards is beginning to sort of break away from the third place, and gaining competitively towards a fight for second place with Obama. And Hillary, especially at the debate, is standing her ground as the frontrunner.

[Czolgosz]

5. All I'm saying is that a post about Obama fading isn't directly relevant to the good news in the OP

and we need not turn every post - especially those which start our with good news presented in a positive fashion - into a beat down the opponents thread.

I agree that Obama's polling numbers, particularly in the early primary and caucus states (which are all that really matters at this point), haven't been busting through the roof. I also agree that Edwards, with his positive and detailed agenda to do some real good in America, has been rising steadily notwithstanding the ridiculousness of the personal attacks on him here and in the MSM.

Notwithstanding Edwards's and Obama's rising and falling poll numbers, I'd rather keep a positive thread about Edwards's progress from turning into a negative thread about Obama's set backs.